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Old 03-13-2018, 10:00 PM   #16
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The real takeaway of this, regardless of outcome at this point, is the GOP is gonna get trounced in the midterms.
At least this is a prediction I can hold you to.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:01 PM   #17
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The real takeaway of this, regardless of outcome at this point, is the GOP is gonna get trounced in the midterms.
I think there is still time. The economy could float enough Republicans that they retain control of the House.

There is no doubt that Democrats have outperformed in every special election since Trump won. Thatís not a good sign.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:01 PM   #18
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I have always enjoyed the nuts and bolts of election campaigns. Not sure where the obsession comes from, but Iíve always been into it.
What I think will be really interesting is seeing how this shapes up for the fall and the results afterward.

Who is Trump going to invest considerable effort into like this race? Where isn't he going to? Which GOP candidates won't want him to?

And then how those groups perform in November.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:09 PM   #19
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What I think will be really interesting is seeing how this shapes up for the fall and the results afterward.

Who is Trump going to invest considerable effort into like this race? Where isn't he going to? Which GOP candidates won't want him to?

And then how those groups perform in November.
Heíll spend his time in the Industrial Midwest and South where he can do some good. There will be a lot of Republicans in the West that will want his endorsement before the primary and then distance themselves after.

For the most part, this is Trumpís Party now. Iím not sure there is a reasonable path to Republican victory without him.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:16 PM   #20
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There is no doubt that Democrats have outperformed in every special election since Trump won. Thatís not a good sign.
Didn't they lose every one of the first four or five? I remember they kept losing and losing...how many have they won that they weren't supposed to?

One? Two? More?
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:18 PM   #21
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Right now the difference in votes is less than that received by the Libertarian candidate.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:25 PM   #22
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Didn't they lose every one of the first four or five? I remember they kept losing and losing...how many have they won that they weren't supposed to?

One? Two? More?
Itís not just winning or losing. This district today is an example. Itís probably redder than Alabama was in the Moore election. Lamb may very well lose but putting in play a district this red tells you that the variance from the normal partisan lean is fairly extreme.

Democrats havenít even bothered running a candidate here since 2012.

If a Republican lost a tight race in San Francisco, that would be bad news for Democrats. The Democratic losses you reference were all out performances of the expected partisan lean of their districts.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:27 PM   #23
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215,000 plus votes counted. 98% of precincts reporting. Lamb ahead by less than 600 votes.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:35 PM   #24
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215,000 plus votes counted. 98% of precincts reporting. Lamb ahead by less than 600 votes.
The Dems have always got some "lost" ballots somewhere, waiting to be discovered if needed. I trust they were smart enough to hire Rahm Emanuel or one of his Chicago guys as a consultant.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:46 PM   #25
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For the most part, this is Trumpís Party now. Iím not sure there is a reasonable path to Republican victory without him.
I not sure there is a Republican path to victory regardless of him at this point.

What I think will be interesting is how the groups in the questions i asked perform relative to their PPs.

It will be an interesting glimpse into how the GOP will shift it's platform going forward.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:46 PM   #26
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The Dems have always got some "lost" ballots somewhere, waiting to be discovered if needed. I trust they were smart enough to hire Rahm Emanuel or one of his Chicago guys as a consultant.
The oddity in precinct level results being unavailable was in the heaviest Republican County in the district. Right now I can see that 99% of those precincts have reported but I have no idea which is the 1% that hasnít.

Washington County has 7% unreported and those remaining should slightly favor Saccone. Another 1% is in Allegheny and those will break to Lamb. The counties arenít the same population. Washington has about 1/2 the population of Allegheny with Westmoreland in between the other two in population.

It would probably be too tight to call in any circumstance but not knowing where the Westmoreland votes are pending makes it impossible.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:51 PM   #27
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All of Allegheny is in with Lamb having a 755 vote lead. If I had to guess, the remaining districts in Washington County wonít give Saccone a lead. Itís definitely broken more blue than in the past and he might actually pick up some votes there.

Wish I knew what was going on in Westmoreland.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:56 PM   #28
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2 precincts left in Westmoreland. Lamb ahead by 95 votes.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:56 PM   #29
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Last I saw, they still have to count the absentee ballots. No indication of how many of those there are, but looks like nothing is final until then.
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:02 PM   #30
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Last I saw, they still have to count the absentee ballots. No indication of how many of those there are, but looks like nothing is final until then.
Good point. Absentee ballots received by Election Day are already counted. Iím not sure how long Pennsylvania allows for ballots afterwards, if any period.
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