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10-09-2009, 12:08 AM
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#16
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devo-lutionizing
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: its a beautiful world
Posts: 14,134
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ill give you guys a two week head start then ill join in.
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10-09-2009, 12:47 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juanepstein
ill give you guys a two week head start then ill join in.
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..We're off to a fast start..
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10-09-2009, 03:20 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,077
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Belmont
Friday, Oct. 9th
1).. - -
2).. - -
3).. - -
4).. - -
5).. - -
6).. - -
7).. - -
8).. - -
9).. - -
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10-09-2009, 06:59 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,171
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It would be interesting to see what a dart board could do against trained handicappers. That would show how much luck is in the numbers being produced.
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10-09-2009, 10:13 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Brisnet Prime Power top selection:
Wed. 10/7: Winners: R1 Winthrop House $3.60; R3 R. Betty Graybill $3.50; R5 Ms. Thanksgiving $5.70; R8 Stevic $3.30
Thurs. 10/8: Winners: R4 Zapster $3.60; R5 O' So Pretty $4.80; R6 Australia's Princess $18.00
Two Day Total: 18 races; Investment $36; Win return $42.40; Win %: 38.88%; ROI +17.77%
Note: The Brisnet PP number has a disadvantage in that it is unable to ever select a first time starter since it has no numbers to go by on such horses.
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10-09-2009, 11:28 AM
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#21
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,612
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10-09-2009, 12:01 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Question of format: In posting an entry as a top pick, there is a problem with listing both horses as the selection. In the event that the preferred part of the entry is scratched, this saddles the selector with the other half of the entry who may be far inferior and would not be the selector's pick. In such case, he should be allowed to consider his next selection as his top pick for the race. Therefore, the selector should note the top selection only and indicate in parenthesis that the horse is a POE (part of entry). If the other part of the entry is actually the selector's second choice, the horse should be listed separately as the second selection. For example, (POE) - (POE) - 3 - 7, etc.
We understand that if someone were to bet the entry and the weaker half wins, you still cash the ticket. However, this is a contest of handicapping prowess. Therefore, fairness dictates that the selector not be penalized for a scratch of his favored entry half, nor should he be rewarded when a non-favored entry half somehow wins. This, of course, is predicated on the format that TLG is using. If he is simply listing the entry as his selection, then Chris will have to do the same. However, most public handicappers know that their followers need to understand which half of the entry is their actual selection.
Last edited by markgoldie; 10-09-2009 at 12:09 PM.
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10-09-2009, 12:52 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
It would be interesting to see what a dart board could do against trained handicappers. That would show how much luck is in the numbers being produced.
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In the interest of creating a control group, I'll select the horse in every race today. The selection was done without any review of the race cards or anyone else's selections.
My comments are not meant to cast aspersions on the abilities of the two contestants. They know more than me. It is meant to show what score would be if you picked the same number horse in each race. It may show interesting results.
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10-09-2009, 11:02 PM
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#24
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,612
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Day 3 Results:
TLG | 1 for 9 | $6.30 | -$11.70
1) Second
2) Sixth
3) Fifth
4) First $6.30
5) Second by a neck at 28-1
6) Fourth
7) Second
8) Second
9) Eighth
TLG Totals | 4 for 27 | 15% | $54 Bet | $28 Return | -$26 Profit | -48% ROI
--------------------------------------
CMOORE | 2 for 9 | $14.20 | -$3.80
1) Third
2) Eleventh
3) First $3.60
4) Second
5) Third
6) First $10.60 -- Cold $65.50 exacta
7) Tenth
8) Fifth
9) Ninth
CMOORE Totals | 3 for 27 | 11% | $54 Bet | $17.50 Return | -$36.50 Profit | -68% ROI
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10-09-2009, 11:06 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 6,128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
In the interest of creating a control group, I'll select the horse in every race today. The selection was done without any review of the race cards or anyone else's selections.
My comments are not meant to cast aspersions on the abilities of the two contestants. They know more than me. It is meant to show what score would be if you picked the same number horse in each race. It may show interesting results.
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It would be more interesting to compare against the public favorite. Random selections have a low hit rate and horrible ROI...what's interesting about that?
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10-10-2009, 04:07 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 8,077
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Belmont
Saturday, Oct. 10th
1).. - -
2).. - -
3).. - -
4).. - -
5).. - -
6).. - -
7).. - -
8).. - -
9).. - -
10).. - -
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10-10-2009, 05:22 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GameTheory
It would be more interesting to compare against the public favorite. Random selections have a low hit rate and horrible ROI...what's interesting about that?
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There's nothing interesting or useful about random picks except to remove any background noise/luck from the selection process. If a handicapper can attain a 7% ROI, and random picks has a -10% ROI, then that handicapper has a skill level 17% above the background noise. The point is that anyone can pick random numbers (the suckers at the track essentially pick at random), but how much better is the solid handicapper against that number.
I realize the point of this thread is to compare the skills of two particular bettors. I just thought it would be useful to see how much better they were against the once a year bettor who picks his horse because his wife likes the color red. That's all.
Your suggestion is a good one as well.
Last edited by tucker6; 10-10-2009 at 05:23 AM.
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10-10-2009, 10:52 AM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Brisnet Prime Power
Results for Friday, October 9:
Winners: R3 Bubbly Jane $3.60; R4 Paniolo $6.40; R7 Roaring Belle $7.00; R9 Frenchonionsoup $5.50. Wagered for day: $18; Return $22.50; Profit $4.50; ROI +25%.
Three day running totals: 27 races; Investment: $54; Return $64.90; Profit $10.90; ROI +20.18%; Win% 11 of 27 for 40.74%
ROI comparison:
Brisnet Prime Power: +20%
TLG: -48%
Cmoore: -68%
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10-10-2009, 11:27 AM
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#29
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,612
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I appreciate the feedback everyone, but I would also appreciate it if this thread could stay relatively uncluttered...so, if you'd like to start your own little tracking thread for BRIS Prime Power picks or whatever, please do...
I'd like for this thread to focus exclusively on TLG vs. Cmoore, just like the title says...
Thanks.
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