The Preakness

[Teach]

2018 Preakness Analysis: Post-Position Order.

Please note that it’s been raining in Baltimore over the last few days. The forecast is for the rains to slacken up this afternoon. Still, I’m handicapping for wet-track conditions.

QUIP. “The Sleeper”. Every time I see a horse with Mr. Prospector pedigree, i.e., Distorted Humor, my ears perk up (that would be some trick) and my pupils dilate. The reason I’m calling this guy -- “The Sleeper” -- is because the wet-track pedigree exists. Yet, this colt has never raced on a wet track. This bay’s only poor race came at Churchill at the end of last year. That one was in a large field; he had excuses. He is stretching out ever so slightly here; yet it appears that he can “get the distance”. The most capable Argentan, France native, Florent Geroux, is in the irons for trainer Rodolphe Brisset.

LONE SAILOR finished 8th in the large-field “Derby”. Yet, he did get off slowly and was “stymied” (DRF). This colt was gaining ground in the stretch. How will he fare in a shorter-field race? I believe it moves him up. That doesn’t necessarily mean – as Marlon Brando would say in “On The Waterfront” – that he’s “a contendah.” Yet, if there are swift early fractions, this guy could mount a late charge. He does have A.P. Indy and Mr. Greeley (Gone West) wet-track pedigree. He broke his maiden at 7 panels at “The Spa” in a race taken off the turf; he won by 11 lengths. One of NYRA’s “finest,” Irad Ortiz, Jr., has his feet in the stirrups for trainer Tom Amoss.

SPORTING CHANCE must feel like the late Rodney Dangerfield: “I Don’t Get Respect”. This colt has been installed at 30-1 M/L odds. I have to feel he should be regarded at better than that. This guy mounted a nice close – despite being checked – in “The Derby”. This colt has raced three times on a wet surface; he won “The Hopeful” at Saratoga. He finished 3rd in the Grade III “Southwest” at Oaklawn and he was, most recently, 4th in “The Derby”. Yet, he may get “tested” for the distance. He could be a “pick up the pieces” type. It’s certainly not out of the question. Luis Contreras reprises the ride for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

DIAMOND KING. Here’s a horse who will be tested for both class (only one graded stakes, the Grade III Swale at Gulfstream; he finished 3rd) and also the Preakness’s one mile and 3/16ths distance. In his favor, he does have wet-track pedigree on both “the top” and “the bottom”. Javier Castellano has the call for trainer John Servis.

GOOD MAGIC was 2nd in “The Derby” at odds of nearly 10-1. I seriously doubt you’ll get anything approaching those odds, today. I figure he’ll go off as the second choice on the tote. This guy’s sire, Curlin, was “a monster” on wet tracks. That fact must be respected, as well as this colt’s chances of possibly “upsetting the applecart”. If you’re going to hedge, this colt’s most useable in part-wheels. Jose Ortiz is back in the irons; the colt’s conditioner, “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown.

TENFOLD is another colt who could be tested for class and distance. In his only stakes effort, he finished a faltering 5th in the Grade I Arkansas Derby. In his favor, his sire was the aforementioned Curlin. He should move up on a wet track. Yet, how far up? Ricardo Santana, Jr. is in the irons for the Hall-of Fame trainer from “The Streets of Laredo,” Steve Asmussen.

JUSTIFY. Tympany! The likely prohibitive, odds-on favorite. Do I hear 1-to-5? This Scat Daddy-bred is unbeaten in four starts. He’s proven that he belongs. Frankly, I believe he towers over this field. He should be on or near the lead. He easily handles the wet track. He’s not meeting in tHe Preakness a caliber of horse that he’s hasn’t already defeated. Further, you’ve likely heard of “The Cinderella Man,” James J. Braddock, and possibly “The Miracle Man,” George Stallings of the 1914 “Miracle Braves”; well, jockey Mike Smith is “The Money Man.” Bob Baffert trains.

BRAVAZO, although he didn’t hit the board in “The Derby,” he did, according to his jockey Luis Contreras, handle the off-going. This guy did win the Grade II Risen Star at Fairgrounds. Yet, is he of the same caliber has some of the others entered here in the Preakness? I have my doubts. However, having said that, I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he completed an exotic. He does have wet-track lineage, e.g., Cee’s Tizzy, Awesome Again, etc. D. Wayne Lukas trains. The Panamanian-born, Luis Saez, is in the irons.

[PaceAdvantage]

Good to see you back up on here Teach. Hope you cash some tickets today!