Somebody made a nice little score on the 8th at Kentucky Downs 9/10/20

[sammy the sage]

Winner paid $22....DD $19....yes...1st leg was even money chalk....STILL....other pay-outs on that same race seem a bit off as well...

just an observation...

[westernmassbob]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Winner paid $22....DD $19....yes...1st leg was even money chalk....STILL....other pay-outs on that same race seem a bit off as well...

just an observation...

Unless the person threw the bet in right before the gates opened the anomaly would have been advertised for all to see. I call it “ will pay handicapping “ and have done pretty well with it over the past few decades. In this case if I spotted the will pay double being that low I would have bet a few hundred on that 10-1 winner. Yes there is something to betting off the probable will pays in the double and especially pick 3. I actually caught a 2/1winner at Saratoga this summer who was 12/1 ML in a 5 horse field. The anomaly was in the pick 4 will pays. The horse was paying $200.00 less then any other horse but was the longest shot m/l. Those golden Easter eggs don’t come very often but when they do you better level up because someone knew something.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Winner paid $22....DD $19....yes...1st leg was even money chalk....STILL....other pay-outs on that same race seem a bit off as well...

just an observation...

The horse paid $22 for $2. The double paid $19.30 for $1. The double pool was $39K. The win pool was likely over $250K. The exacta in the 8th, with an even money shot second, paid $65.80 for $2, in a pool of over $312K.

Not too hard to figure out which pool was more likely to have random variation.

just an observation....

[Boomer]

The win price was also quite overlaid. Micheline has been ultra consistent in many graded stakes races ( 5 with the rest of the field in 7 total) with bulky fields while getting really bad trips. Kentucky Downs with it's one turn route racing really helps a horse like this stay out of trouble.

[Nitro]

Somebody made a nice little score on the 8th at Kentucky Downs 9/10/20

I would completely agree with that comment, but I thought the 7th race was more rewarding.
Posts#4 & #6
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160341

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Boomer

The win price was also quite overlaid. Micheline has been ultra consistent in many graded stakes races ( 5 with the rest of the field in 7 total) with bulky fields while getting really bad trips. Kentucky Downs with it's one turn route racing really helps a horse like this stay out of trouble.

I totally agree it was the win price that was an overlay.

This race was a two turn race at 10.5F.