I have to give Zenyatta her due. She's a Champ. Hats off to Blame - Page 23 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

cj · 11-07-2010, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Eh!!

Does not what i'm talking about happen here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1I9_Tx9t7z0

and here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2WkqdxHWbU

I could have run second if they allowed me to enter the Apple Blossom. I don't remember a race from 2007, sorry. I really don't remember the pace scenario or the abilities of the horses.

This is similar to those that said Quality Road should just as fast as he can and speed pop the field...how'd that work out?

cj · 11-07-2010, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SharpCat

If you compare the 2 trips i'm not sure how anyone can say both had good trips. Without question Blame had the better trip of the 2. While both horses were able to save ground on the turn Blame was able to run freely the whole turn while Zenyatta had to wait till the top of the strecth to do any running at all. That is where the Classic was won.

Why did I know this was coming from the Z fans? She had the same trip she always has, actually better than usual because the pace was fast. If she wasn't so slow early, she wouldn't have to wait...end of story.

mountainman · 11-07-2010, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SharpCat

I would have to disagree. I have watched the replay several times and have to say the key to the race was the far turn. I have actually have the race paused right now as the leaders hit the far turn. Blame is 7th at this point inside of Looking at Lucky with nothing absolutely nothing in front of him. Zenyatta is dead last at this point with 3 horses in front of her. As the leaders hit the 3/8th's pole Blame is still running freely as Etched and Looking at Luck pull to the outside to make there run. Zenyatta is still last in behind 3 horses and has not been able to make a run. Blame is able to run freely from the 3/8th's pole till the 1/4 pole when he has to split Etched and Looking at Lucky. Zenyatta finally gets a little room at the 1/4 pole has to shift out 5 paths and finally has daylight with 1-1/2 furlongs to go. Zenyatta ran very hard the last furlong but just could not quite catch Blame.

The best horse does not always win the race and this was the case here. Hard for Zenyatta to overcome the dream trip of Blame while she has to wait and wait some more to finally be able to run. No doubt in my mind Zenyatta is the better of the 2.

Whatever turbulence Zenyatta encountered can be considered EXTREMELY incidental given her running style. And not enough credit has been accorded Blame for bulling his way between horses and being able to make his own trip.
The best horse won.

Charlie D · 11-07-2010, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I could have run second if they allowed me to enter the Apple Blossom. I don't remember a race from 2007, sorry. I really don't remember the pace scenario or the abilities of the horses.

I have no idea whether you could have run second or not, but what i think the Apple Blossom and the other videos show is horses sprinting, accelarating past other horses on Dirt CJ just as they do on other surfaces.

cj · 11-07-2010, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D

I have no idea whether you could have run second or not, but what i think the Apple Blossom and the other videos show is horses sprinting, accelarating past other horses on Dirt CJ just as they do on other surfaces.

Of course they do, but a slower pace doesn't help them do it. It is just the opposite. And no, they aren't accelerating.

garyscpa · 11-07-2010, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Of course they do, but a slower pace doesn't help them do it. It is just the opposite. And no, they aren't accelerating.

He's probably got the European perspective (turf racing).

Charlie D · 11-07-2010, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Of course they do, but a slower pace doesn't help them do it. It is just the opposite. And no, they aren't accelerating.

If they are not accelerating how do Invasor and Affleet Alex pass the other horses after lost momentum due to having unclear passage and almost being brought down ??

Charlie D · 11-08-2010, 12:52 AM

How does this horse do what it does here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAM49-ay2qc

gm10 · 11-08-2010, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Sure, but not as much. If the pace were slower Blame wasn't losing, he'd have been positioned closer to the leader. You can't say that about Z. Blame's versatility is an asset, though others don't want to give him credit.

Sorry but you are seeing things too black and white again. Zenyatta just hadn't been 'prepared' for this kind of pace. She ran this kind of pace comfortably in 2008, so it's not exactly a lack of versatility. And I would call Blame a lot of positive things, but versatility is not his strong suit. He needs an honest pace to run at and he'll grind them into the ground. He'll lose to the likes of Haynesfield and Regal Ransom when he doesn't get that.

Plus, you're making it sound like slow paced horses have no chance on the dirt. Did you actually see Dakota Phone's entire race?

cj · 11-08-2010, 09:46 AM

As for Blame, he has won quite a few races where the pace was slower than average. He did it in the Foster and he did it in the Woodward, and also the Curlin Stakes when he was 3. This is actually the first time he was in a race with a hot pace and he adapted quite nicely.

Are you saying master horseman John Shirreffs didn't train his horse for a dirt race? How could he make such a gaff? It isn't like anyone with a pulse didn't know the pace would be MUCH quicker.

