Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The testing/case relationship is partly a chicken and egg issue.

Only a complete fool (and we know who I am talking about) would deny that we had massively more cases than we recorded back in Feb, Mar, and Apr. We simply didn't have the testing capacity to find and count them.

Now, we can test over a million people a day. So we can find a higher percentage of all the outstanding new cases that are out there.

That makes the raw case count from late winter and spring to now irrelevant.

Only the media (morons and people with a political agenda) and regular people that don't understand the issues are looking at those raw case numbers.

On the flip side, it's hard to know what percentage of the testing is simply more and better capacity coming on stream and how much is demand from more people that are feeling sick.

Most of the smartest people I know have stopped looking at case data completely. They are tracking hospitalizations and ICU. Those counts have issues also, but they are more accurate than cases. Also, no one should really care much how many people are positive if they aren't getting very sick. Otherwise we'd lock down the country every common cold season when millions of people have sore throats, running noses, and mild fevers.

Hospitalizations are rising again just like they did in Phase2 when it hit FL, TX, AZ, CA etc.. hard but it's still WAY off the peak. Now those Phase 2 states are off their peaks (as predicted) but new states and areas within some states with lower infection rates are rising rapidly.

You are forgetting hospitalizations lag new cases. And since around 1 in every 5 people who are infected with COVID-19 develop difficulty in breathing and require hospital care, hospitalizations will never show as great an increase or a one to one correspondence.

As happened previously. Smaller cycles within larger. This is not going away unless public health is taken seriously

Covid Tracking Project Total U.S.hospitalizations
US Historical Data
https://covidtracking.com/data/national


Oct 25, 2020 hospitalized 41,753

Jul 22, 2020 hospitalized 59,596

Apr 14, 2020 hospitalized 59,610

A few months ago Total U.S.hospitalizations reached April's peak

What is your point? Those "media morons" and me, are lying to you, or perhaps your political agenda is shewing tour objectivity?

[davew]

1 in 5 are hospitalized?


I thought you were a mathematical savant, not challenged.

or are you just referring to people over 80?

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by davew

1 in 5 are hospitalized?


I thought you were a mathematical savant, not challenged.

or are you just referring to people over 80?

His numbers also do not include the number of people who get covid without symptoms or testing. That's 10x the number found positive through testing.

[classhandicapper]

You are forgetting hospitalizations lag new cases.

It lags by a week or two, but it's massively more accurate than cases.

The real problem is that if a person goes into the hospital with a broken leg, appendicitis, kidney stones or anything else and they give him a Covid that comes up positive, he goes on the hospitalization list even if he's asymptomatic or not really sick enough to be in the hospital for Covid. The hospitals get more for money for Covid patients. So they have an incentive to find and report those cases over and above safety. But if you follow the trend instead of the actual numbers, that's good enough to let you know what's going on.

What is your point? Those "media morons" and me, are lying to you, or perhaps your political agenda is shewing tour objectivity?

My point is you never have any idea what you are talking about because you are reading mainstream sources that are incompetent and politically motivated.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It lags by a week or two, but it's massively more accurate than cases.

The real problem is that if a person goes into the hospital with a broken leg, appendicitis, kidney stones or anything else and they give him a Covid that comes up positive, he goes on the hospitalization list even if he's asymptomatic or not really sick enough to be in the hospital for Covid. The hospitals get more for money for Covid patients. So they have an incentive to find and report those cases over and above safety. But if you follow the trend instead of the actual numbers, that's good enough to let you know what's going on.


My point is you never have any idea what you are talking about because you are reading mainstream sources that are incompetent and politically motivated.

Who has no idea Mr Pizzagate?

Exactly what jackass Trump said. A half truth exaggerated to cast doubt on health care professionals and stupidly furthering Trumpite pandemic denial

Fact-check: Hospitals and COVID-19 payments
https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...D-19-payments/

It’s standard for Medicare to pay a hospital roughly three times as much for a patient who goes on a ventilator, as for one who doesn’t.

Medicare is paying a 20% add-on to its regular hospital payments for the treatment of COVID-19 victims. That’s a result of a federal stimulus law.

