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Old 07-23-2007, 09:03 AM   #1
nobeyerspls
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General Money Management Discussion

Lots of stuff on here about handicapping but not much about money management. In my long experience with this I have become a very good handicapper but am only now getting better with wagering strategies. This game is a two-step dance and getting one right doesn't help as they are equally important. In the past my greatest handicapping achievements have often underscored my worst money management failures.
So forget about handicapping methods for awhile. Whether you are a pace handicapper, angle player, number cruncher, or someone who relies on class your method will help you find a horse (or horses). What do you do with it? How many of you simply make large straight bets? What kind of exotics work for you and how do you play them? What percentage of races do you skip? Uniform wagering amounts or the occasional plunge? Assuming you all keep very good records, how much can you pull out of the tracks over a year?
Among a small circle of acquaintances at my simulcast facilty, the style of wagering differs widely. I'm guessing that's true here.
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Old 07-23-2007, 09:37 AM   #2
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my method of money management is very simple...it comes from my vegas days..i have a set amount i will bet everyday...i won't go over that..if i'm winning, i only bet back 75% of the returns from each bet...25% goes into the wallet....that way i'm sure to go home a winner..
as far as bets, i like to do a key horse with three others in an exacta reverse..
i used to bet win only as well, but the horses kept coming in second, so now i do place bets..if i believe the horse is gonna win, i bet it to place..
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Old 07-23-2007, 09:59 AM   #3
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Its a fine line between handicapping and betting. If you knew the winner, 2nd place finisher, 3rd place finisher and 4th place finisher, you can bet a cold superfecta and be done with it. You wouldn't need to know how to bet if you had the top 4 in order, right?

So, the better you are at predicting who's going to win, be 2nd, etc the better your betting is going to be.

The most important thing to know about intertwining your betting and your handicapping is this. Coming up with the key horse is much easier than being able to rate the other 9 horses in the field (lets use a 10 horse race as an example).

If you don't know much about the talents of the other 9 animals, you can't maximize any 'edge' you have on your main pick or key horse. Thats why great handicappers not only can sniff out the right win bet, but they can rate the other 9 horses and set up some exacta, tri or super bets.

My advice would be this. Before you worry about betting strategy, try and become a better handicapper. No matter how good you already are, you can always get better. As your handicapping improves, so will your betting and structuring (of exotics)
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Old 07-23-2007, 01:03 PM   #4
nobeyerspls
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Some examples

Let me give you two recent examples, one involving failure and the other success. I have to redboard here but maybe by including the failure I'll be forgiven.
I found two horses in the second race at Arlington a while back. One was 8-1 and the other 40-1. The favorite had to be respected so I boxed those three in tri and used my two on top of exactas. I really liked the 8-1 so I bet him win/place and started a pick3 (1x3x2) with him. He was off the board, the 40-1 won, and the favorite ran third. I got zilch. Adding the longshot to the pick 3 would have been an extra $6 and would have produced over $400.
The race following the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie yielded one of those rare surface plays that I search for on a daily basis. A filly coming out of fast races on Woodbines polytrack where she performed poorly was entered in a maiden race comprised of very slow animals. When you find one like this the first decision is vertical, horizontal, or both. Since I could not find any other horses in that race, I chose horizontal. $8 doubles with my two horses in the stakes and $4 pick3's with three horses in the prior race. My key horse in the last race won by five lengths and paid $38.50. I cashed all the bets and the leverage from the horizontal plays more than doubled what I would have won just betting her straight.
So, I see handicapping and wagering as separate but equal disciplines.
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Old 07-23-2007, 01:51 PM   #5
Bill Olmsted
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If you can't show a long term profit with flat bets then no betting scheme in the universe will convert that loss into a profit. When starting out, keep it simple. Bet the same amount for a couple of hundred bets. If you win, THEN raise your bet size. If you are a really a good handicapper, THEN you can bet different amounts according to how you "feel" about a certain horse's chances of winning (or placing or showing, etc. etc.) Good luck!
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Old 07-23-2007, 02:02 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Olmsted
If you can't show a long term profit with flat bets then no betting scheme in the universe will convert that loss into a profit. When starting out, keep it simple. Bet the same amount for a couple of hundred bets. If you win, THEN raise your bet size. If you are a really a good handicapper, THEN you can bet different amounts according to how you "feel" about a certain horse's chances of winning (or placing or showing, etc. etc.) Good luck!
True, but there are a lot of decent cappers who don't control their betting as you mentioned. They either chase losses or bet too much after a win. Anybody who hits a $30 winner has no business going home broke but I have seen it happen many times.
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Old 07-23-2007, 02:09 PM   #7
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We make the subject of "money management" more complicated than it really is. A lot of horseplayers are under the delusion that altering bet size will somehow compensate for the fact that then can't win staight up (flat bets). Ain't gonna happen.... Ain't gonna happen....Ain't gonna happen.....

