easiest top 6 i've ever had before KD draw

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

This is true, as it is with many Derby winners over the years since they generally stick to the same circuit. I believe Pharoah only beat one piece of junk starter in the Ark Derby. Big Brown beat who in Florida? Country House and Rich strike were NW1x. I believe Animal Kingdom only beat one bomber in the gate. Giacomo couldn't even win a prep. And on and on.

I feel 100% safe that Kingbarns won't break and be near the lead. I feel 100% safe he'll finish 12th or worse.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I was a bit surprised by the comments about Tapit Thrice posted on the Thoroughbred Daily News’:

I don’t recall what the track conditions were like in each of the last 9 Derbies, and I’m not someone who puts a lot of credence on limited statistical information, but in this case that information standing on its own merits some consideration.

early up close position is key. there isn't much speed in this derby and there's some questions as to who the first flight horses will be as well. seems like a decent position will be available to any horse that can get there if they want it. anytime most of the figure horses are closers things could get dicey.

I actually think tt might be up closer in the derby. he showed some giddy up last race and then pulled to the outside and went wide for a long time. an inside post is a bad place for this horse.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I feel 100% safe that Kingbarns won't break and be near the lead. I feel 100% safe he'll finish 12th or worse.

100% my ass. anytime you can wire a g1 route. and draw off to win you can be in the top flight of horses at the first pole in the kd.

if he doesn't he will likely be a non factor. you can't be on even keel with the top grinders/closers mid pack. but it does seem like neither kb or derma has to be on the lead but because of racing style of most of the kd field it will be to their benefit to be at the very least up close. I really think verifying is going to motor early as well.

there just isn't many other viable options when positioning the field early in the race.

sure, there could be pp trouble or not taking to the track but that's out of the horses hands. there has to be an up close lead group. that group isn't usually fully comprised with horses that are head scratchers doing it for the first time


where these end up at the race end is a different story. but to not show some early foot would be surprising.

[Curln22]

KB has definitely been showing progress in his pattern.
Each race is faster than his last. Which is more than can be said about the favorite.
Even though the LA derby was run like a turf route his last F was in 12.1 and the final 3F he came home in 36.5 the fastest of all the Derby entries.

GL and great conversation.
John

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Curln22

KB has definitely been showing progress in his pattern.
Each race is faster than his last. Which is more than can be said about the favorite.
Even though the LA derby was run like a turf route his last F was in 12.1 and the final 3F he came home in 36.5 the fastest of all the Derby entries.

GL and great conversation.
John

i doubt he'll win but he doesn't get much respect from jox or the cappers. people just shrug their shoulders, label him and look for something else.

imo this race is all about tt and forte. these horses just wear you down and win while wanting even more ground. tt doesn't even know how to race yet. i don't think they even know how he wants to run. would not be surprised to see early foot again and have him up closer.

as much as i like veryfying, the added distance might make it even harder for him. but his stretch due vs tt was great. i love watching him there. there's a good chance he'll never be worse than 3rd the entire kd. and if tt or forte run into any trouble or a soft pace ensues veryfying could even win.

[Curln22]

I agree T. Trice is still figuring it out.
Quite possibly the most upside potential of all the Derby horses.

Any concern about Forte not progressing #s wise?

Verifying, I felt he needed the race and kinda ran like it.

Regarding KB I watched his replays, first race he looked very mentally mature. Sat behind horses and went when he was told.
Tampa Bay race sat chilly went when he was told.
Louisiana Derby took the lead and pulled away.

North of 12-1 Shrug away. But honestly if he breaks and gets the lead are you concerned with a 46.3 half?

Add AOE, P.M and T.Phil’s I feel the winner comes from this group.

GL

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Curln22

I agree T. Trice is still figuring it out.
Quite possibly the most upside potential of all the Derby horses.

Any concern about Forte not progressing #s wise?

Verifying, I felt he needed the race and kinda ran like it.

Regarding KB I watched his replays, first race he looked very mentally mature. Sat behind horses and went when he was told.
Tampa Bay race sat chilly went when he was told.
Louisiana Derby took the lead and pulled away.

