A Little Warm - 3rd in the PA Derby - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

GatetoWire · 09-25-2010, 06:52 PM

Interested in hearing what everyone here thinks.

Give me your take:

1. A solid effort but beaten by better
2. Pedigree has finally caught up. Anything more than a mile is a stretch
3. Gomez moved too soon and used up his energy in the turn and at the head of the stretch costing him the victory
4. After some big efforts at Delaware and Saratoga his form is cycling down.

Bullet Plane · 09-25-2010, 07:07 PM

Don't think he lost anything in this race. Morning Line is a late developing monster. First Dude ran one hell of a race and is a beast.

Little Warm gave 8 lbs to Morning Line and 6 lbs to First Dude. Also lost his jock to M/L because they didn't plan on running him in here until the last minute. Don't think he was 100% cranked.

And lost by, what, a nose and neck?

No, I don't take anything away from him in this race. Absolutely nothing.
One hell of a game try.

Robert Fischer · 09-25-2010, 07:19 PM

I'm hoping to catch the replay on youtube or something later, as I haven't seen the race to make a visual appraisal.

when i look at the chart(and having to make assumptions w/out the vid), it looks like the horse who looked like he might be the best horse in the race coming in(Morning Line) had an excellent trip, and that as they neared the stretch Gomez could see the race was close to being over and had to bid with A Little Warm. His likely decision was justified with the continuation of the action to the finish.

Without going beyond the literal paper form of ALW in the past, and without seeing anything to indicate something other than what the chart appears to indicate, I wouldn't really make any sweeping judgment on A Little Warm other than that he can't afford to give a competitive horse a better trip and then play catch-up by doing extra running.

point given · 09-25-2010, 07:35 PM

WAS A GOOD EFFORT PEAKED IN jIM DANDY

bisket · 09-25-2010, 08:08 PM

this race is a good spot to highlight an opinion i have and use frequently when handicapping horses like the top 3 finishers in this race. i think the point i'm about to make also pertains to an opinion i have in regards to the article crist penned recently. looking at the pps going into this race my opinion was it was very difficult to differentiate the better horse between the 3 top finishers. all have similar styles and ability in my opinion.

when looking at a race with a distance of 1 1/8 mile i'm more inclined to give horses with this style of running the nod. although my feelings are that horses like these 3 are at their distance limit. these 3 runners are basically the niche that our breeding farms have carved out for themselves.... speed. now i give these type runners the nod at this distance, but the fresh one is usually your winner if they are equal in ability. early speed has the edge at this distance, but in my opinion when raced regularly they don't HAVE THE STAMINA TO WIN A CLOSE RACE!!!! now this also depends on the horse as some won't let others pass, but i don't see that with these three. so if i put another runner alongside them in the stretch i take this into consideration. a closer or even runner will beat them alot of times or the freshest one. its that extra little bit that speed doesn't have when raced regularly at a route.

this is why horses are raced much more sparingly than in years past. the vast majority of our runners are speed horses and just aren't....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIhlO...eature=related

buncha pretty boys that race one time and need to be put away for 2 months before they can race back to their top. it takes stamina to have more capabilities than that.

Dahoss9698 · 09-25-2010, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I'm hoping to catch the replay on youtube or something later, as I haven't seen the race to make a visual appraisal.

when i look at the chart(and having to make assumptions w/out the vid), it looks like the horse who looked like he might be the best horse in the race coming in(Morning Line) had an excellent trip, and that as they neared the stretch Gomez could see the race was close to being over and had to bid with A Little Warm. His likely decision was justified with the continuation of the action to the finish.

Without going beyond the literal paper form of ALW in the past, and without seeing anything to indicate something other than what the chart appears to indicate, I wouldn't really make any sweeping judgment on A Little Warm other than that he can't afford to give a competitive horse a better trip and then play catch-up by doing extra running.

You should watch the race.

Dahoss9698 · 09-25-2010, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatetoWire

Interested in hearing what everyone here thinks.

Give me your take:

1. A solid effort but beaten by better
2. Pedigree has finally caught up. Anything more than a mile is a stretch
3. Gomez moved too soon and used up his energy in the turn and at the head of the stretch costing him the victory
4. After some big efforts at Delaware and Saratoga his form is cycling down.

I'll take number 2. He really seemed to struggle that last furlong. He was carried by the track in the Jim Dandy and IMO his connections should keep him at a mile or shorter.

Jasonm921 · 09-25-2010, 08:32 PM

I have one thing to say about this race. First Dude is a bit of a head case. How many races now have we seen this horse back up on the turn and then rally strong enough to catch up to the lead pack right before the wire. I would take the blinkers off this horse and just let him run from slightly off the pace. He needs a target to run at.

bigmack · 09-25-2010, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I'm hoping to catch the replay on youtube or something later, as I haven't seen the race to make a visual appraisal.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/video/rotw-flash.cfm

Robert Fischer · 09-25-2010, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigmack

http://www.equibase.com/premium/video/rotw-flash.cfm

excellent

Headbanger · 09-25-2010, 08:59 PM

More than anything it was just really bad horses outstaggering and outlasting other bad horses. Let's be realistic, Morning Line ain't much. Most of these horses have yet to ever really run a really good race, and many of them have only run one really fast race if they have run one.

Robert Fischer · 09-25-2010, 09:19 PM

ML = great trip, only average ride in terms of saving horse
ALW = slightly worse trip, shortened stride late
FD = potential big underlay but not enough fan money in the pools, still almost won this g3/allowance contest, dizney/romans got a nice year from this horse but the big natural talent would have needed a move-up from a more potent barn to be a true secondary factor in the division

Robert Fischer · 09-25-2010, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Headbanger

More than anything it was just really bad horses outstaggering and outlasting other bad horses. Let's be realistic, Morning Line ain't much. Most of these horses have yet to ever really run a really good race, and many of them have only run one really fast race if they have run one.

shit they went 1:47.85
i don't want 3yo allowance/ G3 types going any faster than that anyway

Headbanger · 09-25-2010, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

shit they went 1:47.85
i don't want 3yo allowance/ G3 types going any faster than that anyway

You must not know anything about Philly Park...they don't run enough races at the distance to really compare it. The track was also lightning fast today. 8K F&M Claimers went in 1:09.3 and Starter Allowance horses went in 1:09.2. Most of the dirt races were for dirt cheap horses as well today. Let's see how many races these horses go on to win in the future, especially at the graded stakes level.

Bullet Plane · 09-25-2010, 10:48 PM

Ugh, let me see here....

First Dude ( who has over 600K in the bag before this race) lost the Preakness by 3/4 of a length to Lookin at Lucky-who will be three year old of the year.

Little Warm already won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy.

Now Morning Line beats both of them. Without the need of speed figures- he's a pretty, pretty, pretty damn good horse.

As to the speed of the race...

the first two routes on the card were a little fast, the second two, not that fast at all..track may have slowed during the course of the day...

1:47 and change is a seriously fast 1 1/8 time at PARK... the standard for graded stakes older horses according to the Cynthia Publishing Par Times is 1:49 flat.

Baring injury or retirement to stud duty, all three will win, place, and show in more stakes races.