Solids Picks? Tweak your Wagering...

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by jocko699

VTG,

I have moved toward P3, P4 and P5. I only play the big mutual tracks on both coasts and rarely make straight bets anymore. I have a few friends that play the tri's and supers but I am terrible at it.

I have learned after many years of wagering ineffectively to be patient as Robert states. Play those races you really feel strongly about and only watch the others to gather any purposeful information.

My example is today. I thought the 8th at SA was a lock which would mean a straight bet. I had set out to make a large wager for me, $300 to win, yet thought I might also make a string wager for a higher return. I still made a healthy win bet but I thought the 9th may be a single so instead of playing a $.50 P4 I raised it to a $1 P4 singling the last 2. In this case it won and I got back over $1300.00 on a $20 bet.

My point is that I was patient which I could not do 10 years ago and it paid off today in a nice way. Doesn't always but I am seeing better results sticking to these ideals.

GL

I agree with you here...one advantage of being a horizontal player is that you begin to get a feel for which races can be singled or dutched and which races are chaos races...which provides the necessary leverage (spread) in which to hope for a longer price winner to boost the payoff...because the short priced combinations are not worth the investment versus the risk...and patience is the key.

But I think that a player that does not have ADW account and much more choice over which races he can play is at a most intolerable disadvantage...I would suspect that nowadays, any player that is limited by the races his local track/ simulcast venue provides is mostly in the boneyard as far as profits are concerned...

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by jocko699

VTG,

I have moved toward P3, P4 and P5. I only play the big mutual tracks on both coasts and rarely make straight bets anymore. I have a few friends that play the tri's and supers but I am terrible at it.

I have learned after many years of wagering ineffectively to be patient as Robert states. Play those races you really feel strongly about and only watch the others to gather any purposeful information.

My example is today. I thought the 8th at SA was a lock which would mean a straight bet. I had set out to make a large wager for me, $300 to win, yet thought I might also make a string wager for a higher return. I still made a healthy win bet but I thought the 9th may be a single so instead of playing a $.50 P4 I raised it to a $1 P4 singling the last 2. In this case it won and I got back over $1300.00 on a $20 bet.

My point is that I was patient which I could not do 10 years ago and it paid off today in a nice way. Doesn't always but I am seeing better results sticking to these ideals.

GL

Another point here is look at the Santa Ynez thread. Jocko states he "loves" this horse. I state I "sort of like" a horse. Guess who made money? If you feel confident, bet like it.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by jay68802

At this moment, I have found 2 horses that I want to play at Laurel on Monday. They are in the 7th and 8th races. Right now I know I am going to spend any where from $20.00 to $400.00 on those races. I am going to watch the races before that and try to get a feel for how the track is playing. Track conditions are going to be a part of how I play those races. The horse in the 7th is a horse that from experience, can be used vertically in that race. The horse in the 8th should be played as a win bet or a key in doubles or pick 3's. If speed is dying, the horse in the 8th should be ignored. I have already figured out the other horses in each race that I will also use. It's a large list, scratches and track conditions will help in shortening it. Right now this is all I can do. Another part of this is going to be the Double will pays from the 6th to 7th race. They will give me a idea of what I can expect in the 7th race. So as it sits now, I have a general plan of attack.

In the 7th race, the other horses I am thinking of using are listed by running style and morning line odds. If I am lucky and see a bias, then the horses that will be helped by the bias and have the highest odds become the focus of the bets. If it is a fair track, I have more work to do.

Only half the work is done but the basis is in place.

Select your horse.
Figure out what type of bets your selection fits.
Make a plan now, not a 3 min till post.
Narrow your bets down by track conditions, running style, then by odds.
Pray you can spot a bias track

Excellent write-up. Really like the idea of having a basis in place while waiting necessarily for other relevant info to arise, like possible bias, etc. Yes, I really do need to have that basis in place...formerly, it was all a mad dash to the windows, a wagering hack, and handicapping confusion at its finest...I have vowed to change....thanks.

[oughtoh]

Thanks for the topic and all of the responses. Sometimes you get away from what you know and this puts things back into prospective, at least for me.

[jay68802]

And so the game goes, the horse I liked in the 7th today is scratched. Leaving me with 1 selection in the 8th. A need the lead type, coming off a injury. But is the only graded stakes winner in the field. And at 15-1 ML is worth a small risk.
$10.00 Win on 1, play a double with 6,8,9,10,13 to the 1 and a Pick 3, the same as the double with the 2, 10 in the 9th. Total $30.00 and if the track shows that early speed if favored I will double the win bet.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Your starting bankroll needn't be "large"; the vital thing is that it must really be SEPARATE from any other money that you need for your daily existence. I know more than a few horseplayers who carry THOUSANDS of dollars in their pocket every day...but they play like paupers because they really need this money for other things...in spite of what they publicly say.

This being the era of the $1 exacta...you can play this game the "right way", even with a "small" starting bankroll. It's just that, what you lack in initial funds...you will need to make up in PATIENCE. Don't fall into the trap of harboring large expectations when your bankroll is small. The game isn't going anywhere...and there is really no need to "hurry". Bring your game up to acceptable standards...set up a small starting bankroll...and build it up over time. And the self-confidence that you will gain as a result will be worth even more than the bankroll that you will eventually grow. Take my word for it.

