Calculating EPR

[Laminarman]

I'm getting into Hambleton's book Pace Makes the Race which is all new to me. In calculating the EPR, they look at the second call time. But this is the second call of the LEADER of the race, not of the horse you're looking at. Is this where they get the phrase "pace makes the race?" Because they only adjust that first fraction (and eventually the final) by adding or subtracting lengths of you horse relative to the "pace of the race" Am I under or over thinking?? Getting into the meat of the book now and it's eye opening.

[infrontby1]

If this is the book with the yellow sleeve, all I remember was that when you added the early and late ratings, all you pretty much got was an adjusted final time.

[MPRanger]

I would love to get a copy of Pace Makes the Race but I don't have one and have never read it. There are two versions. The first one contained input from Howard Sartin and Michael Pizzola. Their parts were apparently deleted from the version you have.

However, Michael Pizzola discussed PMTR in his book Handicapping Magic. His criticism was the way PMTR adds final fraction to an earlier one only to ultimately yield a final time rating and not a true pace rating.

Handicapping Magic teaches you a way to create a pace balanced rating which modifies the speed rating in the form (not the speed figure) by the second call pace of the race which sounds similar to what you are asking about. Pizzola calls it a PBS number for Pace Balanced Speed rating. I know this PBS concept was used during the Sartin era because I have read about it on some publication they released back then which I read on the Sartin Pace and Cap website and Michael Pizzola was the author.

This PBS works really good at seperating contenders and non contenders. I use it all the time though I modified it to actually use the speed figure instead of the speed rating. But it's not required to do that. I just like speed figures.

[DJofSD]

Originally Posted by Laminarman

I'm getting into Hambleton's book Pace Makes the Race which is all new to me. In calculating the EPR, they look at the second call time. But this is the second call of the LEADER of the race, not of the horse you're looking at. Is this where they get the phrase "pace makes the race?" Because they only adjust that first fraction (and eventually the final) by adding or subtracting lengths of you horse relative to the "pace of the race" Am I under or over thinking?? Getting into the meat of the book now and it's eye opening.

No, your are not over thinking it -- you've got it.

That system is velocity based. And while it has been improved upon and others have adopted it, it is an excellent way to start. And, as another has posted, it is basically what you do to compute PBS numbers.

Using TPR numbers you should be able to reach a 60% hit rate betting two horses to win (dutched to the odds). I don't recall if it is covered in "Pace Makes the Race" or old yeller or in a particular issue of the "Follow Up" but there is a simple form for recording your results over 20 races -- 1 cycle.

Some will question the betting two horses to win. Yes, it is not the most efficient however you still can show a profit, and, the purpose of doing so is more psychological than it is fiscal.

Good luck.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Laminarman

But this is the second call of the LEADER of the race, not of the horse you're looking at. Is this where they get the phrase "pace makes the race?"

The time at the pace call is the pace of that race. What you are trying to determine is how did a horse run against the pace of its race, what is the likely pace of today's race, and how can a given horse be expected to run against the likely pace of today's race.

For someone just getting into pace analysis, precision is not necessary. If a horse generally runs well against a fast early pace, and if the pace today shapes up as slow, you have to question that horse as a contender.

[Laminarman]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

No, your are not over thinking it -- you've got it.

That system is velocity based. And while it has been improved upon and others have adopted it, it is an excellent way to start. And, as another has posted, it is basically what you do to compute PBS numbers.

Using TPR numbers you should be able to reach a 60% hit rate betting two horses to win (dutched to the odds). I don't recall if it is covered in "Pace Makes the Race" or old yeller or in a particular issue of the "Follow Up" but there is a simple form for recording your results over 20 races -- 1 cycle.

Some will question the betting two horses to win. Yes, it is not the most efficient however you still can show a profit, and, the purpose of doing so is more psychological than it is fiscal.

Good luck.

Thank you, that's very helpful. I can see the psychological benefit to winning some races. I was doing just OK, but lately doing just crappy. Thalaskos recommended this book and it's been a new way to think about things since I'm so new to it. I have stopped all betting for now since my "traditional" way of meager handicapping was not working and it was becoming discouraging. I'll return and try a new system, or at least try to incorporate some pace analysis into the game.

[Secondbest]

After you finish reading and absorbing PMTR,I would suggest you listen to Ranger and read Handicapping Magic.

