NYRA: Saratoga Race Course’s Summer Season Will Likely Occur Without Fans

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

200,000+ Americans dead would be an utter disaster.

https://covid19-projections.com/

According to these projections (and this model has been very good) there's a 34% chance of 200k deaths by August 1st, let alone by the end of the pandemic.

Scroll down a little and you'll see the probability tables.

There are also state by state projections, former and current r0 estimates, and estimated actual infections compared to test results.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

200,000+ Americans dead would be an utter disaster.

for shit like this, seems reasonable. How many died in 1918? (the general comparison to this virus).

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

for shit like this, seems reasonable. How many died in 1918? (the general comparison to this virus).

The “Spanish” flu of 1918 was H1N1 type A.

Medical treatment has come a long way in 102 years.

But to answer your question approx 675,000

But due to medical advancements it’s an apples to oranges comparison.

Allan

[PaceAdvantage]

500,000 people die every year from smoking, yet every bodega and convenience store in NYC still has cigs legally on sale right now as I type this.

Yeah, we as a country are suddenly SO WORRIED about people dying...

What a compassionate country we have suddenly become...at the cost of millions of economically ruined lives no less.

It's about time, I guess.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

500,000 people die every year from smoking, yet every bodega and convenience store in NYC still has cigs legally on sale right now as I type this.

Yeah, we as a country are suddenly SO WORRIED about people dying...

What a compassionate country we have suddenly become...at the cost of millions of economically ruined lives no less.

It's about time, I guess.

"We shouldn't worry about 9/11. Heck, more people die in traffic accidents in New York."

Seriously, you can always find something that kills more people. So what? I still don't want to see 200,000 of my fellow Americans to die of this, and I won't minimize it by comparing apples to oranges.

[PaceAdvantage]

Remember when they told us this shelter-in-place lockdown was to save our healthcare system? The lockdowns were implemented not to stop people from ever acquiring the virus...it wasn't implemented to stop people from ever dying from COVID-19....

It was implemented to prevent a whole mass of people from acquiring it ALL AT THE SAME TIME...thus overwhelming our healthcare system...we were doing this to FLATTEN THE CURVE...

Well, the curve was flattened LONG AGO...

Remember how Aqueduct was gonna be used as healthcare overflow? Never happened.

Remember how the Javits center was gonna be used for COVID-19 healthcare? Last I heard they were dismantling that whole setup. Was it even ever used?

Remember the drama behind the HOSPITAL SHIP? Barely used...and left the harbor long ago...

So, apparently, the curve was flattened...weeks ago...but the goalposts continue to be moved based on some ever-lurking potential disaster...that's the new narrative....

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Suff

My sense is that we’ll keep opening into a ~ 200,000-300,00 death ceiling. 5-8 weeks. Herd immunity is the plan it seems.

Your numbers seem quite impossible to attain given that worldwide, there have been 280,000 deaths to date....WORLDWIDE....over almost four months...when nobody was social distancing at the beginning....

So...how do you figured 200-300k deaths in the USA alone?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Remember when they told us this shelter-in-place lockdown was to save our healthcare system? The lockdowns were implemented not to stop people from ever acquiring the virus...it wasn't implemented to stop people from ever dying from COVID-19....

It was implemented to prevent a whole mass of people from acquiring it ALL AT THE SAME TIME...thus overwhelming our healthcare system...we were doing this to FLATTEN THE CURVE...

Well, the curve was flattened LONG AGO...

Remember how Aqueduct was gonna be used as healthcare overflow? Never happened.

Remember how the Javits center was gonna be used for COVID-19 healthcare? Last I heard they were dismantling that whole setup. Was it even ever used?

Remember the drama behind the HOSPITAL SHIP? Barely used...and left the harbor long ago...

So, apparently, the curve was flattened...weeks ago...but the goalposts continue to be moved based on some ever-lurking potential disaster...that's the new narrative....

