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Old 08-23-2020, 08:39 AM   #16
Spalding No!
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Your mistaking this horse as a speed horse. In his 1st 3 wins he was next to last, next to last and last after a 1/4 mile. Just a quick glance at all his pp's shows he was on the lead 3 times after a 1/4 mile. The other 10 races he was no where near the lead after a 1/4 mile.

Obviously he ran 3 of his best races on the lead, but outside of those 3 races he's never been quick enough to make the lead. Definitely more the horse than the jockey.
I wouldn't say he's not quick enough after the pace he set in the San Diego while establishing a clear lead over Maximum Security (who had some trouble entering the backstretch).

Espinoza clearly held the horse off the pace passing the stands the first time with his feet on the dashboard. He even took a hold going around the first turn. The horse was eager down the backstretch.

It didn't look too nefarious as perhaps it was the game plan to stalk based on concerns for distance limitations, but all it did was allow Maximum Security to waltz along once again on a relatively unpressured pace. The race really didn't reveal anything new about Maximum Security. Still based on earlier races he seems vulnerable with real pace pressure.

Unfortunately, Baffert also trains Improbable and Authentic who are probably the two most talented horses capable of making Maximum Security run early. Might be another merry-go-round BC Classic a la 2004, 2015, and 2017. Hopefully they'll run that Godolphin speed freak on the dirt after the Arc.
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Old 08-23-2020, 09:33 AM   #17
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Your mistaking this horse as a speed horse. In his 1st 3 wins he was next to last, next to last and last after a 1/4 mile. Just a quick glance at all his pp's shows he was on the lead 3 times after a 1/4 mile. The other 10 races he was no where near the lead after a 1/4 mile.

Obviously he ran 3 of his best races on the lead, but outside of those 3 races he's never been quick enough to make the lead. Definitely more the horse than the jockey.
not really a speed horse but a horse who clearly is about a alw level horse as a presser.
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Old 08-23-2020, 09:56 AM   #18
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I thought they were going to send Midcourt from the rail and try to wire.

They must have been very concerned about the 10F, but they weren't going to beat him giving him an easier trip than he had last time and then trying to close him down at a distance that was suspect for Midcourt to begin with.

To me, Maximum Security is one of those horses that makes his own good luck and trips. He has enough speed to get the lead and enough stamina to keep going, but if you are hell bent on taking it he can sit and still finish. IMO, it's not all an accident of good trips and weak fields that he keeps winning. He may not be as great as his resume looks, but at this point he deserves a lot of respect. He's very good.
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Old 08-23-2020, 10:54 AM   #19
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I wouldn't say he's not quick enough after the pace he set in the San Diego while establishing a clear lead over Maximum Security (who had some trouble entering the backstretch).

Espinoza clearly held the horse off the pace passing the stands the first time with his feet on the dashboard. He even took a hold going around the first turn. The horse was eager down the backstretch.

It didn't look too nefarious as perhaps it was the game plan to stalk based on concerns for distance limitations, but all it did was allow Maximum Security to waltz along once again on a relatively unpressured pace. The race really didn't reveal anything new about Maximum Security. Still based on earlier races he seems vulnerable with real pace pressure.

Unfortunately, Baffert also trains Improbable and Authentic who are probably the two most talented horses capable of making Maximum Security run early. Might be another merry-go-round BC Classic a la 2004, 2015, and 2017. Hopefully they'll run that Godolphin speed freak on the dirt after the Arc.
Authentic will never run in the Breeders Cup, at least not in the classic.
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Old 08-23-2020, 11:02 AM   #20
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Good on Max. He did what I hoped he'd do.
The horse I was a little surprised wasn't more forwardly placed early on was Higher Power. Seems like he has been in chase mode the last couple, instead of the stalking position I've gotten used to seeing since he moved to sadler (as esp at this distance).
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Old 08-23-2020, 11:41 AM   #21
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Authentic will never run in the Breeders Cup, at least not in the classic.
Who knows nowadays with the stud deals that are put together before horses can even validate their potential. They might throw up a Hail Mary to make good on some clause that nets the owner a couple extra millions.

At any rate, even with clear distance limitations (and sometimes even suspect form) we've seen horses like Fly So Free, French Deputy, Uncle Mo, and Old Trieste take their shot.
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Old 08-23-2020, 12:09 PM   #22
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Who knows nowadays with the stud deals that are put together before horses can even validate their potential. They might throw up a Hail Mary to make good on some clause that nets the owner a couple extra millions.

