HONG KONG PRE-Race TOTE Analysis

[traynor]

I think more on this forum would be persuaded of the viability of your approach if you provided the ROI values for early selections WITHOUT the live changes. That is, the (expected) return for dutching the early selections (the information you provide pre-race) in addition to the (expected) return after live modifications (the information unavailable to most until after the race is over).

That might diminish the perception that your live changes are manipulated (after the race) to make results (seem) better, and encourage a more objective evaluation of your postings.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by traynor

I think more on this forum would be persuaded of the viability of your approach if you provided the ROI values for early selections WITHOUT the live changes. That is, the (expected) return for dutching the early selections (the information you provide pre-race) in addition to the (expected) return after live modifications (the information unavailable to most until after the race is over).

That might diminish the perception that your live changes are manipulated (after the race) to make results (seem) better, and encourage a more objective evaluation of your postings.

Apparently you’re not comprehending the Updated information very well. I’ve been posting the same format after each race card is completed. I thought it was pretty clear that each and every post reflects ONLY the results from the Early picks for a 3-entry Dutch Win play. That’s why I also included the link to the original HK thread that illustrates the Dutch calculations for each race.

I know you'll be disappointed, but there's nothing to "diminish". Because there is no manipulation what-so-ever. I will not post the information and results for my Live plays. So now you can make whatever evaluation to your heart’s content.
Have fun!

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Apparently you’re not comprehending the Updated information very well. I’ve been posting the same format after each race card is completed. I thought it was pretty clear that each and every post reflects ONLY the results from the Early picks for a 3-entry Dutch Win play. That’s why I also included the link to the original HK thread that illustrates the Dutch calculations for each race.

I know you'll be disappointed, but there's nothing to "diminish". Because there is no manipulation what-so-ever. I will not post the information and results for my Live plays. So now you can make whatever evaluation to your heart’s content.
Have fun!

Thank you for your response and clarification. In some of the previous races you have a "moved up live" notation. If you do not post the information and results of your live play, why is that notation needed (or used)? Late scratches? Something else?

[traynor]

No response required. My error. Apologies. I don't have much free time, and the question was based on (my) inadequate understanding of your posting format.

[traynor]

Open question. Has anyone taken the time to actually test this approach on his or her own? Meaning, using the pre-race selections provided, running them through the dutch calculator with odds close to post time, and recording the results?

I just downloaded the simple dutch calculator. With all due respect, it is a little brutal. Anyone take the time to make it more presentable/user friendly? If so, are you willing to share the improved version?

I am assuming that somewhere in all the many, many words written, there is something about deficit carryovers, but I seem to have missed it. It is nice when every day ends with a 48-50% win rate and a tidy 30+% profit, but there must be days when that doesn't happen. Does the next day start in the red?

I apologize if my questions have been covered elsewhere. I am running data mining apps on my computers and they are slow as molasses in January. In Quebec. Outside.

[formula_2002]

I have used dutching or what I call proportional odds bets for what seems forever,( in my case that is a very long time)

I use the following in my programs

sum 1/(odds+1) for any number of horses then normalize each

three horses with odds 2-1,3-1 and 6-1
1/3 + 1/4 + 1/7 = =.726

now 1/3, .33/.726 = .4545
1/4, .25/.726 = .344
1/7, .142/.726 = .195

that all sums to 1 (allowed for rounding).

so your total bet is always 1 unit, and it should return your $1 bet + $1

so if you bet 10 races, your total bet is 10

if you win 5 ,your total return is $10

of course you never know the final odds, so you may receive less than your $1 + your $1 win, $2.00. You could receive $1.80 or perhaps $2.10

I like to compare dutch return to a flab bet return
If your dutch is returning less than the flat bet return, you need to compensate for that by winning more often.
Dutch alone will not make you a profit

[AltonKelsey]

Maybe we should take the mystique , the voodoo , out of this dutching thing, so more people can appreciate it.


Sticking simply to win bets, proportional dutching (as opposed to weighted), the process is best thought of as creating a SYNTHETIC ENTRY.

Hong Kong in its infinite wisdom already does this for you with their three 'tier' bet (the faves, the middle ,and the long).

But we are doing it ourselves by selecting the horses to use.

So, there's nothing magic about. Someone claiming to have a winning method would have to be including a LOT of winners, and a LOT of overlays.

If they can in fact do that , they can make money. A lot of money.

I'd focus more on how winners are being divined than the dutching part. Dutching losers = ZERO.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I have used dutching or what I call proportional odds bets for what seems forever,( in my case that is a very long time)

I use the following in my programs

sum 1/(odds+1) for any number of horses then normalize each

three horses with odds 2-1,3-1 and 6-1
1/3 + 1/4 + 1/7 = =.726

now 1/3, .33/.726 = .4545
1/4, .25/.726 = .344
1/7, .142/.726 = .195

that all sums to 1 (allowed for rounding).

so your total bet is always 1 unit, and it should return your $1 bet + $1

so if you bet 10 races, your total bet is 10

if you win 5 ,your total return is $10

of course you never know the final odds, so you may receive less than your $1 + your $1 win, $2.00. You could receive $1.80 or perhaps $2.10

I like to compare dutch return to a flab bet return
If your dutch is returning less than the flat bet return, you need to compensate for that by winning more often.
Dutch alone will not make you a profit

Thanks! That is exactly what I needed.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Maybe we should take the mystique , the voodoo , out of this dutching thing, so more people can appreciate it.


