Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by hcap

Of all places a link from Drudge.....to:

Coronavirus cases are on the rise across the South
https://www.axios.com/new-coronaviru...b80bbbecf.html

Several Southern states are seeing a rise in new coronavirus cases, moving them further away from an important target for safely reopening parts of their economies.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's reopening guidelines call for a consistent decline in new cases before proceeding with the process — and some states are proceeding even without clearing that threshold.

Between the lines: The total number of cases is an important piece of the puzzle — but it's only one piece.

The number of new cases will rise as a state performs more testing, so looking at this metric in isolation can give the false impression of a worsening outbreak.

Yes, but: Some of the states whose new cases are increasing in this analysis — including Arkansas, North Carolina and North Dakota — also fare poorly in a more holistic analysis that also accounts for other metrics.

Where it stands: South Dakota has made the most progress over the past week, cutting its new cases by over half.

North Carolina and North Dakota bring up the rear, with spikes in new cases of around 40%.

This analysis uses a seven-day average, to minimize the distortions of reporting delays or similar technical issues, and compares that average to the average from the week before.

The bottom line: No one measurement tells the whole story, and there are signs that most of the country is moving in the right direction.

But there's a big difference between moving in the right direction and being out of the woods, and there will be no victory over the coronavirus without a sustained, documented decline in the number of new cases.

I think any rational person expects a rise in cases when things reopen. Didn't you? Seriously. Didn't you?

[hcap]

Originally Posted by tucker6

I think any rational person expects a rise in cases when things reopen. Didn't you? Seriously. Didn't you?

Your inept one is dismissing it along with the rational expectation of many epidemiologists of a second wave.

Further evidence "flattening the curve reduces infectiousness and deaths.....

Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19Growth Rate.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pd...aff.2020.00608

ABSTRACT: State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April of 2020 to contain the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These included large event bans,school closures, closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas, and shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs). We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19cases across US counties between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. An event-study design allowed each policy’s impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after1–5 days, 6.8 after 6–10 days, 8.2 after 11–15 days, and 9.1 after 16–20days.

Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant,these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs(10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any ofthe four measures (35 million). Our paper illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing relevant information to strategies for restarting economic activity.
..............................................

We should keep this in mind for the second wave

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by hcap

Your inept one is dismissing it along with the rational expectation of many epidemiologists of a second wave.

Further evidence "flattening the curve reduces infectiousness and deaths.....

Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19Growth Rate.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pd...aff.2020.00608

ABSTRACT: State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April of 2020 to contain the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These included large event bans,school closures, closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas, and shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs). We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19cases across US counties between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. An event-study design allowed each policy’s impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after1–5 days, 6.8 after 6–10 days, 8.2 after 11–15 days, and 9.1 after 16–20days.

Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant,these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs(10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any ofthe four measures (35 million). Our paper illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing relevant information to strategies for restarting economic activity.
..............................................

We should keep this in mind for the second wave

When you're out of a job and your kids are hungry, you're not thinking about any second wave. You're in survival mode. You keep posting irrelevant models and papers that do NOT represent real life. At all. It's like the study years ago that claimed that saccharin was cancer causing. Yeah it could, if someone drank 24 Coke's a day for five years. True but irrelevant. Just like your study. May be true but irrelevant.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by tucker6

When you're out of a job and your kids are hungry, you're not thinking about any second wave. You're in survival mode. You keep posting irrelevant models and papers that do NOT represent real life. At all. It's like the study years ago that claimed that saccharin was cancer causing. Yeah it could, if someone drank 24 Coke's a day for five years. True but irrelevant. Just like your study. May be true but irrelevant.

People will back to work but prolly aren’t too happy about it.

Allan

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

People will back to work but prolly aren’t too happy about it.

Allan

Spoken like a man who wasn't laid off or is on a pension.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap

Or have a Brazil type nut leading your so-called "recovery"

Face it Tom it ain't over because that nut cheers you up with happy talk saying it is.

Just pass the Lysol, ultraviolet light and hydroxychloroquine
.

I'll just wait for the first batch of the possible vaccine - to be ready in October......Ironic, it used to be the dems who pulled off the October Surprise.....not this year, perhaps!

Trump - out in Michigan, celebrating American Exceptionalism as FORD converts from making cars to making ventilators, keeping people working. Showing we can not only bring jobs back home,we can adapt to new ones, just as did in WWII when needed.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden has been asked to star in a remake of the movie Groundhogs Day, seeing how if he comes out his basement and sees anyone, he goes right back in.

One of his staffers said he would come out when it was safe.