North of 12-1 Shrug away. But honestly if he breaks and gets the lead are you concerned with a 46.3 half?

Add AOE, P.M and T.Phil’s I feel the winner comes from this group.

GL

i think some people would like to see an amazing effort time and figure wise rather than the workman like winning efforts forte gives. seems like you have to go way off the beaten track to find fault. has there ever been a horse forte and tt never passed? and has there ever been a horse that finished better than either of them? (plz don't site those sprint races)

add distance to both he fd and bg and how much more do each win by?

as for kb..."i don't know" can sum up a lot of what to expect from him.

.how much can you really legitimately knock him other than the time of his races and jox bailing on him. 3/3 winning on 3 diff tracks. the horse left quickly and easily in the ld.

as for figures...ehhhh. a race goes slow they're coming back slower. could he be slow? yes, but he also could be a victim of circumstance. just because he hasn't gone at fast doesn't mean he can't. there can be upside with him just as well as downside.

it's easy to follow some of the dominos and discount him but right now there's also the "potential" angle. funny how people will use this as a angle playing 20-1 open length maiden/ allow winners races in there first GS's but will overlook it here...maybe they won't overlook it and you'll get a poor price?

people will make tough decisions tossing horses and some will toss this one because they think he's to slow. i won't say they're wrong in saying that.

the horse has work to do and will have to show more than he has. i just like him underneath some because he should be in decent position and trip out. i just shouldn't go overboard by "good possible positioning" because there are red flags.

pratt thinks otherwise. that doesn't mean he's right but i respect pratt more than any joc. so maybe i should re-examine things, or at the very least toss in angel to some degree.

the horse i haven't gotten into is mage. this horse ran a very strong and visually impressive race to forte. it looks like somebody pushed the turbo button on him and he came up a lil short in the stretch in the fd. this also happened to him in another race where he didn't break well. he's yet another with a light foundation.

that was really a great race that people haven't discussed like they should. this horse looped the field and forte i'm sure he'll get his kudos and followers soon enough

[lamboguy]

even though i think one of these Japanese horses is probably going to win the race, i am leaning to not 1 Phil but TWO PHILS, just for personal reasons. i will wait to see how they train over the Churchill surface. asking for any horse to transfer from a synthetic race over to old-fashioned dirt can lend to problems. the plus side to that equation is that Rivelli is good at it. there are so many good horses this year that are all fairly close to each other and the unknown horses coming from other continents that TWO PHILS could be a $20 horse or close to it. so far the Keeneland meet have had plenty of horses run good coming from Turfway.

[f2tornado]

I do like looking for horses with improving figures. Skinner and Tapit fit that bill on just about any figure marker chart and will likely be included in my gimmicks.

[Michael]

Is there a reason we don't have pp's for the derby yet?

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by Curln22

I agree T. Trice is still figuring it out.
Quite possibly the most upside potential of all the Derby horses.
GL

That would be Mage.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Michael

Is there a reason we don't have pp's for the derby yet?

BRIS has advanced pp's available

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

BRIS has advanced pp's available

So does DRF right now

[Curln22]

Mage hype:
Reminds me of that maiden at Gulfstream who freaked in the slop the whole racing world went bonkers.
Never progressed.

[Michael]

Thanks fellas Had no clue they were up. (I like skinner as value too if he makes it in the gate - off the top of my head I think I put my value line at 15/1 for him and he's sitting at 30/1 across the pond atm) I'm def not betting him to win... but he's not too far down the number line for exotics.

Otherwise, I took a closer look at the UAE Derby. These are the fractions that I came up with off of a youtube video. (I took the liberty... and backed into a run-up time - based off of the shown clock out of the gate)

UAE Derby -
23.78 / 46.88 / 1:11.28 / 1:35.98 / 1:54.19

The race really looks like one of those rock-your-world merry go round type races. In the footers off the racingpost... there's a note that the race was on par 1 second fast. Fairly sure Dermasoto Gake figures well regardless... The real question is Continuar who broke from the outside and sat off the rail. He's currently 50/1 + overseas.

My lunch time to do list is to buy new ink for the printer. The game is afoot!