Jonnielu At Keenland!! - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Maxspa · 10-30-2008, 07:34 AM

All,
Any comments from people who were involved with Jonnielu program at Keenland? Jonnielu has conducted some seminars at Gulfstream and of late at Keenland!
Just Curious,
Maxspa

point given · 10-30-2008, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxspa

All,
Any comments from people who were involved with Jonnielu program at Keenland? Jonnielu has conducted some seminars at Gulfstream and of late at Keenland!
Just Curious,
Maxspa

Could you explain, i havenot heard of this ?

Maxspa · 10-30-2008, 12:47 PM

Point Given,
Jonnielu is the handicapper that created his own figures called "Ability X"
ratings. He also has an on track "visual" package. At Gulfstream he would go to the paddock and relay horse information back to his subscribers. it would help them identify horses that visually looked ready to win!
One poster implied that people don't win at the races and he challenged that person with a free subscription to his service at Keenland. I was interested in finding out how that person and others that signed up for his service made out!
Maxspa
P.S. This message is for information only, I'm not trying to promote this service!

Maxspa · 11-01-2008, 08:58 AM

All,
Since no one has commented,

THEY MUST HAVE HAD A LOSING EXPERIENCE!

Maxspa

jonnielu · 11-01-2008, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxspa

All,
Since no one has commented,

THEY MUST HAVE HAD A LOSING EXPERIENCE!

Maxspa

Hey Max,

This would assume that there are some on this board, or some that read this board, that took the seminar and also care to comment.

Do you suppose that to be a fair assumption to make?

jdl

ddog · 11-01-2008, 10:59 AM

it's a big board??

jonnielu · 11-01-2008, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ddog

it's a big board??

That much is true, dog. And, the overwhelming majority don't have much to say, although they may be avid lurkers.

What Max has thrown up does create an interesting thread.

There are so many here that wholehearted believe that if someone truly knew much about winning in this game... they would be pretty tight-lipped, if not totally silent.

But, then the assumption of failure is quickly made when no commentors jump in.

jdl

Maxspa · 11-01-2008, 02:05 PM

Jonnielu,
A lot of assumptions here! One if the person on this board did take you up on your offer and had a good experience. He should in my opinion give credit to your program. Now if he didn't take advantage of your offer then that's another scenario!
I thought since you are involved in many board discussions that you would have read the original message and filled us in with what really happened! I for one was simply interested in how your program progressed at Keenland!
Maxspa

jonnielu · 11-01-2008, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxspa

Jonnielu,
A lot of assumptions here! One if the person on this board did take you up on your offer and had a good experience. He should in my opinion give credit to your program. Now if he didn't take advantage of your offer then that's another scenario!
I thought since you are involved in many board discussions that you would have read the original message and filled us in with what really happened! I for one was simply interested in how your program progressed at Keenland!
Maxspa

Hey Max,

The person you are thinking of did not take advantage. I saw the original post, but thought it more appropriate to stay out in case there were some board members that did want to respond. If it is not mentioned, I don't know if anyone is a member here or not.

I directed that seminar more at the local, newer, younger, not-so-much-a-handicapper crowd too. A few people that have been subscribing for a couple of months showed. They seem to be much more concerned about the prices going up then they are about "spreading the word". The "lone-wolf" mindset of the horseplayer seems to block a lot of positive feedback.

As far as how the ratings performed, I'd figure that any thing I had to say would sound too good to be true, I will admit that I dismissed the meetings high winner ($124.80), as "too fast" for a personal win bet. That comes from some of the handicapping habits that I still retain. Keeneland's director of mutuels was monitering the ratings through the meeting, you could ask him what he thought.

But, the question always comes back to, "will it make me a winner?" And my answer is still... that it can.

It seems to be a matter of how soon can you overcome some of your beliefs. Just like me, I still have to forget about what I think is "too fast" for the turf, so that I can get to 100% faith in the numbers.

Because the no-brainers are running all over the country.

jdl

Tom · 11-01-2008, 04:20 PM

Speaking of no-brainers.......

Number of bets _______

Number of wins _______

Win % ______________

Amount Bet _____________

Amount returned _____________

ROI _____________________

Tom Barrister · 11-01-2008, 05:06 PM

I went and looked at the website and some of the archived ratings with results. I'm afraid that I don't understand how the plays are chosen. The "orange" ratings and the favorite are the ones used for horizontal wagering, but there doesn't seem to be much logic to why each "orange" rating is chosen, e.g. they aren't always either the highest Ability-X rating or the highest early speed rating.

rrbauer · 11-01-2008, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Barrister

I went and looked at the website and some of the archived ratings with results. I'm afraid that I don't understand how the plays are chosen. The "orange" ratings and the favorite are the ones used for horizontal wagering, but there doesn't seem to be much logic to why each "orange" rating is chosen, e.g. they aren't always either the highest Ability-X rating or the highest early speed rating.

Would "mystical" be a good description?

jonnielu · 11-01-2008, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Barrister

I went and looked at the website and some of the archived ratings with results. I'm afraid that I don't understand how the plays are chosen. The "orange" ratings and the favorite are the ones used for horizontal wagering, but there doesn't seem to be much logic to why each "orange" rating is chosen, e.g. they aren't always either the highest Ability-X rating or the highest early speed rating.

In the winter of 1981, I was winning consistently for the first time at GP. To make it short, the way we were doing it was by letting everybody else do the figuring and jumping in on it after 3 were in the gate. After one 7f race, I was standing in line to cash a ticket on a 7 to 1 winner when the guy behind me asked how the hell I could figure that horse, and he was demanding an explanation since he was quite upset about it. He said that he had gone to MIT and he couldn't figure that horse. There was only one thing that I could tell him.

I told him that sometimes it just doesn't figure in the way that you would figure it. Actually, it practically never figures the way you would figure it, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't figure at all. It just means that the way you would expect it to figure may need some adjustment.

The un-expected continues to happen, so when do we start to examine our expectations and adjust them to what continues to happen, to the point that one day... it figures.

9th - 8.5fD
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

109 4 92 15 201
76 2 91 15 167
118 7 89 6 207
89 9 88 3 177
107 6 87 5 194
120 3 87 12 207
100 1 86 5 186
102 5 85 15 187
126 11 84 15 210
91 8 84 4 175
128 10 79 12 207

Let's wipe our brains clean for a minute, and bring just a few facts to mind.

The favorite, #9, has a 30% chance to win this race.

The number on the left is the horses ability to run 8.5f.

The average winner's par for this distance is 100 / 85 ES

A "run" number higher then par would suggest more running in the stretch, while a "run" number lower then par would suggest more running early. 100 is balance.

I'll also ask that you suppose, just for a little while, that time, class, surface, trainer, jockey, recency, won/lost.... etc. is extraneous information.

Take a shot with what you've got.

jdl

Tom Barrister · 11-01-2008, 11:25 PM

All of that doesn't explain why selections are made that don't have the high, low, or middle number in any of the three rating categories.

CincyHorseplayer · 11-02-2008, 01:43 AM

Don't worry Johnny.I think you are a self ordained chalk player genius but I believe in you!!!!.Not sure about your Keeneland picks,but I win more often than not and I think you do too.The hatred of that fact is deep.Take care...

And Oh let me quote Oscar Wilde,"To love oneself is the beginning of a lifelong romance"

Classic!!!!

Winning is a habit,as is non self hatred.

Tough sell on this board.