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Old 05-20-2018, 10:43 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
If you believe that fig is accurate. I find it questionable.
I absolutely trust CJ to make pace figures. He already said the entire day was very consistent.
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Old 05-20-2018, 10:54 AM   #107
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If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.

If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.
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Old 05-20-2018, 10:55 AM   #108
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Only 4 horses lined up to face him so far.

Bravazo, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Free Drop Billy.

If that's the field, he isn't losing unless he falls down.
This is early possibles.... I can't imagine only 4 lining up to face Justify.

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Old 05-20-2018, 11:26 AM   #109
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Have you ever seen the size of Smarty Jones? He was a smaller horse, Justify is huge.......Smarty was all heart, Justify is phenomenal specimen. If he's healthy & is galloping nicely, he has a great chance to win the triple crown.
Very true. My sentiments mirror yours sir. Is he up against it, YES!! Any horse with such a phenomenal opportunity finding himself in the same spot in a similar circumstance is, however, it would be Awesome to see him get it done in another three weeks... GO JUSTIFY!!
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Old 05-20-2018, 11:36 AM   #110
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I didn't get to play this weekend because my father passed away. Way too many important family issues to deal with to worry about betting a horse race. I did get to watch it though. Good race.

I did post somewhere last week that I thought it was a race between Justify and Good Magic with Bravazo as the only horse with a chance to pull the upset. So I don't get any money this week, but I'm happy my handicapping was spot on and I needed a little happy right now.
Very sorry to hear of the recent loss of your father. Your family is in my prayers depalma113. Nothing but excellent karma and good tidings to you and your family moving forward sir.
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Old 05-20-2018, 12:45 PM   #111
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In a span of 43 days, Calumet’s Whirlaway raced in the Bluegrass, Derby Trial, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, an Allowance race and the Belmont Stakes. In between the Bluegrass and the Derby Trial, he worked 10 fl in 2:07.2.5! Back then, the Preakness ran one week later. Today’s horse would lose by default because they couldn’t keep up w/the schedule. Horse ran 16 times as a two-year-old.

Different time, different type . . .
I disagree. The reason trainers don't do this anymore is because big money owners don't want losses on the record. Nothing has changed about the horses. They could take a tougher schedule.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:10 PM   #112
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If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.

If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.
I agree.Lets see how Baffert prepares him before making any judgements.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:26 PM   #113
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Wonder what happened to Runaway Ghost and his injury (shin hairline fracture). I would like to see him run against Justify and Bravazo. The Awesome Again - Ghostzapper horses. But doesn't seem like the kind of race to run right after an injury at all. Maybe some day. But after this I assume Justify will be out to stud and maybe surpassing Ghostzapper's sire fee record While the syndicate looks for their next K derby contender.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:06 PM   #114
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I agree.Lets see how Baffert prepares him before making any judgements.
If something goes amiss, the pressure on Baffert to run him will be enormous, and it'll be tough to overcome the Triple Crown fever. Since there are no longer any huge bonuses for winning the TC, one can hope that it will allow the horsemen to be a bit more sensible and do what's best for their horse.

We've seen many get caught up in Derby fever, and the result is there are way too horses running each year over their heads - and often to the detriment of their career. For a horse to be sound enough to make a start in all three Triple Crown races makes a case for their soundness, which again can be an enticement to run when the horse is indicating a Belmont may not be best for them.

As for who to toss, I'll be leaning to toss Bravazo, especially if the track is fast. I'm not a big fan of Lukas to begin with, and lost a lot of respect for him when he ran Winning Colors in the Belmont, with nothing to prove, no bonus on the line, and very minimal breeding concerns since she was a filly. Fortunately, she was able to bounce back and run big in the Breeders Cup, but that may have been in spite of him. "The Coach" admits he likes the big stage, and now we have a rare circumstance where a horse running over his head turns out to be competitive - putting the quality of the crop as being suspect rather than "way better than average", the opinion held by many going into the Derby.

Justify may offer no value in the Belmont, and he may have been tired and near the end of his form cycle - or not. Like Thask, I'll wait to see how the field shapes up, but there's no denying Justify's running style and his accomplishments so far make it tougher to see an upset.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:10 PM   #115
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The bonus isn't the reason people run injured horses for the TC. Majestic Prince ran injured with no bonus.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:15 PM   #116
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Justify is not going to have to work early on in the Belmont as he did today.

Of course Bravaso and others looked great closing but that’s only because they had Good Magic to soften Justify up. I don’t think there is anyone else in this crop who can push him that hard that long. I don’t think Good Magic will run in the Belmont, this poses a problem if you’re trying to beat Justify.

The way the Belmont is run these days is slow to start and even slower to finish. The guts that Justify showed today tells me betting against him could be a mistake. Those conditions today where awful, and it’s the second time in 14 days he’s dealt with it and he hasn’t blinked yet.
They're not awful conditions for a horse who likes it, which Justify clearly does.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:18 PM   #117
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I absolutely trust CJ to make pace figures. He already said the entire day was very consistent.
And totally out of line with Beyer. We'll see what TG and Ragozin do, but I'll bet they back up Beyer.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:19 PM   #118
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I disagree. The reason trainers don't do this anymore is because big money owners don't want losses on the record. Nothing has changed about the horses. They could take a tougher schedule.
That's not true. Horses have a harder time staying together now.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:22 PM   #119
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And totally out of line with Beyer. We'll see what TG and Ragozin do, but I'll bet they back up Beyer.
I have made my feelings about the Beyer figures in recent years, especially at the top end of races, I think they are often too low for the Graded horses.

I trust the figures CJ has made for well over a decade.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:28 PM   #120
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If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.

If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.
Robert,

Spot on post!!!!
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