Closer should have won this Derby

[CincyHorseplayer]

This is all just my theory but I think closers need more races to get into race shape for the derby. Up close types get conditioned because of being near the pace. I think the closers need more races because the variance in pace. Again this is just my opinion. You obviously also have to be an A talent. Add more conditioning during the current year by more races and have an A talent closer and you have the edge in a race with this pace. My take.

[Vinnie]

Hey Cincy:

I just wanted to say your post reminded me of an excellent post you had earlier made regarding Mendelssohn who is an excellent horse by any measure. When he won that UAE Derby he went extremely well but the fractions were in something near or approximating 25 for the 1/4 and 48 for the half. I knew that he was in all likelihood going to be uncomfortable in the pace scenario I foresaw coming to fruition for the KY Derby. And, add to that the ridiculous slop, etc.., I knew that given the circumstances he was going to be up against it in the Derby.

Your post is what got me off of him in this instance where I didn't include him on my tickets, and I appreciate it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Hey Cincy:

I just wanted to say your post reminded me of an excellent post you had earlier made regarding Mendelssohn who is an excellent horse by any measure. When he won that UAE Derby he went extremely well but the fractions were in something near or approximating 25 for the 1/4 and 48 for the half. I knew that he was in all likelihood going to be uncomfortable in the pace scenario I foresaw coming to fruition for the KY Derby. And, add to that the ridiculous slop, etc.., I knew that given the circumstances he was going to be up against it in the Derby.

Your post is what got me off of him in this instance where I didn't include him on my tickets, and I appreciate it.

I was determined to bet him after the UAE Derby. But definitely talked myself out of that. In my opinion I just wised up after Oaks Friday. I hate horizontal bets at Churchill. They are chalk and nonsense. After the rains came I stopped dirt betting altogether and stuck to single races on the lawn. Splendid day! This is 2 of 3 years I bet against the favorite in the turf classic because I thought they would be short off layoffs. Reducing my plays I loaded up on what I did play. Fun day! Thanks Vin!

[GMB@BP]

Just to point out in Dubai there is no run up so that first fraction will always be slow and making direct timing comparisons of fractions difficult.

I think he set a fair pace in the prep race.

Problem was it was never going to be a fair pace, it was going to be much faster than he had ever encountered. Even many of the dirt routers here faced sprint paces in their maiden races.

[papillon]

In his most recent interview he mentioned how he surprised no one is talking about the internal fractions of the derby. With those fractions, in a normal race those coming from behind would have passed Justify and Good Magic like they were standing still. He feels that most of the horses were compromised by their trip, which is why he's taking another shot.

TBH, not sure it will make a difference though, Noah's flood is in progress, and sealed, sloppy tracks aren't kind to closers.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by papillon

In his most recent interview he mentioned how he surprised no one is talking about the internal fractions of the derby. With those fractions, in a normal race those coming from behind would have passed Justify and Good Magic like they were standing still. He feels that most of the horses were compromised by their trip, which is why he's taking another shot.

TBH, not sure it will make a difference though, Noah's flood is in progress, and sealed, sloppy tracks aren't kind to closers.

The question is will he get the same pace setup in this race?

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Hey Cincy:

I just wanted to say your post reminded me of an excellent post you had earlier made regarding Mendelssohn who is an excellent horse by any measure. When he won that UAE Derby he went extremely well but the fractions were in something near or approximating 25 for the 1/4 and 48 for the half. I knew that he was in all likelihood going to be uncomfortable in the pace scenario I foresaw coming to fruition for the KY Derby. And, add to that the ridiculous slop, etc.., I knew that given the circumstances he was going to be up against it in the Derby.

Your post is what got me off of him in this instance where I didn't include him on my tickets, and I appreciate it.

If you use the logic that Mendelssohn's biggest problem in the derby was never having faced fast fractions, and that he ran moderate to slow fractions ine the UAE, you have to account for why West Coast, even with the bias, couldn't handle Thunder Snow's pace, when TS ran slower then Mendelssohn at every call. Why couldn't West Coast out hussle TS to the rail?

I haven't wanted to say anything about Mendelssohn's derby performance, because anything said will in all likelihood get me jumped for making excuses about a very bad result of horse I had chosen.

But I will say this: To properly evaluate Mendelssohn's performance, it helps if you compare it to Nobel Indy's. They ran hip to head from the first turn until Ryan Moore pulled Mendelssohn up after he got squeezed again on the far turn. Noble Indy broke very sharply and was outside of the melee, so avoided Magnum Moon's righthand turn. He also avoided the Mendelssohn sandwich that quickly followed (Magnum Moon laying on Mendelssohn's left flank, Enticed laying on his right being forced into him by Audible), running just in front of it, with his jockey oddly standing in the stirrups, turned around, looking back at it, which seems very unsafe under the circumstances.

Mendelssohn cleared that mess, caught the tail end of the first flight with Noble Indy by the first turn and then ran side by side with him at the end of the first flight for most of the race. Noble Indy wasn't pulled up, but was kaput regardless and finished 17 or 18 IIRC. Every Pletcher but Audible did very poorly. Every horse from 14 out did very poorly, but for Instilled Regard.

He doesn't appear to have had anymore trouble with the pace than Noble Indy, less if you account for having been rushed up. So you have to decide if that is the case, or if Noble Indy can't really handle hot fractions.

Moore was very clear that Mendelssohn had no trouble with the track and wasn't even acting bothered by the kickback, which makes sense--his brothers didn't either.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by papillon

If you use the logic that Mendelssohn's biggest problem in the derby was never having faced fast fractions, and that he ran moderate to slow fractions ine the UAE, you have to account for why West Coast, even with the bias, couldn't handle Thunder Snow's pace, when TS ran slower then Mendelssohn at every call. Why couldn't West Coast out hussle TS to the rail?

Thunder Snow was hustled from his outside post while Castellano on West Coast took a hold of his mount and conceded the early lead to Thunder Snow, apparently unawares of the dramatic bias.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Thunder Snow was hustled from his outside post while Castellano on West Coast took a hold of his mount and conceded the early lead to Thunder Snow, apparently unawares of the dramatic bias.

I wonder if he rides him back.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I wonder if he rides him back.

He sure shouldn't. That was dreadful.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by papillon

In his most recent interview he mentioned how he surprised no one is talking about the internal fractions of the derby. With those fractions, in a normal race those coming from behind would have passed Justify and Good Magic like they were standing still. He feels that most of the horses were compromised by their trip, which is why he's taking another shot.

TBH, not sure it will make a difference though, Noah's flood is in progress, and sealed, sloppy tracks aren't kind to closers.

I absolutely love Lone Sailor, but I'd be saving him for a different race. I just can't see a way to use him, unless I'm really missing something.