Sticking simply to win bets, proportional dutching (as opposed to weighted), the process is best thought of as creating a SYNTHETIC ENTRY.

Hong Kong in its infinite wisdom already does this for you with their three 'tier' bet (the faves, the middle ,and the long).

But we are doing it ourselves by selecting the horses to use.

So, there's nothing magic about. Someone claiming to have a winning method would have to be including a LOT of winners, and a LOT of overlays.

If they can in fact do that , they can make money. A lot of money.

I'd focus more on how winners are being divined than the dutching part. Dutching losers = ZERO.

I agree. but I am open to alternatives (providing they generate a decent profit). The caveat with dutching (as with due column, which I use often and successfully) is that one has to pick enough winners (however that process is accomplished) to generate profit.

I am trying to understand what is being done here. It may be that the key is in the process used to make the pre-race selections, and the basis for that process (apparently morning lines, with perhaps some added calculations of the relationships of those morning lines). As superficially foolish as it may seem at first glance, I don't want to discard something that may be valuable because of superficial impressions.

Fred Brenner and his advocates made a lot of money over a long stretch of time with nothing more complex than tossing the favorite (in specific odds ranges) and boxing BCD in quinielas and exactas. The only thing he had "discovered" is that odds can often be used to expose false favorites (often heavily bet false favorites) and that exposure can lead to profitable opportunities. Complexity is not useful if simple stuff works better.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by traynor

I agree. but I am open to alternatives (providing they generate a decent profit). The caveat with dutching (as with due column, which I use often and successfully) is that one has to pick enough winners (however that process is accomplished) to generate profit.

I am trying to understand what is being done here. It may be that the key is in the process used to make the pre-race selections, and the basis for that process (apparently morning lines, with perhaps some added calculations of the relationships of those morning lines). As superficially foolish as it may seem at first glance, I don't want to discard something that may be valuable because of superficial impressions.

Complexity is not useful if simple stuff works better.

I can appreciate your interest. So far I’ve personally been doing very well both on the selection side as well as the betting side of this Dutching demonstration. The method of my madness is as I’ve explained previously based on what we call a “static (pre-race) tote” analysis. I naturally can’t divulge its intricacies, but I will say that the only way it can work properly is with the availability and transparency of the information provided by the HKJC.

In most cases it provides 3 entries of interest that have no other speculative value then their M/L’s. (Yes there’s more then 1). In some races it points to a 4th entry of interest which also has to be considered (and one that I mention with my early posted selections), but unfortunately because I’m limited to only 3 for Dutching purposes, I post what I believe to be the best 3 Early choices. Later on of course the Live tote action will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 or 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause me to make substitutions if necessary. This is why I believe the Live analysis has produced even better results. There’s no mystery here either, because anyone playing along can visually compare the entries of interest with the live betting activities in the Win, Place and Quinella pools.

[FakeNameChanged]

Nitro, Is there any reason why you're limited to only 3 plays in your dutching? With a generous odds on all four, why not on occasion play a 4th? It might push your hit ratio higher although the ROI may not do the same.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Nitro, Is there any reason why you're limited to only 3 plays in your dutching? With a generous odds on all four, why not on occasion play a 4th? It might push your hit ratio higher although the ROI may not do the same.

That’s an interesting suggestion, and I’m sure it would have an immediate impact on the resulting Profit margins (lowering them). How that might correspond to an expected increase in the hit ratio I’m not sure.
I actually feel pretty comfortable using the Live tote analysis for my final Dutch betting of 3 entries because my hit frequency is already 20% higher than the 48% achieved with selections using the static analysis. That’s because of the substitutions I’m making from my Early Top 3.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I can appreciate your interest. So far I’ve personally been doing very well both on the selection side as well as the betting side of this Dutching demonstration. The method of my madness is as I’ve explained previously based on what we call a “static (pre-race) tote” analysis. I naturally can’t divulge its intricacies, but I will say that the only way it can work properly is with the availability and transparency of the information provided by the HKJC.

In most cases it provides 3 entries of interest that have no other speculative value then their M/L’s. (Yes there’s more then 1). In some races it points to a 4th entry of interest which also has to be considered (and one that I mention with my early posted selections), but unfortunately because I’m limited to only 3 for Dutching purposes, I post what I believe to be the best 3 Early choices. Later on of course the Live tote action will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 or 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause me to make substitutions if necessary. This is why I believe the Live analysis has produced even better results. There’s no mystery here either, because anyone playing along can visually compare the entries of interest with the live betting activities in the Win, Place and Quinella pools.

Thank you for the extended (and quite clear) explanation of your approach. It makes a LOT more sense now.

[AltonKelsey]

Yes, I'm totally satisfied at this point.