Charlie, horses are rarely ever speeding up at the end of a dirt race, they are slowing down less than the others. Even horses with trouble, sure they get back to speed, but they still aren't going faster than before the trouble. About the only time horses aren't slowing down at the finish is when they are running against massively outclassed horses and expend little energy to keep up early.

Like I said, a slower pace will not help a closer on dirt. It makes no sense. Just like going faster early does not help a speed horse. It makes no sense either, despite some trying to tell us that is what Quality Road should do.

cj · 11-08-2010, 09:47 AM

One other thing...just because a horse can run a certain pace at 4 does not mean the horse can do the same thing at 6. Check out what happened to Silver Charm as he aged. It happens to the best of them if they race long enough. They can still be very good, but they lose a little zip.

gm10 · 11-08-2010, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

As for Blame, he has won quite a few races where the pace was slower than average. He did it in the Foster and he did it in the Woodward, and also the Curlin Stakes when he was 3. This is actually the first time he was in a race with a hot pace and he adapted quite nicely.

Are you saying master horseman John Shirreffs didn't train his horse for a dirt race? How could he make such a gaff? It isn't like anyone with a pulse didn't know the pace would be MUCH quicker.

Charlie, horses are rarely ever speeding up at the end of a dirt race, they are slowing down less than the others. Even horses with trouble, sure they get back to speed, but they still aren't going faster than before the trouble. About the only time horses aren't slowing down at the finish is when they are running against massively outclassed horses and expend little energy to keep up early.

Like I said, a slower pace will not help a closer on dirt. It makes no sense. Just like going faster early does not help a speed horse. It makes no sense either, despite some trying to tell us that is what Quality Road should do.

He also failed to catch two moderate front runners. The label 'versatile' is not the best in this context.

Did Sheriffs mess up? It's a thin line, isn't it. He was a nose away from total triumph, just like some other people were one nose away from a gigantic egg on their face. It's not an excuse of course, her campaign was chosen by design.

I don't understand why you keep making such sweeping statements about racing on dirt. Yes, the races have a tendency to unfold as you describe, but you must be aware that is far from a general truth.

By the way, here are the sectionals of the top 4 in the Classic. Do I detect two horse who accelerated in the final 2F?

Code:

    BLAME		24.42	24.47	23.74	24.69	24.96		122.28
    ZENYATTA	25.96	23.7	23.8	24.64	24.2		122.3
    FLY DOWN	24.76	24.56	23.72	25.05	24.79		122.88
    LUCKY		24.34	24.47	23.73	24.75	25.64		122.93

cj · 11-08-2010, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gm10

I don't understand why you keep making such sweeping statements about racing on dirt. Yes, the races have a tendency to unfold as you describe, but you must be aware that is far from a general truth.

Actually, it is a general truth. I've never said it was specific to every race. It was in the Classic though. If you guys want to think closers will do better on dirt with a slower pace, have at it. Like I said, I have two more kids to put through college.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gm10

By the way, here are the sectionals of the top 4 in the Classic. Do I detect two horse who accelerated in the final 2F?

Code:

  BLAME		24.42	24.47	23.74	24.69	24.96		122.28
  ZENYATTA	25.96	23.7	23.8	24.64	24.2		122.3
  FLY DOWN	24.76	24.56	23.72	25.05	24.79		122.88
  LUCKY		24.34	24.47	23.73	24.75	25.64		122.93

Well, no, not really. The prior quarter was run on the turn, the last on a straight, but you know that. Also, both of them had run faster at the earlier calls. But you know all this already, you are just trying to look clever.

Feel free to go dig up more opinions where I was wrong. I can handle it, I never claimed to be right all the time. Funny, you never seem to mention those where I was right. Keeping betting Vineyard Haven though.

gm10 · 11-08-2010, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Actually, it is a general truth. I've never said it was specific to every race. It was in the Classic though. If you guys want to think closers will do better on dirt with a slower pace, have at it. Like I said, I have two more kids to put through college.

Well, no, not really. The prior quarter was run on the turn, the last on a straight, but you know that. Also, both of them had run faster at the earlier calls. But you know all this already, you are just trying to look clever.

Feel free to go dig up more opinions where I was wrong. I can handle it, I never claimed to be right all the time. Funny, you never seem to mention those where I was right. Keeping betting Vineyard Haven though.

You are taking this the wrong way. I'm just arguing that dirt races are not as uniformly decided as you are claiming here. Yes Zenyatta fell short by a head, but that doesn't mean we should completely fall back on good old fashioned theories that don't really work for her, or the other surfaces in America in general. There is no grand vindication of traditional views here, hence my nagging.

gm10 · 11-08-2010, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Well, no, not really. The prior quarter was run on the turn, the last on a straight, but you know that. Also, both of them had run faster at the earlier calls. But you know all this already, you are just trying to look clever.

What is acceleration if not going at a faster speed than before??