Dropping after a win

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Imriledup

Very good post. I think that thoroughbred racing should announce the number of claims before the race. .

Yes, that is too bad about that.......Harness Racing already has this feature, and they announce it before the running of the race, and it is quite a valuable tool. In fact, the Trackmaster past performances provides a notated trainer change, each and every time that it occurs....

best,

[Tom]

By the time you hear a claim is in, how much time do you have to react at the track?

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Imriledup

I think that thoroughbred racing should announce the number of claims before the race. That way, if a horse is dropping from 20k to 5k and has 7 claims, you know that all the local trainers have looked that horse over and know he's ok to claim. But, a big dropper with 0 claims, well, that's a red flag. This claiming information is very valuable to knowing which droppers have holes and which ones do not.

I've campaigned hard on the air for claims to be announced before the race. But I disagree with your psychology on shakes(multiple claims deposited on the same horse). I worked as claims clerk for several years, and it was my observation that horses drawing that much attention often failed to perform. Trainers get suckered in even more easily than do players on too-good-to-be-true types. Steve Klein once did a column based on some limited research that nonetheless applies here. Klein found that longer odds animals on which just one claim was deposited made the most profitable plays. So yes, let's announce claims before the race, but understand there are differing views on how to interpret the information.

[BlueShoe]

In the past,these types would be automatic throw outs,but today it is a bit more complicated.Still dont like them,but will consider them under certain conditions.A maiden claimer winner dropping sharply,say from 12500 to a 8000 non winner of 2 lifetime is fine;they are where they belong.A runner that was claimed 3 or 4 back,won or finished in the money in its next few starts at a higher level,and now drops down may be okay.For me,the critical factor is recency and workout pattern.If the horse won 30 or more days ago,shows none or perhaps only one slow work since,and drops today,out it goes.Sure,some of these sore animals win,but prices will be short,and they are dreadful bets long term,and will try to beat them if another sharp horse is in the field.

[ralph_the_cat]

Im also a big supporter of announcing claims prior to the running... the thing is... anyone around the claim box area at most track is well aware... so why not let the public know too... at MNR, Craig Braddock once announced the claim before the race by accident when Peter let him take over... so that tells me... the info is there as fast as it should be... but the track officials dont want them to announce it... total bull IMO... they dont have to announce who claimed it... but they could atleast say "so and so" has been claimed... it would help out more than hurt... I wish someone would TRY and explain to me why with holding that info is meaningful...

[Steve 'StatMan']

I suspect if claims were announced in advance, there would be a significant rise in late scratches, since the claims are not official until the gate opens and the horse starts.

I would like to know which horses were claimed. I was noting claims manually in my own files years ago, and notices a lot of horses were winning or at least finishing in the money in the were claimed, vs. those not claimed. I have no numbers, win%, or anything to back this up, so consider it antedotal but a positive based on observations, if you care to.

So while I agree I'd like to know, the above is why I doubt we'll get that information publicly.

[ralph_the_cat]

Originally Posted by Steve 'StatMan'

I suspect if claims were announced in advance, there would be a significant rise in late scratches, since the claims are not official until the gate opens and the horse starts.

I would like to know which horses were claimed. I was noting claims manually in my own files years ago, and notices a lot of horses were winning or at least finishing in the money in the were claimed, vs. those not claimed. I have no numbers, win%, or anything to back this up, so consider it antedotal but a positive based on observations, if you care to.

So while I agree I'd like to know, the above is why I doubt we'll get that information publicly.

my point being in my first post... is that the connections know about the claim 9 times out of 10... maybe 19 times out of 20... if you (owner or trainer)want to know if your horse is claimed, you will find out... its that easy...

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

my point being in my first post... is that the connections know about the claim 9 times out of 10... maybe 19 times out of 20... if you (owner or trainer)want to know if your horse is claimed, you will find out... its that easy...

I like the fact that the harness horses mention the claims, we went to the breeders cup races Saturday at the Meadowlands and 2 races before the actual claiming race(12th race) they announced a claim was in on a horse. I also like the fact that those horses stay in a huge holding barn before the race where you cannot get in prior to the races.

[mountainman]

Some posters on this thread seem unaware that it's regulation rather than track policy that precludes the announcing of claims before the race. That rule would need revised as would the one you refer to. I've proposed that claims be considered offical when a horse sets foot on the track. At that point, there would be no purpose in conniving to have a claimed horse scratched. Trainers, of course, can come up with 1,000 other reasons why racing as we know it will cease to exist should claims be divulged upfront, but horsemen simply prefer to keep players in the dark. Besides, the claiming process isn't THAT secretive to begin with. Most trainers find out in advance when one of their horses is to be claimed.

