Robotic wagering -- something else bettors have to deal with

[lamboguy]

what i really don't understand is how can all these big computer guys pile into pools so small now?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Getting 2/1 on a legit 3/5 shot is the only way you can make money betting the ponies. It is math thing. If you can't find those kind of bets, you are going to be a long term loser who is constantly reloading his bankroll. When I see 2/1 on a horse I like, I expect the odds to drop, but not to 3/5. Do you have any idea how much money it takes to drop a horse going off at 2/1 in its last flash before the gates to become a 3/5 shot as they are racing down the backstretch? It takes far too much money to cause that kind of drop for the money to becoming from the barn. It has be coming from some big betting operation. If you expect other bettors to sit idly bye and take it, you are wrong. One way you can get decent odds on a horse that that big operation is going to dump on is canceling part of your bet at the last second. You might now get even money on a horse that otherwise would gone off at 3/5. Sometimes you have to fight fire with fire. Of course I don't employ the canceled bet because I am way too small a bettor. But I don't want to see it outlawed either. I think in this day and age of the computer guys balancing the pools so only the people with high rebates and those very few with very special handicapping insight can make money, every tool that allows someone to eek out a few bucks in their war with the computer boys should be allowed. I put the people who don't want bet canceling in the same boat as people who don't want "check and raising" in poker. As far as I am concerned, it is a legit use of game theory in horse racing.

To clarify, I used 2-1 to 3-5 as an example, I agree with you that an odds swing that drastic doesn't happen too often.

[Dave Schwartz]

what i really don't understand is how can all these big computer guys pile into pools so small now?

Lambo, I completely agree.

I cannot say how I have this number (or prove that it is true) but my calculation indicates that at the highest rebate tracks a little over 30% of the pool is the result of 6 players.

[Fox]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Lambo, I completely agree.

I cannot say how I have this number (or prove that it is true) but my calculation indicates that at the highest rebate tracks a little over 30% of the pool is the result of 6 players.

Are all 6 players winners at those tracks from what you know?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Lambo, I completely agree.

I cannot say how I have this number (or prove that it is true) but my calculation indicates that at the highest rebate tracks a little over 30% of the pool is the result of 6 players.

without their tote advantages, there are plenty of races where their computer models go haywire as well. the maiden turf races and off tracks come to mind. also the races where someone goes in a pool and belts down a favorite to 1-9 throughout the whole wagering sequence. that bet is done strictly to coax a computer model into betting something else. most of those horses are legitimate 1-5's that the computer models make 2-5 or more.

with the large loss of handle lately, i suspect that some of these computer outfits have packed up their bags and went on to greener pastures like European and far east pools and will remain there until they wreck those games like they have done here.

[Stillriledup]

Bill Benter didnt become Bill Benter by standing at a SAM machine with a big voucher betting the old fashioned way. He's and others like him (on smaller scales of course) are playing a completely different game than most of us. This is why tracks need to give the old fashioned player a way to go head to head against only players who are betting the same way as them.

You're not going to beat Benter or CRW players by standing at the SAM machine, betting verbally w live teller, etc but if the only way a player can get into a pool is to bet the old fashioned way, you wouldn't be getting beat by people who are experts at technology, which is what's happening now.

No reason to not have separate pools on the same race win pool A, win pool B, this way you can say the pool A is the CRW pool and pool B is not, would be amazing case study to see different prices on the same races. People would see that things normally pay less in the CRW pool which would mean it wouldn't take long for most smart bettors to avoid that pool altogether.

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Bill Benter didnt become Bill Benter by standing at a SAM machine with a big voucher betting the old fashioned way. He's and others like him (on smaller scales of course) are playing a completely different game than most of us. This is why tracks need to give the old fashioned player a way to go head to head against only players who are betting the same way as them.

You're not going to beat Benter or CRW players by standing at the SAM machine, betting verbally w live teller, etc but if the only way a player can get into a pool is to bet the old fashioned way, you wouldn't be getting beat by people who are experts at technology, which is what's happening now.

No reason to not have separate pools on the same race win pool A, win pool B, this way you can say the pool A is the CRW pool and pool B is not, would be amazing case study to see different prices on the same races. People would see that things normally pay less in the CRW pool which would mean it wouldn't take long for most smart bettors to avoid that pool altogether.

T^hen play the same game.. everyone complaining about this. why not just join in.. if its so easy.. do the same thing and work the bankroll up till you are wealthy . Start your own CRW crew.. the more $$ you pump thru im sure u can get bigger rebates ........ Here's my point you still get paid when you pick the winner.. handicap better.. no one in particular but sometimes after reading things you would think no one wins betting horses Ever!

