Physicality Handicapping? - Tell Shackleford

[xfile]

Shackleford is the poster child for the Non Believers of the merit of Physicality Handicapping. He was completely washed out, mental and jittery before the race. He looked horrible and seemed like he was going to leave his race behind the gate. A damn good example for those who do not give merit to Physicality Handicapping. Shackleford didn't know he left his race in the paddock and post and sweated off 20 pounds. Somebody forgot to tell him.

[illinoisbred]

The appearance and track behaivor of each and every animal can really only be compared to what and how they appeared in past races. Kidney sweat,profuse sweating,washiness is significant only if the animal never appeared that way in the past. Years ago,a friend of mine had horses with trainer Joe Broussard here in the midwest. One runner,stakes calibre,always appeared sweaty/washed out. I remember Broussard commenting...when he doesn't washout that will be the time to worry.

[xfile]

So where's the information on pre-race antics of every horse running in every race? You would have to have notes on how every horse behaves for the handicapper's/horseplayer's viewpoint. I was not referring to owners and trainers. Christ they should know their horse.

[illinoisbred]

Agree, if one attends the track daily and physicality/appearance is one's approach,the extensive note-keeping is most likely well worth the effort.

[Robert Goren]

The question is. How good would he be if he didn't wash out before the race?

[xfile]

Originally Posted by illinoisbred

Agree, if one attends the track daily and physicality/appearance is one's approach,the extensive note-keeping is most likely well worth the effort.

If a player only does one circuit at a time that's possible. Personally I look at every race at every track every day to find what I'm looking for. For someone like me - I can't use this approach. And your average player at an average town would not have the time for this obviously. Not enough hours in the day. It's a non-factor. Now IF there was a service that provides pre-race notes on every horse....There's a business idea for somebody. I think there's a need for it. At least enough info to run split-tests.

[harness2008]

Romans knew about the tendency of his horse to wash out pre race. That was mentioned in his post race interview. However it were the announcers on the telecast just prior to the start i.e. Donna Brothers, Gary Stevens who mentioned that it wasn't a good sign washing out probably because in general for most horses, it indeed is a negative sign. In fact Stevens even predicted a fast pace because of it just prior to the race.

So I believe the connections knew about it and were not concerned at all but the home audience was duped because the broadcasters failed to do their homework. Since the Triple Crown and prep races are covered in fine detail, someone should have spotted it and simply said that Shackleford is washing out but it shouldn't be a factor since he normally does that prior to a race.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by harness2008

Donna Brothers, Gary Stevens who mentioned that it wasn't a good sign washing out probably because in general for most horses, it indeed is a negative sign..

Agreed. #6 Sway Away was washed out too and ran terrible.

[xfile]

Originally Posted by harness2008

Romans knew about the tendency of his horse to wash out pre race. That was mentioned in his post race interview. However it were the announcers on the telecast just prior to the start i.e. Donna Brothers, Gary Stevens who mentioned that it wasn't a good sign washing out probably because in general for most horses, it indeed is a negative sign. In fact Stevens even predicted a fast pace because of it just prior to the race.

So I believe the connections knew about it and were not concerned at all but the home audience was duped because the broadcasters failed to do their homework. Since these and the prep races are covered in fine detail, someone should have spotted it and simply said that Shackleford is washing out but he always does that prior to a race.

I absolutely agree. I know a guy who canceled a $500 win bet on Shackleford based on what Brothers and Stevens said. Did I mention he was sick after the race? I warned him not to listen. I always mute the sound if it's just me watching. Never cancel a bet. Or go ahead and cancel a bet then go to another window, screen, etc and re-place the bet to throw off the Evil Spirits

[harness2008]

Wow, thats a tough one. Anyone in their right mind would have cancelled their bet on Shackleford based on what was said just prior to the race. I am not just saying this because this horse won, but I don't think that those comments should have been entirely negative towards the horse just because of a prevailing wisdom concerning washiness. In no uncertain terms Brothers and Stevens indicated that Shackleford left his race on the track prior to the race. Well, now we have learned that there are indeed exceptions to every rule and that the so called experts have their moments also.

[xfile]

My 2 favorite buttons in media life = MUTE and DELETE. Funny enough - the guy I was talking about became sick, washy and jittery AFTER the race.

[GameTheory]

Joe Takach used to have a watch service for So Cal. He'd be at the track every single day taking notes around the paddock, and then he'd run to the rail and watch the warmups -- more notes -- and then watch every horse after the race to see how the pulled up and if the jockey gave them a proper cool down gallop (more notes). You need enough subscribers to hire some assistants so someone can be at the track every day every minute or it sounds like a terrible grind. He did it for 10 years or so. The most valuable notes I found were the "poor pull-ups" (after race notes). Any horse that was a poor pull-up (some just out of jockey laziness) was an automatic toss in the next race. Was a great way to get rid of false favorites. I wonder if all the drugs negated that factor later...

[GatetoWire]

There will always be examples that defy rules.
That is why they are rules and not absolutes.
Most horses would not have ran their race if they acted like Shackleford did yesterday.

There are so many things that can go wrong with horse that you can only use these angles as guides.
Trust me that lots of people scored on AK in the Derby because of how he worked and looked.
In the Preakness a lot of those same people missed out because of the way Shackleford moved between the Derby and the Preakness and the way he looked on the track.

Every race is a puzzle and you have to use all the angles to figure it out. That is why it's so much fun and rewarding when you hit on the right angle.

Canceling wagers is also tricky business. For every Life At Ten in the BC you can find a Shackleford that wins.

[NWCTBob]

I too was thrown off by the TV announcers on Shackelford, but I had already called in the exacta box with Shack and AK. If I had waited, I would most likely not made the bet after hearing what was said. I have learned over the years, when ever you cancel or change your mind, the racing gods usually punish you, and the horse comes in.

[xfile]

@FullCardReports Twitter Feed: "Trainer #DaleRomans said better than a 50-50 chance #Shackleford goes to NY (#BelmontStakes) and he will confer with owners before decision"