Odds Drop

[cj's dad]

I have been off from work for a few weeks now due to a slight injury and have been watching TVG/HRTV more than usual.

It seems that on EVERY SINGLE RACE where a favorite or second choice breaks on the lead in a 5-6 f. race that the odds DROP. If a 20-1 shot breaks in front, no significant change can be detected. Today at, I believe it was PP,
a 3-1 broke out by 2 lengths and within the next posting of race order, had dropped to 9/5. This s--t has got to stop. There is obviously some shenanigans going on. If not, why would the odds (as the late money rolls in) occasionally not go up on a front-runner???

I know this topic has been discussed many times, but when is something actually going to be done to remedy this obviously questionable situation ??

[Bison]

This has been going on for quite some time. The company line seems to be that the late money pours in and the odds go down. You're right though, when a 20/1 shot goes out there nothing happens, because it's just false speed, and more than likely going to quit.

It seems that these late bettors always get it right.

[Bruddah]

It's just another window for greed by the tracks. The more money they let into the pools, the more money they make. It's true they could care less who wins, but they do care how much enter the pools. That's why they don't put a mandatory stop wager 10 seconds or so before the last horse enters the gate.

With todays technology, this problem can and should be solved. The tracks don't give a rats ass about pool or Industry integrity. They know every handicapper would like to wait as late as possible to wager. Especially if they can gain an edge in winning. They only care about the + - 20% they receive on additional late betting. You can be assured the Whales know exactly how long after the gates close they can place bets electronically, or at the track.

It's always good to know if your horse doesn't have trouble coming out of the gates. Many times my horse was the best before the gates open, only to lose the race coming out of the gate.

The only segment affected by this, are the bettors and that segment has always been the dirt under "Blue Bloods" dirty finger nails.

[Imriledup]

I wonder if its possible that the person who is in charge of closing pools has an elaborate system with another person that goes something like this. They pick out a race here and there and person who's in cahoots with the person in charge of closing the pools tells their friend that on race 7 at their hometown track, exactly 15 seconds after the horses spring from the gate, he's going to reopen the pools for 3 seconds and then shut them again. That way, his friend can load in a huge voucher (that happens to be right in front of a tv) and punch a nice win bet on whoever is on the lead. They won't always win, but the edge there is a long term winning one for sure. I don't know if the pools can be reopened after they are shut, but, who the heck knows, i'd believe anything at this point.

There is either money coming in after the start, or there is big money being cancelled on many other horses who don't break well (with the leader never getting refunded). Leader isn't necessarily taking money, but refunds by many different people who have access to the 7 second cancel that tellers are permitted are taking advantage and cancelling tickets on horses who don't break out of the gate well.

[lamboguy]

i promise you one thing, if this persists much longer there will be no horseracing game.

i have spoken to many all over the country in various tote rooms at most of the racetracks. for the most part they all know what's going on. so my next question is alway's why don't you do anything about it? the most common answer i get is that whole system has become obsolete. the cost to replace it would be about $200 million.

the very same problem that has racing coming apart at the seems has occured on the nasdaq. they had to spend the money to fix it because they recognized that their game would be over if it doesn't get fixed. the handle on the stock exchange had dropped as well as in horseracing.

in racing we have the tracknet that has taken over the game. it seems like all they want to do is burry the racing industry and replace it with slot machine's.

probably the best hope we have for the racing game is the recent aquisition of TVG by BETFAIR. they seem to know what's going on all over the world. they are no dummies, they see a market in the united states that is falling flat on its face while other markets throughout the world are increasing in the face of fallling economy's. they made quite a sizeable investment in the racing game in the united states. other foreign entities are trying to enter this market as well.

to sum this all up is that the guys running the game now in this country are only the problem. when and only when they get replaced by sound people with good business sense can we see a drastic change for the better of all concerned in this sport.