[Tom]

Both of the PMTR books have some good stuff in them.
The original has chapters by each author covering special circumstances, like using the fulcrum to pick line, or your confidence in the numbers based on which line you used ( all from last line is high confidence). The softcover has some stuff about RS/Pos for the first call that i interesting.

HM is really good book itself.

[Fingal]

Originally Posted by MPRanger

I would love to get a copy of Pace Makes the Race but I don't have one and have never read it. There are two versions. The first one contained input from Howard Sartin and Michael Pizzola. Their parts were apparently deleted from the version you have.

If one goes looking around the internet (Alibris, Amazon used, Ebay,etc.) or your local used book store be sure to check the edition. The original is 1991 & the second is 1995.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Laminarman

I'm getting into Hambleton's book Pace Makes the Race which is all new to me. In calculating the EPR, they look at the second call time. But this is the second call of the LEADER of the race, not of the horse you're looking at. Is this where they get the phrase "pace makes the race?" Because they only adjust that first fraction (and eventually the final) by adding or subtracting lengths of you horse relative to the "pace of the race" Am I under or over thinking?? Getting into the meat of the book now and it's eye opening.

First read the book beginning to end, without worrying too much if you don't understand everything. The first reading is supposed to be only an initiation to the topic. After you read the whole thing, then come back and read it again a little more slowly...while making an effort to understand what the author(s) are trying to say. This book isn't just about pace handicapping; it also provides Dick Schmidt's insights into money management...which alone are worth the price of the book, IMO.

Handicapping books should not be read as one reads a novel. The writing is often technical...and requires more than just one reading in order to be fully understood. The more you read, the more you comprehend...and the more your own mind stretches. Such is the nature of this game...

[crestridge]

Try looking at the ratios of EPR-FFR=TPR--it's very interesting what you discover with ratios.

[Laminarman]

As I'm working my way through this now I'm getting a little confused. The EPR and FFR charts he has in there are like 20+ years old, do they still hold? Also, the only thing I can find is the American Turf track equalization charts to help with comparing shippers.etc. I started trying to figure out PARS but now my head is spinning and I need to put this down for a while.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Laminarman

As I'm working my way through this now I'm getting a little confused. The EPR and FFR charts he has in there are like 20+ years old, do they still hold? Also, the only thing I can find is the American Turf track equalization charts to help with comparing shippers.etc. I started trying to figure out PARS but now my head is spinning and I need to put this down for a while.

No one said it would be easy; this is a pretty difficult game...where you are trying to take money away from some pretty smart people.

But there is an easier way to go about it, should you so choose. You can Google handicapping systems/methods. There...you will find plenty of "highly profitable", "easy-to-use" handicapping methods, which their generous creators have chosen to part with for a rather modest fee. And there is enough variety to suit even the most discriminating taste...

[Laminarman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

No one said it would be easy; this is a pretty difficult game...where you are trying to take money away from some pretty smart people.

But there is an easier way to go about it, should you so choose. You can Google handicapping systems/methods. There...you will find plenty of "highly profitable", "easy-to-use" handicapping methods, which their generous creators have chosen to part with for a rather modest fee. And there is enough variety to suit even the most discriminating taste...

Thanks Thaskalos, but there's a reason I grow most of my own vegetables, shoot my own deer and ducks to eat and build my own things: I'm stupid. I never take the easy way I guess. I'd rather learn the process. Or...I'm just stupid. My wife said to go buy chicken. Buy vegetables. And go play the slots. Not my style exactly. And then if I decide to just buy a system I might understand why I'm getting ripped off, right?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Laminarman

Thanks Thaskalos, but there's a reason I grow most of my own vegetables, shoot my own deer and ducks to eat and build my own things: I'm stupid. I never take the easy way I guess. I'd rather learn the process. Or...I'm just stupid. My wife said to go buy chicken. Buy vegetables. And go play the slots. Not my style exactly. And then if I decide to just buy a system I might understand why I'm getting ripped off, right?

I can't help you with this book since I've never read it. I don't want to endorse anyone's methodology whether it's Hambleton, Giles or even Brohamer's. As suggested, you'll need to read whichever pace handicapping book several times to absorb the concepts. I recommend that you also watch video replays. Both of these plus some other handicapping ideas I was already using changed my game.

There are several FREE video replay sites on the internet and you should take the time to watch before making wagers.