Bottom line: Forget about money management. Learn how to handicap.
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Old 07-23-2007, 03:43 PM   #8
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Handicapping vs. Money Management

Quote:
Originally Posted by nobeyerspls
Lots of stuff on here about handicapping but not much about money management. In my long experience with this I have become a very good handicapper but am only now getting better with wagering strategies. This game is a two-step dance and getting one right doesn't help as they are equally important. In the past my greatest handicapping achievements have often underscored my worst money management failures.
So forget about handicapping methods for awhile. Whether you are a pace handicapper, angle player, number cruncher, or someone who relies on class your method will help you find a horse (or horses). What do you do with it? How many of you simply make large straight bets? What kind of exotics work for you and how do you play them? What percentage of races do you skip? Uniform wagering amounts or the occasional plunge? Assuming you all keep very good records, how much can you pull out of the tracks over a year?
Among a small circle of acquaintances at my simulcast facilty, the style of wagering differs widely. I'm guessing that's true here.
Hi Nobeyerspls,

It is very good to see you still posting on the ‘Net horseracing chat rooms because I have enjoyed your many informative posts and now to address the issue you have raised; money management vs. handicapping.

I believe that in horseracing there are many more good handicappers than there are good money managers and I think the reason for this disparity is the lack of bettor discipline and patience, in other words the desire to win to “big” quickly by some bettors by placing multiple small wager combinations in the same betting pool (typically the exotic betting pools).

I realize that "one shoe" doesn't fit all feet, but my betting preference today is win wagering only (many years ago I wagered on exotics, but not anymore) and I bet on only one horse in a race and the odds must be at least 3-1 or better. My choice of betting is on 50-60 stakes races per year (particularly graded stakes).

My most recent failure was in this year’s KY Derby and my choices were posted on the PA website as 1. Curlin, 2. Street Sense and I put all of my “wooden nickels” on Curlin who went off at 5-1. However, Street Sense closed with odds of 4.90-1 and won the Derby. There were friends in my Derby party who suggested that I split my bet because of the odds, but my personal bettor discipline and patience told me not too. Incidentally, I recently recovered my losses with a Todd Pletcher stakes win (no, it wasn’t Red Giant and how I wish that it was).
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Old 07-23-2007, 04:16 PM   #9
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Old 07-23-2007, 04:18 PM   #10
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Come on. We can do it! Only one hundred and change and we get to 100k!
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Old 07-23-2007, 04:56 PM   #11
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To me money management means having the diciplne to stay "within" your bankroll. Doing so will allow you to be a little less emotional and avoid tap outs. Lets assume you take $1200 to the venue and handicap two or three cards. Three cards is my own personal choice because I pass several races that do not have enough entries in the fields, I do not have a strong enough feel for the race or the claiming level is below my personal "Mason -Dixon" line. No plays. I believe ....you should invest 3-6% of that bankroll on any particular race where you have a solid handicapping opinion that differs from the crowd. That is an average of $54 per race using this example. Could be less.... but never more than $72 or 6% You can choose the win pool or the exacts/trifecta pool if you are investing "vertically" in that race alone. That decision of what pool or mix of tickets comes from experience and the strength of your "overlay opinion. I won't let a key horse that I think will likely win go off at more than 3-1 without some head money. You can use hedges or savers if you prefer...... but you must play for the upside. You need to leverage your opinion for the bigger score to cover the other races where your key horse didn't fire or you lost a photo with your overlay. That is why I prefer exotics at the lower takeout tracks.
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Old 07-23-2007, 05:15 PM   #12
TonyK@HSH
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Dave Schwartz at www.horsestreet.com has some interesting and informative money management strategies. They are certainly worth a look if you're interested in money management

Good luck

TonyK
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Old 07-23-2007, 06:12 PM   #13
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Start with $200. Bet 1% of your bankroll to win only with a $2 minimum bet. When your bankroll doubles, you can raise your bet to $4. When it doubles again you can raise your bet to $8. If your bankroll should fall back down to a previous level--lower your bet to that old level.

If you're a winning player, your bankroll will increase. If you're a losing player, you're bankroll will eventually reach zero. You can then start over with another $200 and try again.

By the time your bankroll doubles, or reaches zero, you should have a pretty good idea whether or not you're doing something right.

Too slow for you? Not enough action? I wouldn't dream of only betting $2 a race. 1-800-Gamblers Anonymous.

If your bankroll keeps doubling, you'll be raising your bets accordingly--and most importantly--you will never be "overbetting" your bankroll.

Earn the right to bet more money.

[By the way, most horseplayers have no concept of money management whatsoever. One race they'll bet $20 to win and on another race the'll bet $60. And in yet a third race, they'll bet $50 to win and $50 worth of exactas, tris and pick 3s. Why? Two reasons: 1. No plan. 2. They had a better "feeling " in the latter two races.]
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Old 07-23-2007, 06:18 PM   #14
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Quote:
Earn the right to bet more money.
Agree 100 pct... sharp post. IMHO, money management is all about growing a smaller bankroll into a larger one.


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Old 07-23-2007, 06:19 PM   #15
Bill Olmsted
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[QUOTE=spilparc]

Earn the right to bet more money.

That is it in a nutshell. If you can't win with $2 bets then you won't win with $200 bets--or $2000 bets.
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