The distancing was about flattening the curve, but that doesn't mean it was exclusively about flattening the curve.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Seriously, you can always find something that kills more people. So what? I still don't want to see 200,000 of my fellow Americans to die of this, and I won't minimize it by comparing apples to oranges.

You're right about one thing....apples to oranges.

We can SO EASILY put an end to 500,000 deaths every year in the USA by simply outlawing the sale of cigarettes...and we don't!

But we can't put an end to people catching this coronavirus (like every coronavirus, basically), but damn it, we're gonna ruin millions of lives (economically) trying to do just that.

Apples to oranges indeed.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You're right about one thing....apples to oranges.

We can SO EASILY put an end to 500,000 deaths every year in the USA by simply outlawing the sale of cigarettes...and we don't!

But we can't put an end to people catching this coronavirus (like every coronavirus, basically), but damn it, we're gonna ruin millions of lives (economically) trying to do just that.

Apples to oranges indeed.

Smokers kill themselves. Back when smokers killed other people, we DID impose a bunch of restrictions on the freedom to smoke.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Smokers kill themselves.

Where's your compassion for dead people now?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Where's your compassion for dead people now?

I have plenty of compassion for smokers who die of lung cancer.

But freedom arguments are really powerful when you are talking about people taking known risks that only harm themselves.

Why you think "I should have the freedom to kill myself" and "I should have the freedom to kill others" are equivalent or comparable mystifies me.

[Magician]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Smokers kill themselves. Back when smokers killed other people, we DID impose a bunch of restrictions on the freedom to smoke.

your point is ridiculous.

secondhand smoke still causes approximately 7,330 deaths from lung cancer and 33,950 deaths from heart disease each year. how come smoking isn't banned altogether? are those 40,000 lives not as valuable as the people dying from coronavirus?

https://www.lung.org/quit-smoking/sm...condhand-smoke



you can't shut down the economy for 100,000-200,000 deaths. it is insanity. people sadly die. the government should be requiring masks and social distancing, not shutting down entire sectors of the economy to protect people. people need to protect themselves. there is no rational reason for horses not to be racing at belmont park. it is just a governor being an idiot. horses go to the track everyday no matter what. do trainers still have to pay their workers comp? yes. do owners still need to pay their feed bills. yes. do farms still have to pay their real estate taxes. yes. where does cuomo think the money comes from? does it grown on trees?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

The “Spanish” flu of 1918 was H1N1 type A.

Medical treatment has come a long way in 102 years.

But to answer your question approx 675,000

But due to medical advancements it’s an apples to oranges comparison.

Allan

200K IS a lot.

But when a million are dead from poverty, not being able to seek medical treatment (cancer diagnosis are down 40% this year), new homelessness,m suicide, etc....think that 200k is going to look mighty small.

I would generalize that most of this board are older so obviously COVID 19 is a much greater threat than economic turmoil at this point. I try to look at things from both sides of the equation, to find a balance.

[classhandicapper]

Initially, the idea was to flatten the curve and get the R0 below 1 so hospitals did not get overwhelmed. That has been accomplished.

Now we will open up slowly in phases and monitor the impacts over 1-2 week periods to make sure the r0 does not go back above 1.

If we swung wide open again the r0 would almost certainly go back above 1 and we'd be back to square 1 putting the healthcare system and hospitals back at risk. We already know the R0 is way above 1 without distancing, masks, and locking down.

We made a lot of mistakes (especially not focusing WAY WAY more energy on the at risk populations like the elderly and sick).

But generally, IMO, opening up slowly and measuring impacts is 100% correct. I don't necessarily agree that we need to keep Belmont closed if good protocols are in place, but imo in general it would be a clear cut mistake to have the country wide open too fast. We'd blow 200k deaths out of the water in a couple of months and quite easily. We have to keep using masks, distancing etc.. and see how much we can get away with opening without too heavy a downside.

Things are already loosening up where I live in Queens and it was hit extremely hard. More restaurants are opening with delivery and pick up service and a few other businesses are working with smaller crews using CDC guidelines.