The claim’s suggestion is that the number of COVID-19 cases is being padded; but evidence indicates the cases are being undercounted.


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And as far as the increase in hospitilizations....


Covid-19 Live Updates: Some U.S. Hospitals Are Reaching Their Limits

The country has seen a 40 percent increase in the past month in the number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10...avirus-updates

...With the coronavirus spreading out of control in many parts of the United States and daily case counts setting records, health experts say it is only a matter of time before hospitals start to reach the breaking point.

In some places, it is already happening.

There are more than 41,000 Covid-19 patients hospitalized in the United States, a 40 percent rise in the past month. And unlike during the earlier months of the pandemic, more of those patients are being cared for not in metropolitan regions but in more sparsely populated parts of the country, where the medical infrastructure is less robust.

[hcap]

U.S.Metrics showing tests, and "lag" of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
As the weather brings more indoors, expect an acceleration.

[hcap]

Trump claims the worsening U.S. coronavirus outbreak is a ‘Fake News Media Conspiracy’ even as hospitalizations rise
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/coro...ions-rise.html

President Donald Trump claimed Monday that the worsening coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. is a “Fake News Media Conspiracy.”

Trump has repeatedly downplayed the virus and has insisted that the U.S. has more cases than any other country only because the nation tests more people.

Public health officials and infectious disease experts dispute that claim, saying the rate of tests that are positive and hospitalizations are on the rise in several states.

.................................................. .................

And you Trumpites love him. Go figure

[tucker6]

It was nice reading over the weekend that the democrat response to covid has increased opioid deaths by 50% and suicides by 70% above the historical averages. For you kids counting at home, that means 35,000 more drug deaths and 33,000 more suicide deaths. Mostly young and middle aged people as opposed to covid which afflicts the old and dying. So hats off to you Harry. You're still alive even if your children and grandchildren are not. What a great tradeoff that is. Let's kill those in their most productive life cycle stages to keep those nearing death alive for another one or so.

[46zilzal]

Countries ALL OVER THE FINITE GLOBE, cases are up and almost to capacity in acute care beds

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

Who has no idea Mr Pizzagate?

Shut up cuck.

[classhandicapper]

I'm starting to feel sorry for HCAP.

There's an obvious need for mental health intervention and probably medication.

You can't even have a conversation anymore.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm starting to feel sorry for HCAP.

There's an obvious need for mental health intervention and probably medication.

You can't even have a conversation anymore.

He's suffering from pandemic fatigue and he doesn't know it. This often is the precursor to pandemic suicide.

[classhandicapper]

Here's the US hospitalization data for those of you without mental health issues or political agendas.

https://covidtracking.com/data/national

There was a first peak in April centered in the northeast (NYC, Long Island, Westchester, and parts of NJ, MD, MA, CT etc..).

That subsided and there was a huge drop in hospitalizations.

Then there was second phase when cases started rising in large states not hit hard in Phase 1 like FL, CA, GA, AZ, and TX.

Those states peaked in July. Hospitalizations reached similar highs and then they started subsiding sharply again.

Now many of the new infections are in states in the midwest and north that didn't get hit hard in Phase 1 or Phase 2 and as Phase 2 subsides elsewhere. Call it Phase 3.

It's the same pattern everywhere in the world. The virus is moving around to new places that weren't hit as hard in earlier phases. It spikes in new locations and then it starts burning itself out a little as the infection rate hits 15%-20% and people are socially distancing, wearing masks. Cases continue growing in already hit areas, but at much slower rates.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm starting to feel sorry for HCAP.

There's an obvious need for mental health intervention and probably medication.

You can't even have a conversation anymore.

Agree.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by boxcar

He's suffering from pandemic fatigue and he doesn't know it. This often is the precursor to pandemic suicide.

I'm pretty sure it's some combination of pandemic fatigue, TDS, and other mental health issues, but he can't have a conversation on even the most basic facts and math without bombarding the forum with anti Trump stuff and things that either no one is disputing or that have already been discussed.