Computer Player Invests $29k in Pick 6 - Takes Jackpot

[Zman179]

A pick six payoff of $173,912 on Sunday at Del Mar was hit by a bettor who put $29,652 into the wager, with the winning combination purchased on an $8 base play instead of the minimum $2 base play for the pick six.



https://www.drf.com/news/pick-six-pa...-single-winner

[PaceAdvantage]

That's what happens when you have $29K to put into a race...you're not a $2 bettor....shocking...

I wonder what his base ticket was on the ones he/she REALLY liked.

[JerryBoyle]

The type of breakdown they do in the article is awesome and the sort of transparency that I'd like to see. The max bet on a single combination was $60.

"All wagers were placed in batches, the last batch approximately 4 minutes before the first leg of the Pick 6,” according to the statement, first revealed on the Twitter account of the board’s spokesman, Mike Marten. “All 8,613 wagers used just one horse in each race, or using the popular wagering terminology, with six singles. However, the denominations of those wagers differed.

It's fascinating to me that whoever this is has a system which is sophisticated enough to generate 8k+ combinations yet isn't merging tickets based on common runners and equal bet sizes. 4 minutes prior to the start of the race leaves a lot of information on the table regarding the first race and possible daily double.

[Tom]

Steve Byk talking about it first hour today.

Listen to the details and then tell me you have any interest in supporting any tracks today.

Asking for a friend - are they any track that do not allow computer batch betting?

Because if there are, those are the only tracks we should support.

Let the computers battle it our among themselves.

[GMB@BP]

This CAW team bet 30k on one bet in one race......

trust me that have all the information they need. They are not waiting for the tote to give them any information in regards to a pick 6 bet.

A team like this probably has connections in every barn and has a beat on every horse in every race.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Tom

Steve Byk talking about it first hour today.

Listen to the details and then tell me you have any interest in supporting any tracks today.

Asking for a friend - are they any track that do not allow computer batch betting?

Because if there are, those are the only tracks we should support.

Let the computers battle it our among themselves.

Does batch betting make someone a better handicapper? Perhaps the solution is to open up batch betting to the masses.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

This CAW team bet 30k on one bet in one race......

trust me that have all the information they need. They are not waiting for the tote to give them any information in regards to a pick 6 bet.

A team like this probably has connections in every barn and has a beat on every horse in every race.

Why go through all THAT trouble and expense when you can just use computer algorithms to come up with last second wagers that are based on maximizing your perceived value bets across all wager types that will basically guarantee a profit after rebates are factored into the equation?

Who would NOT want to basically be a "casino" in that situation?

Who the hell needs unreliable or expensive connections to "get a beat on every horse in every race" when something like that is absolutely unnecessary for them to achieve their goals?

[metro]

Wouldn't they have gotten the whole pool anyway on a single ticket?

Also, if they played 8,613 tickets chances are the winning ticket may have been subjected to withholding opposed to playing larger tickets that would go over the 300-1 threshold for withholding based on the payout.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by metro

Wouldn't they have gotten the whole pool anyway on a single ticket?

Also, if they played 8,613 tickets chances are the winning ticket may have been subjected to withholding opposed to playing larger tickets that would go over the 300-1 threshold for withholding based on the payout.

I believe the tax implications were changed a few years ago to allow for aggregating all wagers across a given pool as the cost of the ticket.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Why go through all THAT trouble and expense when you can just use computer algorithms to come up with last second wagers that are based on maximizing your perceived value bets across all wager types that will basically guarantee a profit after rebates are factored into the equation?

Who the hell needs unreliable or expensive connections to "get a beat on every horse in every race" when something like that is absolutely unnecessary for them to achieve their goals?

Are these bettors given access to the payouts of various combos of the Pick 6? If not, how do they maximize on perceived value?

"unreliable or expensive connections" -- totally agree/waste of time/with few exceptions, you don't want to know what anyone on the backstretch thinks (Steve Crist showed this in his book from his time as an exec at NYRA).

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Are these bettors given access to the payouts of various combos of the Pick 6? If not, how do they maximize on perceived value?

"unreliable or expensive connections" -- totally agree/waste of time/with few exceptions, you don't want to know what anyone on the backstretch thinks (Steve Crist showed this in his book from his time as an exec at NYRA).

As far as I know, no one has access to individual combinations for anything more exotic than wagers w 2 legs. AmWager can provide this info for trifectas if the track provides it, but it seemed like most tracks don't provide it.

However, it's still possible to come up with something that predicts what the final payout will be for every single combination. With that, it's a simple matter to test how you would do when using your estimate of a combination's chance of winning, and your estimate of the payoff of the combination. It doesn't need to be perfect.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Does batch betting make someone a better handicapper? Perhaps the solution is to open up batch betting to the masses.

No. I have no problem with anyone having a computer program that picks winners better than I do. My complaint is that allowing batch betting destroys the game for "normal" bettors.

If there any tracks tht do not allow the CAWs to bet in batch, I will be more than happy to give them 100% of my business and say screw the rest. Not that track are out there sucking up for my bets.....

Until then, I am happy to barely bet anymore.
Why would I put money into a game that is rigged against the average player?

[metro]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

I believe the tax implications were changed a few years ago to allow for aggregating all wagers across a given pool as the cost of the ticket.

That's news to me, thought the change was going from the base amount of a ticket (x 300) to the actual cost (x 300). Didn't hear anything about aggregate cost of all wagers.

I'll have to look back at my one "signer" this year.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Tom

No. I have no problem with anyone having a computer program that picks winners better than I do. My complaint is that allowing batch betting destroys the game for "normal" bettors.

If there any tracks tht do not allow the CAWs to bet in batch, I will be more than happy to give them 100% of my business and say screw the rest. Not that track are out there sucking up for my bets.....

Until then, I am happy to barely bet anymore.
Why would I put money into a game that is rigged against the average player?

Is there a science to batch betting or is it just the ability to bet at the last second? How much of an advantage in a P-6 pool can a bettor derive by betting at the last second versus betting with 2 minutes to post?

[metro]

Originally Posted by Tom

No. I have no problem with anyone having a computer program that picks winners better than I do. My complaint is that allowing batch betting destroys the game for "normal" bettors.

If there any tracks tht do not allow the CAWs to bet in batch, I will be more than happy to give them 100% of my business and say screw the rest. Not that track are out there sucking up for my bets.....

Until then, I am happy to barely bet anymore.
Why would I put money into a game that is rigged against the average player?

The computer programs aren't focused on picking winners, they are focused on finding value in the pools. In theory once they have "leveled" the pools, or payouts, they stop betting certain combinations. It's also why they bet at the very last second.

I really don't have a problem with the batch players, it's the rebates they are afforded which hurts the average player. Those rebates could instead be directed at reducing takeout which helps everyone that wagers.

iirc Oaklawn one of the few major tracks that doesn't give the batch guys access to their pools or accept batch wagering.