At any rate, even with clear distance limitations (and sometimes even suspect form) we've seen horses like Fly So Free, French Deputy, Uncle Mo, and Old Trieste take their shot.
While I dont think Authentic is cut out for 10 furlongs he has a lot of talent, if they let him get an easy uncontested lead with the thought that he will just come back to them its not that far fetched to see him get brave and be there at the wire.
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Old 08-23-2020, 01:57 PM   #23
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While I dont think Authentic is cut out for 10 furlongs he has a lot of talent, if they let him get an easy uncontested lead with the thought that he will just come back to them its not that far fetched to see him get brave and be there at the wire.
He's going to be an awesome entry in the Derby(as far as I know), for myracehorse.com , but I agree w/ the poster that said he's not pointed for the Classic.
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Old 08-23-2020, 02:00 PM   #24
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Maximum Security ran well. I'm surprised he didn't crush that field, given their form, and his ability and trip.

Where did the 's performance come from? Did he run a freak lifetime best, or was Maximum Security's performance a little less than the hype?

I couldn't tell from one live viewing.
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Old 08-23-2020, 02:05 PM   #25
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Good on Max. He did what I hoped he'd do.
The horse I was a little surprised wasn't more forwardly placed early on was Higher Power. Seems like he has been in chase mode the last couple, instead of the stalking position I've gotten used to seeing since he moved to sadler (as esp at this distance).
Just rewatched since NYRA had the replay. HP was up close, but not pressing the issue. I more expected him to be in the position that Sharp Samurai was in.
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Old 08-23-2020, 03:01 PM   #26
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Maximum Security ran well. I'm surprised he didn't crush that field, given their form, and his ability and trip.

Where did the 's performance come from? Did he run a freak lifetime best, or was Maximum Security's performance a little less than the hype?

I couldn't tell from one live viewing.
The last 2 times Sharp Samurai ran on dirt (back in 2017) he broke his maiden by 9 lengths and then ran mid-pack in a loaded 3yo allowance race that featured subsequent Grade 1 winners Battle of Midway and Vexatious, graded stakes horses Mr. Hinx and Irish Freedom, and the ill-fated Reach The World.

Maybe he's Cigar Lite.
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Old 08-23-2020, 05:31 PM   #27
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The last 2 times Sharp Samurai ran on dirt (back in 2017) he broke his maiden by 9 lengths and then ran mid-pack in a loaded 3yo allowance race that featured subsequent Grade 1 winners Battle of Midway and Vexatious, graded stakes horses Mr. Hinx and Irish Freedom, and the ill-fated Reach The World.

Maybe he's Cigar Lite.
I liked him a lot yesterday, obviously with Max the clear horse to beat, but he was the only other one I gave a chance on our TimeformUS podcast. It is exactly because of what you refer to above. I had a feeling he's as good or better on dirt.
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Old 08-23-2020, 06:23 PM   #28
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I thought they were going to send Midcourt from the rail and try to wire.

They must have been very concerned about the 10F, but they weren't going to beat him giving him an easier trip than he had last time and then trying to close him down at a distance that was suspect for Midcourt to begin with.

To me, Maximum Security is one of those horses that makes his own good luck and trips. He has enough speed to get the lead and enough stamina to keep going, but if you are hell bent on taking it he can sit and still finish. IMO, it's not all an accident of good trips and weak fields that he keeps winning. He may not be as great as his resume looks, but at this point he deserves a lot of respect. He's very good.
I agree with this. And handicappers often underestimate these types of horses.

I remember Andy Beyer's obituary of Affirmed. He recalled railing against him for easy trips, and he only later realized that was part of what made Affirmed so great- he was so tractable and had enough speed that Cauthen and Pincay could get him into the best position, and it wasn't an accident that his rivals kept on getting harder trips than Affirmed did.
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Old 08-23-2020, 06:25 PM   #29
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I liked him a lot yesterday, obviously with Max the clear horse to beat, but he was the only other one I gave a chance on our TimeformUS podcast. It is exactly because of what you refer to above. I had a feeling he's as good or better on dirt.
So what you are saying is, you had the exacta.
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Old 08-23-2020, 10:36 PM   #30
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I think some people just don't want to let this horse get out from under the cloud which, BTW, is none of its doing
Sounds right to me. Maybe because it can't be that some human made a mistake labeling him a 16k claimer to start with.

It's always the horse's fault. Right?
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