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Old 11-11-2017, 02:04 PM   #91
zawaaa
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Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
Perhaps some of the players who complained should have read the rules and voiced objections beforehand and/or figured out how to best use the rules to benefit their own tournament strategy.
perhaps, but, the rule change was poorly conveyed AT BEST

Last edited by zawaaa; 11-11-2017 at 02:11 PM. Reason: and, as some have suggested, it seemed to be designed to benefit the few, rather than the many
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Old 11-11-2017, 02:32 PM   #92
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OK. Let's see where that puts you. All 10 entries bet an even money horse and for the sake of the argument 5 of them win. I am assuming they are all betting $7,500 to win. So then the 5 winners each have $15,000 of bankroll which they then bet on a second even money horse. If any of the 5 win they would only have $30,000, hardly a winning amount for the tournament. I wouldn't ask for my entry fee back if I knew 10 people were going to apply this strategy against me.
I think a lot of people may be thinking in terms of probability of winning instead of long term ROI.

If you control more entries you certainly increase your chances of winning, but you are also making a much larger upfront investment that will often go totally bust and make up for the extra wins on the downside.

If you and a partner use a dutching technique to guarantee you have at least 1 entry in great shape, you are also guaranteeing that several of your entries are doomed. Many of your competitors will be disadvantaged against your guaranteed winner, but they are very advantaged against your doomed entries.

I don't think there's much of a way to change that long term math.

Granted, I am not tournament player and haven't given this a lot of thought.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-11-2017 at 02:41 PM.
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Old 11-11-2017, 02:39 PM   #93
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classhandicapper,

the reason players want multiple entries is almost invariably:

(a) less variance
(b) more profit
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Old 11-11-2017, 02:45 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by zawaaa View Post
classhandicapper,

the reason players want multiple entries is almost invariably:

(a) less variance
(b) more profit

I understand the less variance part of it totally. Even when I play for cash, I sometimes bet two horses to win or win/place in part to reduce the volatility. But long term, I don't win any extra money. I just win more bets.
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Old 11-11-2017, 02:52 PM   #95
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Long term, I don't win any extra money. I just win more bets.
yes, i understand that

you're missing my point, though
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Old 11-11-2017, 02:57 PM   #96
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I don't believe that the rule change was just an oversight due to lack of foresight. The rule change worked exactly as it was intended.
Completely agree. One I would like to understand is Breeders Cup tournament rules years ago were originally intended to increase betting and churn by requiring a minimum number of bets each day among its participants. Then on the recommendation of this focus group, the rules were changed such that the exact opposite is most advantageous as proven by the results this year.

And there are people who actually wonder why this industry is unable to grow wagering handle the past two decades. Look no further than the management within.
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Old 11-11-2017, 03:08 PM   #97
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I have never followed these tournaments and the only tournaments I have any experience with is the wps tournaments at Derby Wars(to date I have played in maybe 20). Thus my knowledge of tourmaments is basically nada.


My guess is that the groups that are colluding and playing in teams have mastered that art of winning these tournaments. It seems obvious to me that the penalty for not betting races that was originally part of the rules created a huge roadblock for them to successfully do so and they lobbied for rule change for that very reason. Whoever went along with it was completely suckered.

Once again I bring up the R word, Responsibility. If you are going to host a contest, it is your responsibility to make sure these tournaments are fair to everyone (alluded to by Track Phantom). Obviously the Breeders Cup Betting Challenge failed to do so. They basically took everyone's $2500 entry fee after they recklessly changed the rules to accomodate a few long time players who had ulterior motives in requesting the rule changes (not sure when these rule changes occurred). It basically reeks, but what else would you expect in the racing industry?