[ralph_the_cat]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Some posters on this thread seem unaware that it's regulation rather than track policy that precludes the announcing of claims before the race. That rule would need revised as would the one you refer to. I've proposed that claims be considered offical when a horse sets foot on the track. At that point, there would be no purpose in conniving to have a claimed horse scratched. Trainers, of course, can come up with 1,000 other reasons why racing as we know it will cease to exist should claims be divulged upfront, but horsemen simply prefer to keep players in the dark. Besides, the claiming process isn't THAT secretive to begin with. Most trainers find out in advance when one of their horses is to be claimed.

Its seems pretty clear its across the board in thoroughbred racing... but what I fail to understand is that... well... that this even matters much... jurisdictions have different regulations and procedures from state to state, why this must be a "national regulation" is bizzare... when did trainers vote on this anyways... 1912?... and since when does a trainers input on regulations matter?... Id like to have a book on these national "regulations"... where can I pick it up.... walmart?... ... I wonder if theres anything in there about stewards procedures on horses showing up to the paddock at 10 minutes to post... I mean... if we dont enforce that at some tracks... then why enforce any claiming procedures at all...

[ralph_the_cat]

and as for the original topic of the thread... One guy that jumps out on drops is Contessa... dont have any numbers... but last time I bet a Contessa horse... he was dropping after a win... and I think I got maybe 2-1... and he/she won in hand...

[john del riccio]

I always try & look at these types of scenario's from the ownership perspective and it tends to shed light on the answer.

If you owned a sound 20,000 claimer that just won, why would you drop it to 10,000 off a win ? In the days of the offshore bookmakers that didnt put the money into the pools, an owner with very deep pockets could win the race, the purse would just about make up for the 10k lost in claiming price, and a sizeable wager even at odds on made for a tidy profit. Those off-shores are fewer and farther between now. So, an owner with deep pockets may still do something like this just to win a race and not care if he loses a sound horse because its turn-over that makes for the action they crave (Cole, Gill, etc.). Who knows, many times a move lik ethis will scare folks away from the claimbox and they just got away with one. Thats a nice way to setup putting the polish on a bad apple for the next one that isn't sound.

But if its an owner thats not backed those resources, this is anything but a good sign. Some trainers specialize in this type of thing as well. Robert Klesaris in NY was notorious for doing this. The bottom line is dropping in class off of a winning race has a BLINKING FOR SALE SIGN for all the world to see. That is not how the claiming game is played, they don't call it liars poker for nothing.

John

[Show Me the Wire]

Or how about for a wagering barn a sure single in the pick 6, 4, etc. I know through the condition book at the time of entry you don't have actual knowledge if the specific race entered into will be part of the pick 6, 4, etc, but it might be.

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by john del riccio

I always try & look at these types of scenario's from the ownership perspective and it tends to shed light on the answer.

If you owned a sound 20,000 claimer that just won, why would you drop it to 10,000 off a win ? In the days of the offshore bookmakers that didnt put the money into the pools, an owner with very deep pockets could win the race, the purse would just about make up for the 10k lost in claiming price, and a sizeable wager even at odds on made for a tidy profit. Those off-shores are fewer and farther between now. So, an owner with deep pockets may still do something like this just to win a race and not care if he loses a sound horse because its turn-over that makes for the action they crave (Cole, Gill, etc.). Who knows, many times a move lik ethis will scare folks away from the claimbox and they just got away with one. Thats a nice way to setup putting the polish on a bad apple for the next one that isn't sound.

But if its an owner thats not backed those resources, this is anything but a good sign. Some trainers specialize in this type of thing as well. Robert Klesaris in NY was notorious for doing this. The bottom line is dropping in class off of a winning race has a BLINKING FOR SALE SIGN for all the world to see. That is not how the claiming game is played, they don't call it liars poker for nothing.

John

I would imagine guys like Gill, Cole and Repole may use some of these drop downs as write-offs. I have looked at a bunch of races Gill has been in in the past week and only a few were drop downs. Some were actually going up the ladder albeit from a 20k claimer to a 25k isnt a huge jump but it is noteworthy. I also notice a lot of NJ breds get put into lower level claimers before the winter for obvious reasons.

[Mineshaft]

Just a couple of more reasons why trainers drop horses after wins.


1-Owner needs money

2-Owner owes trainer money and needs money to pay the trainer

3-Owner is getting out the game

4-Want to get the horse eligible for starter races

5-Trainer doesnt want to train for the owner anymore.