NYRA: Saratoga Race Course’s Summer Season Will Likely Occur Without Fans

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The rejection of science, with a virulent enough agent (not coronavirus), could kill us all

First of all.......I never said anything about rejecting science.
I was rejecting your ridiculous remark.
Secondly......In order to suit your means,you're trying to defend your statement that CV19 could kill everybody on the planet by citing an infectious disease that doesn't even exist.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Do you know how many of the 2,789 deaths in LA County (as reported in the LA Times article) occurred in nursing homes?


If it's like what we're seeing around the country, the number should be between 33% and 50% of the total but if you have the answer please share.

I don't know the validity, but an article at the Gateway Pundit indicated 39% of Covid19 deaths occurred at Nursing Homes.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

A great example of this is domestic air travel. It is completely "open". You are allowed to buy a ticket and go anywhere.

Yet airlines are getting killed and having to slash their routes. Because few people want to fly.

Your point fails to consider that airlines do not operate in a vacuum. They may be "open", but they are significantly impacted because other communities and events are "not open".

If you are opining that air travel will experience a longer-term reduction in some business because some people are going to refuse to fly because of the their perceived health risks, then I agree. Where we may differ is that I believe an even greater impact on the existing airline business is that a very high number of folks are unwilling to fly into areas which currently have significant lockdown issues, or, don't find the need to fly because the basis for their trip in the first place has or will have a high future probability of cancellation.

I purchased flights early this year for a race meet in July, and in the upcoming week I fully expect (against my 1% hope) the organizers to officially announce cancellation. Thus I will then be seeking a refund/credit for my previous purchases.

IMO most of the Airlines will rebound after we return to the relatively old normal way of life, provided it does not take too long to do so.

As to the original topic, I hope that Saratoga does race with fans, but I would currently bet against it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

You really think that horse race bettors are experts on herd immunity and scientists who study this stuff for decades are not?

YouTube

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by taxicab

First of all.......I never said anything about rejecting science.
I was rejecting your ridiculous remark.
Secondly......In order to suit your means,you're trying to defend your statement that CV19 could kill everybody on the planet by citing an infectious disease that doesn't even exist.

I am saying that the next virus that comes down the line may be worse, and I live in a country full of folks who think "science" is just another view that they can dismiss from a position of total ignorance.

And yes, that can kill us all if the bug is bad enough.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhckuhUxcgA

Apply that laugh to yourself and all your "flu" and "due process" posts PA.

I have been right all along on this. You haven't.

[classhandicapper]

1. Yesterday the country reported a significant increase in the number of people that have recovered from the virus. It was far and away the biggest daily jump of recoveries.

2. The trend for the number of people on the critical/serious condition list is slowly shrinking now for the first time.

3. The number of "active" cases shrunk for the very first time yesterday.

Trends in NY also remain favorable.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Apply that laugh to yourself and all your "flu" and "due process" posts PA.

I have been right all along on this. You haven't.

Went right over your head, as usual.

You probably think I posted that video clip because I disagree with the notion that scientists know more than anonymous posters here at PA (including you).

News Flash: I don't disagree.

What I was laughing at was that you actually posed that question to me.

I'm in your head now...I get it...it makes you ask stupid questions.

[PaceAdvantage]

Speaking of numbers...here is an interesting page off the CDC website...interesting to me at least....

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Is it interesting to you?

We should just lockdown forever...look at how many lives are saved overall when people stay in their house! Especially the weeks of 5/2 and 5/9.

NOBODY is dying anymore...forget about COVID-19...look how safe people are locked in place...nobody is getting run over by buses or crashing their cars into ravines...

Also notice how consistent people are in their dying capacity...virtually the same number of dead people every week until COVID started to take its toll during the last week of March...looks like the peak was in mid-April, as expected...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Speaking of numbers...here is an interesting page off the CDC website...interesting to me at least....

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Is it interesting to you?

