Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt
I would appreciate people sharing their logic behind their picks if that isn't too much to ask.
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I haven't posted these picks here because my ego got in the way
I wanted to post my own picks - thinking I could be a winner with my own handicapping
I no longer think that
if you check out the link - you will see that the gambling expert who calls himself the Wizard of Odds tracked over 2,000 bets and found that the away underdog had a positive r.o.i. of 2.57%
I tweaked that believing that the low spread road dogs would do better and I tracked over 300 bets and found that road dogs who got 4 points or fewer won about 57.6% of their bets with about a 10% r.o.i.
for this season road dogs who got 4 points or fewer are currently 14-11
I ignore pushes - can't remember if there were any
it makes perfect sense that the public overvalues the home team
I have posted these picks on a different site and will now post some of them here - no more handicapping for me
my own idea - using the 2nd link and covers.com - I have tracked the consensus public pick of 65% or greater and so far this season these picks are 20-7.
unfortunately it is very time consuming to get data from this from prior years and I wasn't willing to spend a ton of time reasearching so I can't be 100% sure it provides an edge and that this season's results are not purely from chance
but I would speculate that there is an edge to be had with these picks - but nowhere near as great as what the current results indicate
the 65% or greater pick is just about always a fave and often a big fave
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus
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