[Imriledup]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i promise you one thing, if this persists much longer there will be no horseracing game.

i have spoken to many all over the country in various tote rooms at most of the racetracks. for the most part they all know what's going on. so my next question is alway's why don't you do anything about it? the most common answer i get is that whole system has become obsolete. the cost to replace it would be about $200 million.

the very same problem that has racing coming apart at the seems has occured on the nasdaq. they had to spend the money to fix it because they recognized that their game would be over if it doesn't get fixed. the handle on the stock exchange had dropped as well as in horseracing.

in racing we have the tracknet that has taken over the game. it seems like all they want to do is burry the racing industry and replace it with slot machine's.

probably the best hope we have for the racing game is the recent aquisition of TVG by BETFAIR. they seem to know what's going on all over the world. they are no dummies, they see a market in the united states that is falling flat on its face while other markets throughout the world are increasing in the face of fallling economy's. they made quite a sizeable investment in the racing game in the united states. other foreign entities are trying to enter this market as well.

to sum this all up is that the guys running the game now in this country are only the problem. when and only when they get replaced by sound people with good business sense can we see a drastic change for the better of all concerned in this sport.

Super post. Echo you 100%.

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by Bruddah

You can be assured the Whales know exactly how long after the gates close they can place bets electronically, or at the track.

Then why wouldn't the average bettor be ablee to guage that as well?

There has to be something funny going on.

[Imriledup]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

Then why wouldn't the average bettor be ablee to guage that as well?

There has to be something funny going on.

I agree. Something funny is going on. If it was all on the up and up, speed horses who break on top in the first few jumps would go UP in price once in a while. They never go up. The horse who breaks on top...especially if he 'beats the gate' always goes down (or stays the same) and never goes up.

[arkansasman]

Originally Posted by cj's dad

I have been off from work for a few weeks now due to a slight injury and have been watching TVG/HRTV more than usual.

It seems that on EVERY SINGLE RACE where a favorite or second choice breaks on the lead in a 5-6 f. race that the odds DROP. If a 20-1 shot breaks in front, no significant change can be detected. Today at, I believe it was PP,
a 3-1 broke out by 2 lengths and within the next posting of race order, had dropped to 9/5. This s--t has got to stop. There is obviously some shenanigans going on. If not, why would the odds (as the late money rolls in) occasionally not go up on a front-runner???

I know this topic has been discussed many times, but when is something actually going to be done to remedy this obviously questionable situation ??

I hope I can explain this correctly. I really do not think past posting is going on. There are exceptions i.e. Penn. I have a logit model that is similar to what the whales use. Most advantage bets are in the lower odds range - not in the longshot range. If there is an advantage bet on a longshot, the dividend is not affected, because whale bets are pool size dependent and longshots have very little money bet on them. So, to protect their advantage on longshots, there is very little money bet.

[lamboguy]

i want to clarify something here. first of all the late betting is not immune to just the win pool. a good computer hacker can get inside the system and punch himself out a big paying trifecta or super and change the time that the ticket gets punched. these things you don't see right infront of your eyes. of course this is nothing new. about 40 years ago, before they had these computerized system's, i went to the taunton dog track with one of joe lynsey's reletives. we walked into his office and he had his own ticket punching machine,and right in front of my eyes he punched out a winning $2 ticket of the race that just crossed the wire. he gave us the ticket and told us to buy an ice cream and a hot dog

[arkansasman]

Originally Posted by arkansasman

I hope I can explain this correctly. I really do not think past posting is going on. There are exceptions i.e. Penn. I have a logit model that is similar to what the whales use. Most advantage bets are in the lower odds range - not in the longshot range. If there is an advantage bet on a longshot, the dividend is not affected, because whale bets are pool size dependent and longshots have very little money bet on them. So, to protect their advantage on longshots, there is very little money bet.

I accidently hit the enter button and the above posted before I was through. So here is the edit.