We should just lockdown forever...look at how many lives are saved overall when people stay in their house! Especially the weeks of 5/2 and 5/9.

NOBODY is dying anymore...forget about COVID-19...look how safe people are locked in place...nobody is getting run over by buses or crashing their cars into ravines...

Also notice how consistent people are in their dying capacity...virtually the same number of dead people every week until COVID started to take its toll during the last week of March...looks like the peak was in mid-April, as expected...

All the numbers are interesting to me once you know what's going into them, but those CDC numbers are trailing by a couple of weeks and it would take awhile for me to understand them. They will all change (rise) as the death certificates get processed. It's kind of like the NY data. They give you some really low number to start, then when you check back 2 weeks later the number for that same date is much higher because they processed more deaths that occurred on that date.

Some very smart stats guys are tracking all the data and sorting through what it all means. I'd recommend Nate Silver on Twitter. His daily updates are excellent.

[Tom]

***WARNING - HORSE RACING POST***



Coumo has green lighted 3 regions for early re-opening - FL, Southern Tier, and Mohawk region.

FL is expecting to open the backside June 1 and resume ring 1st week of July. Mohawk Region

This would be good news for Toga to be able to run without fans.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

***WARNING - HORSE RACING POST***



Coumo has green lighted 3 regions for early re-opening - FL, Southern Tier, and Mohawk region.

FL is expecting to open the backside June 1 and resume ring 1st week of July. Mohawk Region

This would be good news for Toga to be able to run without fans.

Here's the dashboard

https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard

Unfortunately, Long Island still has a way to go in the death category and that could hold up Belmont.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

1. Yesterday the country reported a significant increase in the number of people that have recovered from the virus. It was far and away the biggest daily jump of recoveries.

2. The trend for the number of people on the critical/serious condition list is slowly shrinking now for the first time.

3. The number of "active" cases shrunk for the very first time yesterday.

Trends in NY also remain favorable.

Believe it or not. Every man for himself.

May 7th China shut down Jilin City
Jilin City = 4 million people.

They opened April 7th 2020, kids back to school etc.

5 weeks later they are shutting down again.

No small ball either....Residents cannot leave the city, its surrounded and blocked.

Anyone who wants to leave Jilin – the second biggest city in the province of the same name – must provide a negative report for a nucleic acid test done in the 48 hours before departure.



The city’s education bureau meanwhile announced that all schools would be closed with immediate effect, and any group activities – such as training, tutoring, competitions or exams – have been banned.


Some middle school and all high school students in the city had returned to the classroom last month after a lengthy shutdown, and more were due to go back soon. Now they will all be learning from home again.

———-

This information is out there. Bloomberg, Reuters,China Daily Post. More.


Wuhan, cases rising this week and China announces they will test all 11 million Residents. In a week.

China is making testing the new normal. They’re manufacturing 150 million test a month at current capacity. 5 million new test kits per day.


—————

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

All the numbers are interesting to me once you know what's going into them, but those CDC numbers are trailing by a couple of weeks and it would take awhile for me to understand them. They will all change (rise) as the death certificates get processed. It's kind of like the NY data. They give you some really low number to start, then when you check back 2 weeks later the number for that same date is much higher because they processed more deaths that occurred on that date.

Some very smart stats guys are tracking all the data and sorting through what it all means. I'd recommend Nate Silver on Twitter. His daily updates are excellent.

I actually think Nate Silver is exactly the problem.

We should be listening to epidemiologists. Academics who study these things. Not Nate Silver.

Nate Silver thinks his expertise in statistics, which is real, makes him an expert in everything, including politics. sports, and now epidemiology. It doesn't. He's gotten a ton of stuff wrong and jumped to a lot of conclusions since the start of the pandemic. He can't stand the idea that there's another group of people (epidemiologists) who understand the subject better than he does. It's the same way he has contempt for all these people who worked in politics before he did.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Tom

***WARNING - HORSE RACING POST***

Shouldn't that be posted in the General Racing Forum?