Handicapping 101--Now Winners of Two Lifetime

[spilparc]

There is a handicappng problem that has perplexed me for quite some time.

In your typical NW2L race you have a group of horses who just recently broke their maidens. Then you have another group who broke their maidens a while back and have been running against winners.

Analyzing the horse(s) who just broke their maidens has always been a difficult feat. No horse in this type of race has ever done anything but break their maiden, yet it seems that the horses who have been running against winners, often regardless of whether they have shown any ability or not, do have an edge--by that I mean they seem to win much more than their fare share of races simply as a result of having competed against winners as compared to the more recent maiden graduate. Does that make sense?

It's difficult to analyze a horse who just broke his maiden, even if the win was in convincing style. They will often have the top speed and pace figures. They will often run up the track. The figures don't seem to mean as much in these kinds of races.

I tend to discount them. I often discard them completely. But they do win once in a while. Their maiden victory is often nowhere near as good as it looks. Yes, I know they are usually taking the biggest jump of their lives going from a maiden race to running against other winners--but what exactly is the criteria for handicapping these kinds of horses?

MSW weight winners are often good candidates to win NW1 allowance races, especially when facing candidates who have failed at NW1 multiple times. It's been my experience to favor the more lightly raced horse(s) in those situations.

But at the cheaper tracks where they card many NW2 liftetime claiming races it's a different story.

Am I correct to severly downgrade the recent maiden graduate to the point of practically ignoring most of them alltogether? How do you properly analyze this situation? When should they be regarded favorably, and when should they be tossed like yesterday's form?

[Imriledup]

Originally Posted by spilparc

There is a handicappng problem that has perplexed me for quite some time.

In your typical NW2L race you have a group of horses who just recently broke their maidens. Then you have another group who broke their maidens a while back and have been running against winners.

Analyzing the horse(s) who just broke their maidens has always been a difficult feat. No horse in this type of race has ever done anything but break their maiden, yet it seems that the horses who have been running against winners, often regardless of whether they have shown any ability or not, do have an edge--by that I mean they seem to win much more than their fare share of races simply as a result of having competed against winners as compared to the more recent maiden graduate. Does that make sense?

It's difficult to analyze a horse who just broke his maiden, even if the win was in convincing style. They will often have the top speed and pace figures. They will often run up the track. The figures don't seem to mean as much in these kinds of races.

I tend to discount them. I often discard them completely. But they do win once in a while. Their maiden victory is often nowhere near as good as it looks. Yes, I know they are usually taking the biggest jump of their lives going from a maiden race to running against other winners--but what exactly is the criteria for handicapping these kinds of horses?

MSW weight winners are often good candidates to win NW1 allowance races, especially when facing candidates who have failed at NW1 multiple times. It's been my experience to favor the more lightly raced horse(s) in those situations.

But at the cheaper tracks where they card many NW2 liftetime claiming races it's a different story.

Am I correct to severly downgrade the recent maiden graduate to the point of practically ignoring most of them alltogether? How do you properly analyze this situation? When should they be regarded favorably, and when should they be tossed like yesterday's form?

You want to UPGRADE the recent winner over the horses who have already 'toiled' at the level and still haven't gotten their 2nd lifetime win. The 'new shooter' is confident, where as the horses who've consistently lost, have learned the habit of losing.

Also, thoroughbreds are very fragile and if a horse breaks his maiden as a first time starter or 2nd time starter, you need to be careful backing a horse like that at a short price because those horses haven't proven that their first or 2nd lifetime start didn't 'kill' them. Always bet against 'one number horses'. If a horse has established form and comes from a conservative barn and took 3 or 4 starts to break his maiden and shows improvement each and every start, that horse is a better bet than a horse who wins as a FTS in a blowout win and now is going to the next level at reduced odds.

[GaryG]

Last out maiden winners with big speed figures will usually be found wanting at the NW1X level unless their pace figures are strong as well.

[Hank]

Unless you have some special insight into these type,dont waste time on them.You are trying to know the unknowable.I avoid nx1 and madien speicals UNLESS I have a REAL good reason not to,lets face it even in a bread and butter open claimer there are many unknowns, in these type the level of unknowns is just to high.

[cj's dad]

Are you saying that you would discount nearly completely a horse who has just broke his maiden in quite possibly his first outing against a group of horses who have run at this level before without sucess. Example: horse "a" breaks his maiden 5th time out and has now finished 2nd or worse 10 or so times. You are going to bet horse "a" against a horse who won last out?!?

[Robert Fischer]

a general concept that applies - "in racing what you Dont know Does hurt you"
- so if you really have unknown quantities that you can't accurately estimate then you should usually include them or pass the race all together if including the unknowns destroys the value.