To be honest, I was sort of on the Andy C side of the fence (I wasn't quite understanding the advantage gained) until I heard Jonathon Kinchen explain. Then the lightbulb sort of hit. 10 entries with $7500 can basically be converted easitly into on entry with about $60,000 to $65,000 just by dutching one race and I am sure there are even better ways of doing something similar. It basically puts the guy with a $7500 starting bankroll at such a disadvantage (he has to make 23 x his bankroll, while the guy with 10 entries only has to make about 2 times his remainiing $60,000).
even if you have 3 or 4 groups of 6(entries) doing something similar it makes it extremely tough on the guy with just one entry.
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Old 11-11-2017, 04:34 PM   #98
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To be honest, I was sort of on the Andy C side of the fence (I wasn't quite understanding the advantage gained) until I heard Jonathon Kinchen explain. Then the lightbulb sort of hit. 10 entries with $7500 can basically be converted easitly into on entry with about $60,000 to $65,000 just by dutching one race and I am sure there are even better ways of doing something similar. It basically puts the guy with a $7500 starting bankroll at such a disadvantage (he has to make 23 x his bankroll, while the guy with 10 entries only has to make about 2 times his remainiing $60,000).
even if you have 3 or 4 groups of 6(entries) doing something similar it makes it extremely tough on the guy with just one entry.
I spoke only of the winner. To my knowledge he was not involved with dutching with other players. I am quite aware and agree that players would have an unfair advantage in a team dutching situation. The rap on the winner was that he was involved in lobbying for the rule change which worked with his strategy. Apparently the rule change was unknown or misinterpreted by many players.
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Old 11-11-2017, 04:38 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think a lot of people may be thinking in terms of probability of winning instead of long term ROI.

If you control more entries you certainly increase your chances of winning, but you are also making a much larger upfront investment that will often go totally bust and make up for the extra wins on the downside.

If you and a partner use a dutching technique to guarantee you have at least 1 entry in great shape, you are also guaranteeing that several of your entries are doomed. Many of your competitors will be disadvantaged against your guaranteed winner, but they are very advantaged against your doomed entries.

I don't think there's much of a way to change that long term math.

Granted, I am not tournament player and haven't given this a lot of thought.
I concur with your analysis. My comment spoke specifically to a strategy of betting even money favorites.
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Old 11-11-2017, 06:50 PM   #100
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Is there any edge a player who isn't in a tournament can gain by camp following these big tournaments,which have mandatory tracks/races they are betting into?
There are some large wagers being made into the contest pools,and many aren't going to win, leaving some extra opportunities for outside the box players to exploit;or just keep an eye on the money flows to see where the action is...
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Old 11-11-2017, 07:00 PM   #101
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To be honest, I was sort of on the Andy C side of the fence (I wasn't quite understanding the advantage gained) until I heard Jonathon Kinchen explain.
Poindexter,

Is there a link to where I could hear/see that explanation?


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Old 11-11-2017, 07:05 PM   #102
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Dave,

CJ posted a link to the DRF Podcast back on page 5 in post #61 of this thread.



-jp

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Old 11-11-2017, 11:05 PM   #103
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Dave,
CJ posted a link to the DRF Podcast back on page 5 in post #61 of this thread.
.
Thanks, Jeff.
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:18 AM   #104
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I spoke only of the winner. To my knowledge he was not involved with dutching with other players. I am quite aware and agree that players would have an unfair advantage in a team dutching situation. The rap on the winner was that he was involved in lobbying for the rule change which worked with his strategy. Apparently the rule change was unknown or misinterpreted by many players.
Sounds like he should be involved in politics...
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Old 11-12-2017, 02:06 AM   #105
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If "there really was no penalty" then why go through the motions of posting presumed lowered bankroll amounts that 98% of the players thought were actualized on players who skipped bets early on...? Except as a smokescreen...? As someone said earlier...this whole thing reeks of unfairness with as many as 11 entries skipping Day 1 entirely and nearly all the rest of the players not in the know...

...but now the contest organizers are on the horns of a dilemma: What they should do is make it right for all the players by returning their original fees...change the rules back to the status quo ante or to something fair and restore their credibility...but they would no doubt face lawsuits from the top performers if they cancelled their winning proceeds...
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