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 17 race days in HK and ALL 153 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 48 % w/Early picks (68% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching EVERY race totaled $10,475 Bet w/Net Profit of $3,868 and OA Profit margin of 37%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 48% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 so far).
5) Considering the 48% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------->

 
TK	DATE	R1	Bt	P$L	R2	Bt	P$L	R3	Bt	P$L	R4	Bt	P$L	R5	Bt	P$L	R6	Bt	P$L	R7	Bt	P$L	R8	Bt	P$L	R9	Bt	P$L	R10	Bt	P$L	R11	Bt	P$L
HV	9/21	1800 T	43	(43)	1800 T	33	22 	1200 T	30	20 	1650 T	30	(30)	1200 T	43	48 	1200 T	36	33 	1200 T	64	47 	1650 T	31	(31)	 			 			 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	9/25	1200 T	57	(57)	1600 T	58	34 	1400 T	137	350 	1200 T	149	(149)	1200 D	101	151 	1400 T	45	(45)	1200 D	95	(95)	1200 Y	76	56 	1600 T	70	(70)	1400 T	84	111 	 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	9/28	1650 T	49	67 	1200 T	136	270 	1650 T	104	262 	1200 T	43	68 	1000 T	77	(77)	1800 T	154	(154)	1200 T	42	(42)	1650 T	100	(100)	 			 			 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/1	1400 T	84	90 	1800 T	96	111 	1400 T	76	(76)	1600 T	33	(33)	1200 T	71	(71)	1200 T	96	58 	1200 T	64	177 	1000 T	93	51 	1400 T	156	217 	1400 T	98	(98)	1200 T	66	(66)
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/5	1800 T	52	(52)	1200 T	58	(58)	1200 T	62	46 	1200 T	82	118 	1650 T	73	64 	1650 T	91	149 	1650 T	65	(65)	1200 T	102	84 	 			 			 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/8	1200 T	64	58 	1200 T	84	118 	1200 T	75	(75)	1400 T	87	143 	1650 D	46	(46)	1650 T	42	(42)	1000 T	79	72 	1600 T	59	(59)	1200 T	46	(46)	1400 T	77	196 	 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/12	1650 T	98	100 	1200 T	80	96 	1650 T	92	64 	1200 T	86	(86)	1650 T	88	167 	1000 T	38	(38)	1800 T	75	(75)	1200 T	89	(89)	 			 			 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/16	1000 T	60	30 	1600 T	82	58 	1400 T	111	177 	1200 T	82	82 	1400 T 	73	(73)	1600 T	62	(62)	1800 T	100	170 	1200 T	100	110 	1400 T	72	90 	1000 T	60	(60)	1400 T	150	114 
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/19	1000 T	51	(51)	1200 T	51	(51)	1200 T	83	(83)	1200 T	71	204 	1650 T	34	(34)	1650 T	48	(48)	1200 T	75	61 	1200 T	30	(30)	 			 			 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	10/23	1200 D	51	86 	1200 T	56	(56)	1400 T	101	379 	1400 T	57	(57)	1200 D	55	(55)	1200 T	56	48 	1200 T	59	(59)	1600 T	61	(61)	1600 T	94	(94)	1800 T	114	(114)	 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/26	1200 T	26	(26)	1650 T	78	90 	1650 T	82	86 	1000 T	0	0 	2200 T	39	(39)	1650 T	66	51 	1000 T	47	(47)	1650 T	47	(47)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	10/30	1650 T	54	48 	1800 T	61	(61)	1200 T	54	(54)	1650 T	38	(38)	1200 T	54	(54)	1650 T	43	(43)	1650 T	79	91 	1200 T	80	104 	1800 T	54	120 	1200 T	46	79 	 	 	 
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	11/2	1200 D	66	(66)	1200 D	65	(65)	1650 D	59	(59)	1200 D	55	116 	1200 D	84	116 	1800 D	59	(59)	1200 D	78	123 	1650 D	44	(44)	 			 			 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	11/6	1400 T	59	50 	1200 T	41	(41)	1400 T	38	(38)	1200 T	50	(50)	1000 T	46	(46)	1600 T	60	(60)	1400 T	86	116 	1800 T	97	372 	1400 T	50	(50)	1400 T	34	(34)	1400 T	58	87 
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	11/9	1000 T	54	(54)	1650 T	73	129 	1650 T	62	62 	1200 T	95	333 	1200 T	83	(83)	1800 T	64	59 	1200 T	52	(52)	1200 T	79	(79)	 			 			 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
ST	11/12	2000 T	36	(36)	1200 T	54	39 	1650 D	57	99 	1400 T	66	51 	1650 D	98	70 	1400 T	47	(47)	1000 T	37	(37)	1400 T	46	(46)	1200 T	101	441 	1600 T	68	(68)	 		
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
HV	11/16	1200 T	45	66 	1000 T	76	90 	1200 T	44	58 	1650 T	56	(56)	1650 T	40	(40)	1650 T	38	(38)	1800 T	61	(61)	1200 T	57	69 	 			 			 		
  

Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley Wed 11/16/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134677