Who ever plays California Racing now, is a real Idiot!

[Seabiscuit@AR]

If only real idiots are left playing California due to the rise in takeout, will this make the Californian races even easier to beat? It might be easier to beat real idiots with a 30% takeout than the smarties with a 10% takeout

[Imriledup]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

If only real idiots are left playing California due to the rise in takeout, will this make the Californian races even easier to beat? It might be easier to beat real idiots with a 30% takeout than the smarties with a 10% takeout

I say no. The reason is that whales rebates will rise a few points to offset the raise in takeout, so you'd still be betting against good players who are getting a much bigger rebate. Also, the pools could theoretically rise becuase everyone getting a rebate will be getting a BIGGER rebate, thus, they will have incentive to actually bet MORE.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Yes I would say that is right

The whales getting the biggest rebates probably welcome a bigger takeout

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by Imriledup

The reason is that whales rebates will rise a few points to offset the raise in takeout.

Not a chance. If they are raising takeout, they are a cinch to raise host fees so the rebate would not offset the added takeout.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

Yes I would say that is right

The whales getting the biggest rebates probably welcome a bigger takeout

Are you serious?

So you think whales would welcome 50% takeout?

[Imriledup]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

Are you serious?

So you think whales would welcome 50% takeout?

It depends on what the betting shop is charged by the host track. If that fee doesn't rise, they could theoretically get a 35-40% rebate into a 50% takeout.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by Imriledup

It depends on what the betting shop is charged by the host track. If that fee doesn't rise, they could theoretically get a 35-40% rebate into a 50% takeout.

I understand that, but who is going to be a whale when the pools are $0?

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Originally Posted by Imriledup

It depends on what the betting shop is charged by the host track. If that fee doesn't rise, they could theoretically get a 35-40% rebate into a 50% takeout.

Whales still need bettors in the pool. The more bettors in the pool, the better someone with a handicapping advantage has. Raising the takeout kills off the average bettor.

Whales would much rather see a takeout reduction as that would bring in more bettors.

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

I understand that, but who is going to be a whale when the pools are $0?

EXACTLY

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Horseplayersbet.com

Whales still need bettors in the pool. The more bettors in the pool, the better someone with a handicapping advantage has. Raising the takeout kills off the average bettor.

Whales would much rather see a takeout reduction as that would bring in more bettors.


EXACTLY

I agree they need the average bettor as much as anyone.
If the whales are forced out of the california pools the game in that state is over as we know it now.As racing in cal. stands now i do not see the whales doing very well their with the procession of small fields with low priced favorites or long bombs aided by the polytrack.

[macdiarmida]

Originally posted by Space Monkey
Does this new takeout go into effect immediately?

No. But the track execs and Calif. politicos are stupid enough to do it, period.

Originally posted by broadreach
Lots of mug players out there not comprehending or caring about takeouts.

There's less of those than you think in terms of total money played. Raising takeout still means the lower parts of the food chain tap out and go home earlier than ever.

Somebody drag out the reports commissioned and paid for by the Calif. racetracks over the years that ALL said that reducing the handle leads to more play that would more than offset the original amount deducted for takeout. No Calif. track ever liked that answer and they ignored the studies they paid for (when takeout was left up to the individual racing associations).

[illinoisbred]

When I started to follow racing [70's], old-timers here felt no serious racing took place west of Oaklawn Park[a midwest predjudice I'm sure]. If the powers that be in California keep it up those old-timers may be proven right.

[Valuist]

I understand the synthetic mandate now. That was a way to drive bettors away so when they raised takeout, there wouldn't be a mass exodus because its already been underway for awhile.

[First_Place]

Originally Posted by BlueShoe

Many oldtimers,including myself,believe that this is the worst Oak Tree meeting ever.Aside from the plastic track matter,we have had a steep drop in quality with what seems like an abundance of bottom level maiden claimers filled with professional losers.Add to that cards filled with 6,5,and even 4 horse fields that produce a dreary procession of short prices.Now,on top of all this we get the wonderful news that the politicos are going to "fix" things by picking our pockets even more?Nothing like kicking a man when he is down is there boys.Always thought that pileing on was bad sportsmanship.

Hey, they need more tax dollars 'cause all those illegal alien interlopers are bankrupting the state.

FP

[how cliche]

I think thread titles like this aren't responsible because they're not fully informed & accusatory of the people who will perservere. They're representative of the rampant negitivism that plagues internet forums, however. The law says that California racetracks are eligible to increase their takeout by as much as 5%, but it must be approved by the CHRB first. It doesn't mean it's 100% certain to happen.

I was talking with some friends over the weekend, discussing what a 5% takeout increase would mean to me. To sum up: It means less bets, nothing more. The typical cash player is disciplined, only betting into strong opinions. When participating, the cash player draws a line in the sand for what he's willing to accept from the odds market. This happens with every bet. These odds standards are sometimes barely over that line but still acceptable. Should the takeout increase, those marginal odds plays will become too low, resulting in less bets. The end.

I'll continue to play California tracks. I've spent 10 years researching the circuit. It's where I live & play. Please read the above paragraphs and explain how that makes me an idiot.

[illinoisbred]

I agree. The "take's" already reflected in the odds. If the price is too low, I pass. Doesn't matter if the take is 10% or 15%.