My take on the Belmont

[melman]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

real good job handicapping a very tough race

Lambo you and I must have a vast difference in what a real good job of handicapping is. Come on man the fav's finished 1-2 and PA had the winner with fair odds of 9-1. The wins at 5-2 so in his view it was a HUGE underlay. Not exactly the way to make money in betting horses. This is not a knock on PA overall as" he has made good calls in the past. But a great job??? Yes he said UR was "poised to run the best race of his life" and yet he still picked him 3rd with fair odds of 9-1. Craig Donnelly in the Philly Inquirer was much close to "real good job" he picked UR with odds line of 2-1 Pay with 9-5 and My Adonis with odds of 23-1. Adonis his 4th choice behind Dullahan. Even that was nothing special.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by melman

Lambo you and I must have a vast difference in what a real good job of handicapping is. Come on man the fav's finished 1-2 and PA had the winner with fair odds of 9-1. The wins at 5-2 so in his view it was a HUGE underlay. Not exactly the way ta great jo make money in betting horses. This is not a knock on PA overall as" he has made good calls in the past. But a great job??? Yes he said UR was "poised to run the best race of his life" and yet he still picked him 3rd with fair odds of 9-1. Craig Donnelly in the Philly Inquirer was much close to "real good job" he picked UR with odds line of 2-1 Pay with 9-5 and My Adonis with odds of 23-1. Adonis his 4th choice behind Dullahan. Even that was nothing special.

in my world there is nothing wrong with a $30 exacta and a nice place price that he got.

he stuck his neck out and did a great job.

[melman]

Stuck his neck out??? Ya GOT to be kidding me. PA runs a horse racing site, which should mean once in a while he is going to make picks. Geez. Great job to have a $30 plus ex if you box the top three?? And a place price on the betting fav?? Man you really have low standards Lambo.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by melman

Stuck his neck out??? Ya GOT to be kidding me. PA runs a horse racing site, which should mean once in a while he is going to make picks. Geez. Great job to have a $30 plus ex if you box the top three?? And a place price on the betting fav?? Man you really have low standards Lambo.

my standards are very simple in this game, its called take down the money.

you are not going to hit homeruns every day of the week. he took what was given to him and did the best he could. you must thing it's better to bet some 20-1 shot in that race and lose your money and never had a chance.

personally, i am shocked that Paynter ran as good as he did. he picked the horse because it was some type of a win factor that had the biggest price.

in that race you weren't going to get a winner out of anything but Dullahan, Union Rags, or Paynter. he correctly identified those horses. what more do you want him to do?

he deserves praise on that basis.

[FantasticDan]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

in that race you weren't going to get a winner out of anything but Dullahan, Union Rags, or Paynter. he correctly identified those horses.

And so did everyone else on the planet, considering those three were the prohibitive favorites. I think every analyst in the country called it a 3-horse race.

[melman]

Lambo let's ask PA himself if he indeed "took down money". In his take on the Belmont he listed Pay has an overlay, the value of the race. He lost. Yes he ran good and yes he lost to a perfect trip horse but he lost. And to a horse that while PA had good things to say about he still said that his fair odds where 9-1. Which would make UR a SEVERE underlay. While underlaid horses win races everyday it's NOT a good idea if to many of them beat you. ALL of the good bettor's I know if they had a horse they called a fair odds horse at 9-1 and saw him going off at 5-2 would not be using him in an exacta. And what's with this nonsence about I must think it's better to bet a 20-1 shot just because it's 20-1. He called his value horse and it LOST. That is hardly taking down the money or very good handicapping. Need I say AGAIN this is NOT an attack on PA? His Belmont call was very average at best. Just about everyone had those three horses. Geez now the guy who posted this year's KD winner a week in advance, now that's very good to great handicapping.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by melman

Lambo let's ask PA himself if he indeed "took down money". In his take on the Belmont he listed Pay has an overlay, the value of the race. He lost. Yes he ran good and yes he lost to a perfect trip horse but he lost. And to a horse that while PA had good things to say about he still said that his fair odds where 9-1. Which would make UR a SEVERE underlay. While underlaid horses win races everyday it's NOT a good idea if to many of them beat you. ALL of the good bettor's I know if they had a horse they called a fair odds horse at 9-1 and saw him going off at 5-2 would not be using him in an exacta. And what's with this nonsence about I must think it's better to bet a 20-1 shot just because it's 20-1. He called his value horse and it LOST. That is hardly taking down the money or very good handicapping. Need I say AGAIN this is NOT an attack on PA? His Belmont call was very average at best. Just about everyone had those three horses. Geez now the guy who posted this year's KD winner a week in advance, now that's very good to great handicapping.

mel, let me explain something to you, PA is not a professional horse player. he makes his selections with pace numbers and computer programs. the guy knew absolutely nothing about how those horses were training, eating, or feeling. he took his tools and made a great guess. he knew enough to narrow the field and in this instance he deserves the credit for making good selections. when someone can do this well i salute them, no matter what the price of the horses were. another guy went 5/11 on this board for the whole program. i think that's great too. if you look back at this thread you will find that i agree'd with his picks, i rated his chances as 95% to have picked the winner out of the 4 horses he put up, and a 75% chance of hitting the exacta. he did both. my problem was that i didn't play anything in the race!

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

mel, let me explain something to you,

If you praise somebody that is your freedom of speech and opinion. And frankly I think PA did do a good job calling of callng it. (so did I - here .. but I was too arrogant to think UR would win so in my bets I did not place him in the 1st spot anywhere.. and also, I did not bet much so I did not have Atigun at 3rd place in my .10 supers..sux huh? = i dont box these things so it serves me right now to be penny wise). I ended the day ~10 less by the way.

But, the more fundamental reason i am writing here is to say that PA's call was good and your supporting words are fine- u never used the word "great job" anyway so I don't understand why melman, f'cdan are getting their panties in bunch over your words. No one asked them to join a kumbaya singing praises.. geez.... get a life guys and realize you cannot force your opinion on others.

[melman]

Let's put it this way Lambo. Somebody not named PA posts selections. He hits a $35 exacta on a three horse box. His top selection does not win. Someone, anyone comes after that selection and says to him "that's very good handicapping". The next twenty posts would be people laughing at that idea. Let's put it another way next Sat feature race at Belmont. I pick the top three betting choices. One of them I pick on top to win. My pick loses but I hit the exacta. Do you really think anyone is going to post "very good job of handicapping Mel". If they did I would tell them just what I'm saying now. That's average handicapping at best.

[melman]

I'll be interested in PA's comment on this. Unless I really underestimate the guy he will tell you this was hardly more than average handicapping. No serious or semi serious player is going to put a 9-1 fair odds horse on top when he sees the horse going off at 5-2. If anything you would use the other picks as "unders" in the ex and tri. It's not a matter of being arrogant it's making the correct bet.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know what everyone is bitching about.

Paynter WAS the value play in the race. Period, end of story. And he lost...I lost...that's it...