Derby Picks as of Friday Night

[WinterTriangle]

Tier 1: The only horses I like are Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, Devil May Care, Dean's Kitten.


Tier 2: (If I had to pick 4 more for exotics they would be Awesome Act, Mission Impasible, Super Saver, Sidney.)


I'll make up an exacta and tri with the top ones in the win and show positions, and the 2nd ones in the place position. Small wager.

Hoping Zito win the KY Derby though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dave Schwartz]

When I did my Kentucky Derby workshop the other night we made several interesting discoveries:

1. Over the last 8 Ky Derbies, you could have wagered $2 on every horse and shown a flat bet profit.

2. The most important negative factor was that the last race speed rating had to be within 5 points of the best in his last 10 races.
Of the 24 horses that got into the money, only 3 of them were not qualified on this factor.

Here are the horses that did not qualify:
1 Lookin At Lucky
10 Paddy O'Prado
13 Jackson Bend
16 Awesome Act
18 Backtalk

3. 5 of the last 8 winners ranked in the top 2 for "start rating."
Start rating is simply an average of the last 10 start calls in the Past Performances.

Note that this is a "positive" factor. You do not remove horses because they do not qualify. Rather, you consider these horses as plays.

Two horses qualify:
4 Super Saver
20 Sidney's Candy

4. Horses that ranked in the top 2 for 3 different ways of looking at speed ratings were highly successful:

best-2-of-last-3
best-2-of-last-4
best-3-of-last-4

The following horses qualify:
Super Saver
Dublin

5. Horses that rank in the top 2 for the HSH factor called "Composite Stretch Run," "call points at the stretch call" and "Composite Late Pace" also did very well.

The following horses qualify:
Sidney's Candy (SR, CallPts3, LatePace)
Stately Victor (SR)
Conveyance (CallPts3)
Dublin (LatePace)

6. Horses that rank in the top 3 for the HSH factor called "Hidden Fraction" won 6 of the 8 races.

The following horses qualify:
Super Saver
Dublin
Sidney's Candy

[peakpros]

jackson bend
super savor
dublin

why not?

good luck to all

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

Tier 1: The only horses I like are Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, Devil May Care, Dean's Kitten.


Tier 2: (If I had to pick 4 more for exotics they would be Awesome Act, Mission Impasible, Super Saver, Sidney.)

woops, forgot to add Noble's Promise, I like him a little too.

[W2G]

Preferred order of finish...

1. Jackson Bend
2. Backtalk
3. Ice Box
4. Dean's Kitten

[Viruss]

Exacta Boxing the fastest late pace horses

[JustRalph]

The "Wisdom of Crowds" is a little tough to define in this thread

[EQUIPACE]

Key Horses - #12 Conveyance and #4 Super Saver

$1 Trifectas - Total Bet $80

4/12
1/2/5/10/20
1/2/5/10/20

1/2/5/10/20
4/12
1/2/5/10/20

Good Luck To All!

[Rookies]

I too am going with the H2O strategy as there's lots of that today!

I like Borel's hell bent for the finish line rides and so will be taking:

#4 Super Saver & Borel to Win. SS has a W & 2nd. in 2 attempts in the slop- PLUS is 1/1 @ Churchill with a Gr 2 win last year!

Ex Box 4-3

Tris

4&3 Over:

#11 Devil May Care, 1/1 in the Slop, had a 100 Beyer @ Gulfstream + JR
# 12 Conveyance, 3/3 In the $ this year for $386k, decent (394) and ran a 5F-59 in the slop trainer @ CD
# 14 Mission Impazible, a 2nd & 3rd. in the slop, 3/3 ITM this year for $483
& in a # 17 Tossup Dublin for the 'Irish' wink

GLTA

[Joey D]

Exacta and Trifectas keying Super Saver first and second.

4/1,2,16
1,2,16/4

4/1,2,16/1,2,16
1,2,16/4/1,2,16

[JustRalph]

shit value in the exacta pool

I canceled my exacta ticks and turned them into Tri tickets

[john del riccio]

I like Sidney's Candy.


Good Luck,
John

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

shit value in the exacta pool

I canceled my exacta ticks and turned them into Tri tickets

I think we are looking at random pools for the first time in history. With the track, the two talented ones with crap posts (esp L at L with the rail which has been bad today), I think this has turned into dart throwing for a lot of people.

35-1 is the longest shot on the board? That spells pure chaos to me.

What a race!

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by DeanT

That spells pure chaos to me.

What a race!

Has little to with day-to-day handicapping. The inside looks like it sucks, but there is plenty of time between races for the maintenance crew. Roll the bones...not worth much dough (unless you win--then you should have bet more).

[Tom]

Exacta boxes

10W30S
5W15S