Not very presidential.....it is NEVER safe out here - it the REAL world.

[davew]

Originally Posted by tucker6

I think any rational person expects a rise in cases when things reopen. Didn't you? Seriously. Didn't you?

and as 5 times as many tests are being taken, more will be found

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Spoken like a man who wasn't laid off or is on a pension.

He goes into NYC every day to work.

But you can ask him again.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by tucker6

I think any rational person expects a rise in cases when things reopen. Didn't you? Seriously. Didn't you?

I expected it.

I was just hoping the spikes were not going to be substantial.

Like not caseloads rising 750% and 1000% like in Crawford County IA and Colfax County in Neb., or even doubling, like in Montgomery, AL.

Montgomery AL has 3 hospitals and they have put out the SOS today: their city’s health care system has “maxed out”. No ICU beds. “Right now, if you’re from Montgomery, and you need an ICU bed, you’re in trouble,” Mayor Reed said.

I think they are keeping an eye on SE Florida, Houston (esp. Harris county), Dallas and all of Alabama right now.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

Of all places a link from Drudge.....to:

Coronavirus cases are on the rise across the South
https://www.axios.com/new-coronaviru...b80bbbecf.html

Several Southern states are seeing a rise in new coronavirus cases, moving them further away from an important target for safely reopening parts of their economies.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's reopening guidelines call for a consistent decline in new cases before proceeding with the process — and some states are proceeding even without clearing that threshold.

Between the lines: The total number of cases is an important piece of the puzzle — but it's only one piece.

The number of new cases will rise as a state performs more testing, so looking at this metric in isolation can give the false impression of a worsening outbreak.

Yes, but: Some of the states whose new cases are increasing in this analysis — including Arkansas, North Carolina and North Dakota — also fare poorly in a more holistic analysis that also accounts for other metrics.

Where it stands: South Dakota has made the most progress over the past week, cutting its new cases by over half.

North Carolina and North Dakota bring up the rear, with spikes in new cases of around 40%.

This analysis uses a seven-day average, to minimize the distortions of reporting delays or similar technical issues, and compares that average to the average from the week before.

The bottom line: No one measurement tells the whole story, and there are signs that most of the country is moving in the right direction.

But there's a big difference between moving in the right direction and being out of the woods, and there will be no victory over the coronavirus without a sustained, documented decline in the number of new cases.

I told you two+ months ago that DRUDGE was now YOUR KIND OF WEBSITE!

Nothing but FEAR LINKS posted...tons and tons of SCARY COVID-19 news links...you'll LOVE IT THERE now...

[incoming]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I expected it.

I was just hoping the spikes were not going to be substantial.

Like not caseloads rising 750% and 1000% like in Crawford County IA and Colfax County in Neb., or even doubling, like in Montgomery, AL.

Montgomery AL has 3 hospitals and they have put out the SOS today: their city’s health care system has “maxed out”. No ICU beds. “Right now, if you’re from Montgomery, and you need an ICU bed, you’re in trouble,” Mayor Reed said.

I think they are keeping an eye on SE Florida, Houston (esp. Harris county), Dallas and all of Alabama right now.

The cure for your disease....TDS is beginning to take shape. America is starting to reopen again and you are trying to spread your propaganda to prevent this from happening. WOW!!! One of the oldest demorats strongest talking points..... ending prosperity.

The TRUMP TRAIN is starting the long hard pull..... your cure is just around the corner. The Stable Genius has once again outsmarted the demorats. Of course, we expect to listen to all of the ruthless rhetoric and false allegations until election day. A continuation of the last 4 years.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I told you two+ months ago that DRUDGE was now YOUR KIND OF WEBSITE!

Nothing but FEAR LINKS posted...tons and tons of SCARY COVID-19 news links...you'll LOVE IT THERE now...

Let's see? Versus all your failed amateur hour non-expert sources, and absurd videos, with illiterate clowns making fun of the severity of the pandemic?

95,087 U.S. fatalities in less than 3 months.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

Let's see? Versus all your failed amateur hour non-expert sources, and absurd videos, with illiterate clowns making fun of the severity of the pandemic?

95,087 U.S. fatalities in less than 3 months.

Less than 3 months?

I see your data is as faulty as ever.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Less than 3 months?

I see your data is as faulty as ever.

Firfst death in the US., Feb 29th.

March,
April,
May
--------------
3 months

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by hcap

Firfst death in the US., Feb 29th.

March,
April,
May
--------------
3 months

Cherry picking data to fit your argument. You gotta count February unless you are arguing that everyone died without protracted illness starting 2/29.