When I am trying to estimate the chances of a last out maiden, I :
1. look at the form on paper (distance,purse,Odds, #of runners ,style of running, comments and jockey)
2. Watch the race several times - I am trying to guage the horse and the level of competition (was it too easy? did he dominate others strong attempts?)
3. consider the barn - a top barn will do better with last out maiden winners and they often win out, once "right", at least until they significantly step up in class.

[Good4Now]

IT seems I remember something about Maiden winners will win their next start about one out of 26 times.


Sometime between '85 and '95 the CTBA did a study of horses that broke their maidens at tracks in California. They followed them for two years afterwards using a base of horses that had cleared the maiden win in two consecutive years. I am sorry that I can't remember the number exactly but it was in the near 50 per cent area. At that time I don't think they were yet writing claiming races with restrictions as we have now.

[classhandicapper]

The best way of judging these horses is to have a very good understanding of the "typical" gap in class between the maiden graduate and winners in question.

If you have class PARs, it's easier to tell how big a move up in class the horse is taking. It varies between maiden claimers and MSWs and also varies seasonally on some circuits. It also helps to track how horses are doing coming out the various maiden races because the class range can be fairly wide. Some maiden fields are full of horses destined to be stakes horses and others are all terrible even though the class designation might be the same.

You can always also look at speed/pace figures and how impressively the graduate looked when winning.

You are correct to favor lightly raced horses, especially if they come from one of the better barns and have a decent pedigree. Those are more likely to improve. You aren't going to get much of a price with those horses, but at least you'll understand the horse's chances of winning better.

[FormalGold1]

Many maiden winners entered at the n2l condition faulter on the turn. Check the turn time of the maiden winner against today's field.

[ezrabrooks]

Most connections are to ambitious with their maiden claiming winners. I usually toss these types, unless they are reasonably placed.

Ez

[Suff]

NW1X and NW2L

Which conditions are people talking about? NW1X are generally much tougher fields, and NW2L are races where a first out winners chances can be upgraded.

Going First winners into N2L is much easier than NW1X,

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by FormalGold1

Many maiden winners entered at the n2l condition faulter on the turn. Check the turn time of the maiden winner against today's field.

Each race is different, made up of horses of varying degrees of ability. Blanket statements mean little.

[jotb]

Hello all:

With 2L races whether they are ALW2L or CLM2L you have to understand the Maiden Ranks at your circuit. Most trainers after their horse breaks their maiden is usually trying to find the next proper condition where the horse fits. You see this alot with high priced claimers in the NW2L (for example 50k). The trainer will try a high priced claiming 2L because he may not want to lose the horse and is trying to find the proper level for the horse.

MSW winners impress me when they run above par or are coming out of key races and for me they are key when they come back to win a MSW. You will see sometimes horses will win out of that MSW but many will win a Maiden Claimer so you have to be careful what you consider a key race.

The majority of the time a MSW winner will move on to the Allowance ranks as a rule of thumb. The problem with many of these horses in the Allowance ranks is that they stay in there too long especially if they continue to hit the board. You see this more with closers than you do with speed horses. A trainer will drop a horse alot easier if the horse has early lick but just can't get the job done. They will then try a NW2L claiming race so that the horse can carry it's speed further and have the energy to finish and win. The Allowance horses that constantly come from behind and pick up a check everytime is great for the owner but these types usually don't break this condition unless everything goes his way. These types are great for gimminks. The problem is the trainer may wait too long before he drops the horse in at the right level. Many will not win on the drop because their heart is no longer there.

I believe if a horse wins a Maiden Claimer for example a 10k most trainers will try that NW2L 10K but believe it or not there is a big difference in class level. Very few will win this type of race but if you drop to a 6k NW2L, I think you might have found the equilavent to the maiden 10k. Just because the horse win a maiden 10k does not necessarily mean he's worth 10k. Once again it's possible for it to happen but that 10k maiden race should be run above par or becomes a key race.

You can handicap these NW2L as long as you understand each level of class at your track. It's like fitting the pieces into the puzzle.

Best regards,
Joe

[bellsbendboy]

The inquiry here is a good one, but it is too general in nature. For instance, surface, age, distance and time of year are vital, but not included.

The highest class level for maidens is a two turn turf race at a major track. Turf horses have a higher level of class. A winner at this level will win right back about 13% of the time. Conversely, the maiden claiming winner facing winners for the first time is almost never worth a win bet. As a general rule the higher the class of the horse, the better the chance of a repeat.

As an anecdote, many years ago I was involved with a horse that we ran for maiden 10K, and he won. Two weeks later, we put him for nw2l for $7,500 and he won again. Three weeks later we ran him for nw3l for $5K and he won and there were multiple claims in for him. He never won again in about ten or so starts. It is a quantum leap to go from a field full of horses that have not won, to a field full of winners, at any level. BBB

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

The highest class level for maidens is a two turn turf race at a major track. Turf horses have a higher level of class.

Really? Funny, because in general trainers will tell you that the majority of horses turn to the turf because they are too slow to be competitive on the dirt.

I guess they must, however, dress better.