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Originally Posted by Bill Olmsted
Interesting. But I don't see the logic. Maybe the pos jockey switch is the tip off?
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The main logic is value: a horse not so much different from the rest of this field at what should be a price well above the risk one will be taking with the fact this is not the most likely winner. But he does have a chance and the price is most likely going to more than exceed what that chance is. In my opinion anyway.
On top of that here is a horse that is going to get his first fast track in about 6 months. One's who several catalyst factors that an could spark improvement; makes his third start against winners, he stretches out, has some speed, gets the rail and catches a modest pace.
Plus the trainer gets things done. Positive overall ROI. A huge positive ROI sprint-to-route. Positive ROI with longshots in general, positive ROI coming off a bad race, positive ROI at the Mountain...And a positive ROI with the jockey, who himself is holding an overall positive ROI.
All together I get a horse with reasonable pluses at what should be a price more than worthy of accepting the risk.