I hope I can explain this correctly. I really do not think past posting is going on. There are exceptions, but they are not the norm. I have a logit model that is similar to what the whales use. This model is geared toward early speed or close up pace. Most advantage bets are in the lower odds range - not in the longshot range. If there is an advantage bet on a longshot, the dividend is not affected by much, because whale bets are pool size dependent and longshots have very little money bet on them. So, to protect their advantage on longshots, there is very little money bet.

I can tell you I expect horses that are favorites that my model is showing an advantage on - will go even lower after the final money comes in. It is a fact of life. You just have to account for this. I know this does not sound good, but it is what it is.

The bigger the advantage - obviously the more the drop.

Example - In race 7 last night at MNR, at post time the 2 (Jaded View) was a huge advantage bet and was going to pay $5.60. My model said to bet on Jaded View.

When the final odds came in Jaded View paid $3.80 and my model was still showing it an advantage bet even at this dividend.

I see this all the time.

[arkansasman]

In the 9th race at MNR last night, the second favorite at Post time was Kalorama Moon, who was going to pay $7.00. She went to the lead and faded to finish 3rd and was not an advantage horse. If she had won, she would have paid $7.80.

One of the advantage horses was Moonlight Dreamer, who finished 2nd. At post time, this horse was going to pay $8.00. She dropped after the final money came in and would have paid $6.60 had she won.

The winner was an advantage horse in my model and actually drifted up a little. At post time, she was going to pay $4.80 and ended up paying $5.00.

I don't know if my posts on odds drop have helped explain this or confused some people.

John

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by arkansasman

In the 9th race at MNR last night, the second favorite at Post time was Kalorama Moon, who was going to pay $7.00. She went to the lead and faded to finish 3rd and was not an advantage horse. If she had won, she would have paid $7.80.

One of the advantage horses was Moonlight Dreamer, who finished 2nd. At post time, this horse was going to pay $8.00. She dropped after the final money came in and would have paid $6.60 had she won.

The winner was an advantage horse in my model and actually drifted up a little. At post time, she was going to pay $4.80 and ended up paying $5.00.

I don't know if my posts on odds drop have helped explain this or confused some people.

John

that seems to explain everything! its the old advantage horses that make the odds change how stupid of me.

even if you are right, which i seriously doubt, wouldn't the game be alot better off without the thought that the customers were getting screwed? would it be that tough to regulate the times that the bets go into the pool? and are you telling me that you have special software that figures out "the advantage horese", not batch betting software that supposedly takes care of poor odds on horses?

i was a former past poster. 20 years ago i bet horses in new york that broke on top 15 seconds intothe race. if i didn't like the way the horse was going i had another 10 seconds to cancel my bet. i did this for about 2 years until the new york post wrote an article about me changing the odds on a hores from 60-1 to pay 12.00. 2 weeks later my host track shut betting off 2 minutes before each race. i moved my tack to different venue and took up quarter horse racing 10 seconds after the bell. this lasted a whole summer before i was stopped. i know of guys today doing the same thing in harness racing. but that is not even the brunt of the problem it is small tip in the iceberg. there are computer hacker's that can take "advantage horses" to even better levels. they can not only bet well after the race starts, but actually change the times that the computer software assign's to the actual bet. now that is a real "advantage horse".

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

that seems to explain everything! its the old advantage horses that make the odds change how stupid of me.

even if you are right, which i seriously doubt, wouldn't the game be alot better off without the thought that the customers were getting screwed?

Is there really any reason why you had to be a sarcastic SOB to this poster?

This poster didn't insult you...he presented a logical argument based upon his observations and his way of doing things. And this is how you come back at him in your first few sentences?

[mountainman]

No right-minded player could help but be puzzled by how frequently it seems the odds drop on contenders that control the early lead. But aren't conspiracy theorists putting the cart before the horse ? I have yet to hear of a definitive study-perhaps matching price-points and pace scenarios with the final tote flip- that confirms prevalent suspicions. Maybe frontrunners simply TEND to take late money, or it could be that winning closers drop during the race as well. Late odds drops should be THOROUGHLY-and creatively-researched before accusations are hurled.