Dropping after a win

[Harmonicaslim]

I know it doesn't come up a great deal, but I've always been perplexed about how to handle horses that drop down today after winning last out at higher level. Is there some longterm stats about them that anyone could share? Their were two last night at CT. One went right to the front and never looked back. The other was in the hunt early and then stopped like he'd been shot by a sniper from the clubhouse roof. Appreciate any thoughts.

Thanks,

Slim

[onefast99]

Was the second one the horse? If so the jockey should be ashamed of himself for that horrendous ride.

[Norm]

It helps to know who the "claiming stables" are on your circuit. They do that all the time. They like to claim a horse coming into form, win a race, drop him hoping for a second purse and praying he will be claimed because they only want him while he's hot. If the owner is not a well known claiming operation, then it's time to be suspicious.

[Tom Barrister]

In my one-year database, I come up with 28.4% winners, and an ROI of 0.87 . If the last race occurs within the past 30 days, the win percentage goes up to 30.9%, and the ROI is 0.94.

Slot/Casino revenue has increased purses so much that trainers are after the money and will risk a claim by dropping a horse down. When the winner's share of the purse is often as much as the claiming price of the race, trainers don't mind the chance of losing the horse for a few thousand less, in exchange for the increased chance of taking down a hefty winner's share.

[Harmonicaslim]

Thanks, Tom. Your stats confirm my hunch that it's better to avoid them.

Slim

[dav4463]

If there are more than one of them in the same race; I consider them as contenders if they fit. If only one, it is a suspicious move to me.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Tom Barrister

Slot/Casino revenue has increased purses so much that trainers are after the money and will risk a claim by dropping a horse down. When the winner's share of the purse is often as much as the claiming price of the race, trainers don't mind the chance of losing the horse for a few thousand less, in exchange for the increased chance of taking down a hefty winner's share.

I agree with Tom on this, as well....In addition to this I would add that, IMO, often when a horse has earnings this year that are equal or close to the earnings of the last year or two,(whether it may be year's end or pro-rated in mid-season) this may increase the likelihood that this horse is live, in that, when a horse has seemed to have established his earning potential or limit, a trainer may believe that this horse has peaked in his earning power for the year or mid-year, and that if he wins and is claimed, the received claiming price and the purse would only add to his earnings limit, and having his horse claimed will not hurt at all.......This may take on added significance late in the year...And special signifcance if the horse looks strong on Form/Speed, looking something like a sure-thing, as I don't think a trainer would risk losing his horse by not having a great shot to win, OR it would seem otherwise to be more a case of trying to dump this nag....This is the condition that I stipulate in order to play a Drop-down off a win......

best,

[raybo]

A last-out win combined with a class drop usually means small odds this time. I suggest looking at the horse as any other odds on favorite and see if he has the energy and running style for today's race. If not, then you have an overlay or 2, find them!

[SMOO]

Originally Posted by Tom Barrister

In my one-year database, I come up with 28.4% winners, and an ROI of 0.87 . If the last race occurs within the past 30 days, the win percentage goes up to 30.9%, and the ROI is 0.94.

This is actually pretty good, I might consider the horse as a single for pick 3-6's.

[zoobird]

Originally Posted by Norm

It helps to know who the "claiming stables" are on your circuit. They do that all the time. They like to claim a horse coming into form, win a race, drop him hoping for a second purse and praying he will be claimed because they only want him while he's hot. If the owner is not a well known claiming operation, then it's time to be suspicious.

I would think this is really the key. Depending on the stable, the meaning of the dropdown may be completely different. Some stables may do it routinely in an attempt to pick up purses. Others may only do it when they're trying to dump a horse that they know is damaged goods.

[classhandicapper]

To me, these sorts of "suspect" class drops are among the most difficult situations to deal with. I include other large drops below the recent price a horse was claimed for to be in the same category.

Typically, I like to look at how much the horse will earn if it wins/comes in 2nd, the price the horse was claimed for, how much it has earned since being claimed, the probable costs since claimed etc... to see if the class drop makes economic sense to the owner if the horse wins. If it does, I tend to be more forgiving. If the trainer wins with drops like that often I'm also more forgving.

I think most people handle these situations very poorly. Since I don't feel I'm much better at it than anyone else, I tend to pass the race if there is a horse like this in it.

Some people just throw them all out and like betting against them. I think that's a mistake.

While it's true they tend to not be profitable, they do win very often and the ROI is not so bad that you can feel like you are getting good value going against them.

It's a very tough situation because you don't if you are throwing out a cripple or a standout.

[Tom]

Watch out for 3 year old dropping this time of year. The inflated claiming prices for 3yos make it a good idea to drop for a win before the new year, when they will be outclassed at today's 3yo prices.

[Light]

It depends what you define as class drop. You could have a horse coming out of a win in a conditioned race such as $25kn2L dropping into 16k open.That's not a class drop to bridgejump. That's a class hike in the quality of competition,usually with negative effects.

Certain races have seemingly lower class but a higher purse. Thats not a negative.That's usually positive. You also have the other direction of horses looking like they are jumping up in class when they are actually going down in class like an open claimer $25k going into Alwn1x state bred. Higher purse, weaker competition.

[mountainman]

My feeling as a handicapper/racing official who has conversed with hundreds of trainers is that few read the condition book with precise profit margins in mind. Players may calculate the finances (ie purse+claiming price) when trying to analyze a suspicious drop, but horsemen think more about the underpinnings. Few will lower a sound runner in the wake of a win. Large barns can be an exception when conditions come into play. High-volume trainers tend to be brutally realistic about their stock, and realize that each condition burned does inexorably decrease a horse's value. Conversely, smaller outfits look to fall in love with horses, thus a class cut on the heels of victory would be a red flag.

Look at the big picture and beyond performance when sizing up shaky droppers. And don't assume that a winner went in sound. Sore droppers that would perhaps have been eased during the pre-supertrainer era now win with the help of modern chemistry. Sooner or later, though, such cripples pay the piper and leave players holding the bag. In the final analysis, as the roi posted earlier confirms, horses dropped right after winning make bad bets.

[Imriledup]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

To me, these sorts of "suspect" class drops are among the most difficult situations to deal with. I include other large drops below the recent price a horse was claimed for to be in the same category.

Typically, I like to look at how much the horse will earn if it wins/comes in 2nd, the price the horse was claimed for, how much it has earned since being claimed, the probable costs since claimed etc... to see if the class drop makes economic sense to the owner if the horse wins. If it does, I tend to be more forgiving. If the trainer wins with drops like that often I'm also more forgving.

I think most people handle these situations very poorly. Since I don't feel I'm much better at it than anyone else, I tend to pass the race if there is a horse like this in it.

Some people just throw them all out and like betting against them. I think that's a mistake.

While it's true they tend to not be profitable, they do win very often and the ROI is not so bad that you can feel like you are getting good value going against them.

It's a very tough situation because you don't if you are throwing out a cripple or a standout.

Very good post.

I think that some trainers just want wins and they'll devalue their owners assets in order to accomplish that goal.

I think that thoroughbred racing should announce the number of claims before the race. That way, if a horse is dropping from 20k to 5k and has 7 claims, you know that all the local trainers have looked that horse over and know he's ok to claim. But, a big dropper with 0 claims, well, that's a red flag. This claiming information is very valuable to knowing which droppers have holes and which ones do not.