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

T^hen play the same game.. everyone complaining about this. why not just join in.. if its so easy.. do the same thing and work the bankroll up till you are wealthy . Start your own CRW crew.. the more $$ you pump thru im sure u can get bigger rebates ........ Here's my point you still get paid when you pick the winner.. handicap better.. no one in particular but sometimes after reading things you would think no one wins betting horses Ever!

I'm of the camp that everyone has the same shot to be a CRW whale, and the system is fair for the most part, its just not feasible for most people who aren't pro bettors to risk that kind of money or pay for someone to get that setup for them. Its easier just to give people the option to bet like everyone else. Even if people had the ability to 'be like Benter' why would they want to if they can get better prices in the non crw pool?

[davew]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I don't have a problem with canceled wagers. It is about the only tool the bettor has to fight the people who dump large bets in last few seconds driving down the odds. A bet that is going to be canceled on horse either stops those bets or at least lessens them to point where the guy who cancels the bets get something resembling decent odds. Sure the average bettor might lose a bet now then, but is not as much of problem to me as the very late flow of a large amount of cash on a horse I bet, driving down the odds well below profitability. I might add the canceled bet is still pretty rare. The late crushing of the odds by a large bet must happen at least several hundred times more often.

Would you have a problem if you liked 2 horses equally and one was 3/5 and the other 6/1. You bet the 6/1 and the guy who bet massive amounts on the 3/5 cancels 90% of their bet just before the off. Your 6/1 bet becomes a 4/5 and his 3/5 bet becomes a 4/1.

[ReplayRandall]

Here is the reality of race wagering NOW and the immediate future----you have six options(best to worst):

1. Play online with rebates- can lower the vig to 10% or less

2. Play tournaments- vig can be as low as 10%

3. Play at the track with a rewards card- saves on admission, programs, food, parking, small cash back, etc....

4. Play online/at track, with little or no rebate/rewards

5. Wait for Fixed odds exchanges in US via Betfair...etal, before playing again

6. QUIT

Which option is your present reality? What options are the tracks, (ie-Stronach), forcing upon us or are trying to take away?

[Fox]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

No reason to not have separate pools on the same race win pool A, win pool B, this way you can say the pool A is the CRW pool and pool B is not, would be amazing case study to see different prices on the same races. People would see that things normally pay less in the CRW pool which would mean it wouldn't take long for most smart bettors to avoid that pool altogether.

Yeah......that sounds practical.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Bill Benter didnt become Bill Benter by standing at a SAM machine with a big voucher betting the old fashioned way. He's and others like him (on smaller scales of course) are playing a completely different game than most of us. This is why tracks need to give the old fashioned player a way to go head to head against only players who are betting the same way as them.

You're not going to beat Benter or CRW players by standing at the SAM machine, betting verbally w live teller, etc but if the only way a player can get into a pool is to bet the old fashioned way, you wouldn't be getting beat by people who are experts at technology, which is what's happening now.

No reason to not have separate pools on the same race win pool A, win pool B, this way you can say the pool A is the CRW pool and pool B is not, would be amazing case study to see different prices on the same races. People would see that things normally pay less in the CRW pool which would mean it wouldn't take long for most smart bettors to avoid that pool altogether.

How do you plan to keep the mega-bettors out of pool B?

The mutuel pools are in a perpetual free-fall already, SRU. Do you really think that the tracks would ever consider reducing these pools even further...by splitting them in two groups?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How do you plan to keep the mega-bettors out of pool B?

The mutuel pools are in a perpetual free-fall already, SRU. Do you really think that that tracks would ever consider reducing these pools even further...by splitting them in two groups?

I'm not trying to keep anyone out of any pool, you just can't use CRW to wager in pool B.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Fox

Yeah......that sounds practical.

The more practical way would to either ban CRW like Oaklawn does, or, make it available to any bettor who wants it.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I'm not trying to keep anyone out of any pool, you just can't use CRW to wager in pool B.

Let's just say for some wild reason the tracks implement your suggestion. How fast do you think the game would collapse without that CRW money? How fast do you think the take-out would be raised, after they've already raised it to implement your idea?.......It's an IMPOSSIBILITY, period. Why do you think I posted what the true reality and the options are for the player, back in post-40?....Those are the only real POSSIBILITIES that are left.....Oaklawn is only a temporary trial, their handle will suffer proportionately.