So, for example, I know that during the entire year I will wager at least $5000 at the very minimum (basically $100 a day for 50 consecutive Saturdays)...Now formerly I didn't have a BANKROLL but just used some discretionary spending monies leftover after I first paid all my bills for the months....

I guess if I sequester $5000 into a separate account I could tell very easily where I am dollar wise at any given moment of the year, and could then easily calculate my ROI for the year based on my initially BANKROLL...

...I have often wondered how ROI was calculated because often I was partially betting with winnings all the time in win/ loss churn cycles...and make draws only when my daily winning dwindled to zero...and I never have kept a record of how much I was actually "investing", ie, losing.

There is always talk about ROI, and how anything above 1.00 is good because of the onerous TAKE and BREAKAGE of anywhere between 15% to 25%...

But there is seldom any talk of the ABSOLUTE DOLLARS that these ROI figures are representing...

It almost seems like there is a certain pride of having a real high ROI, say between 1.25 and 1.50...as the measure of horseplayers' ability compared with others, but WITHOUT really indicating actual dollar amounts won or lost for the year...

It's only "I had a positive year with an ROI of 1.33"...etc, etc.

ROI = 1.15
Profit Margin

$1,000 = $150
$5,000 = $750
$10,000= $1,500
$20,000= $3000
$50,000= $7,500
$100,000= $15,000
$1,000,000= $150,000

So I guess I should consider myself a good player, if after a year of play, I wind up with a net profit of $1,500 while acknowledging that I most likely will need to push $10,000 thru the windows to arrive at that kind of net profit based on an ROI of 1.15.

Sharks and Whales that maintain an ROI of 1.15 are likely swimming in money as they can push upwards of $1,000,000 thru the windows and make $150,000 for each $1 Million BANKROLL.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

....I guess if I sequester $5000 into a separate account I could tell very easily where I am dollar wise at any given moment of the year, and could then easily calculate my ROI for the year based on my initially BANKROLL...

...I have often wondered how ROI was calculated because often I was partially betting with winnings all the time in win/ loss churn cycles...and make draws only when my daily winning dwindled to zero...and I never have kept a record of how much I was actually "investing", ie, losing.

If you truly want to up your game you shouldn't be guessing about anything with regard to your betting. Most poor players don't keep records because they are either too lazy or don't want to know the truth about their betting. Records should show how much you won or lost, your ROI, your success or failure with various types of bets by track, and your proficiency with types of races by class, age, distance and surface. And I would also keep track of your feelings before betting each race. How many times were you right or wrong when you felt that there was a lone speed horse in a race? How strongly did you feel about your selection? Use a scale of 1-10. If your feel ratings match up with good results (high ROI) then you know you are on the right path. You may find that you are real good at maiden claiming route races and poor at turf stake races.

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

So I guess I should consider myself a good player, if after a year of play, I wind up with a net profit of $1,500 while acknowledging that I most likely will need to push $10,000 thru the windows to arrive at that kind of net profit based on an ROI of 1.15.

Sharks and Whales that maintain an ROI of 1.15 are likely swimming in money as they can push upwards of $1,000,000 thru the windows and make $150,000 for each $1 Million BANKROLL.

Betting recreational money where winning or losing really has no consequences is nothing like betting for your livelihood. The pressure of making large wagers over an extended period of time should not be understated. The level of play, however, should not diminish any satisfaction derived from ending up on the plus side of a very difficult game.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by AndyC

If you truly want to up your game you shouldn't be guessing about anything with regard to your betting. Most poor players don't keep records because they are either too lazy or don't want to know the truth about their betting. Records should show how much you won or lost, your ROI, your success or failure with various types of bets by track, and your proficiency with types of races by class, age, distance and surface. And I would also keep track of your feelings before betting each race. How many times were you right or wrong when you felt that there was a lone speed horse in a race? How strongly did you feel about your selection? Use a scale of 1-10. If your feel ratings match up with good results (high ROI) then you know you are on the right path. You may find that you are real good at maiden claiming route races and poor at turf stake races.



Betting recreational money where winning or losing really has no consequences is nothing like betting for your livelihood. The pressure of making large wagers over an extended period of time should not be understated. The level of play, however, should not diminish any satisfaction derived from ending up on the plus side of a very difficult game.

Some very true points here. On the day I made my largest hit in this game, a fellow handicapper told me afterwards that he knew that i was going to hit big that day.(He also profited) His words were "you were so confident when you got here, I bet your horse without looking at the race".

And yes, I have records of my bets last year. Today I "like" a horse. On a scale of 1-10, I'm at a 5. The way the laurel track is today (fair, but need to be close to the front), I am sticking to what I stated earlier on how I am betting. That is until I know the odds.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by AndyC

If you truly want to up your game you shouldn't be guessing about anything with regard to your betting. Most poor players don't keep records because they are either too lazy or don't want to know the truth about their betting. Records should show how much you won or lost, your ROI, your success or failure with various types of bets by track, and your proficiency with types of races by class, age, distance and surface. And I would also keep track of your feelings before betting each race. How many times were you right or wrong when you felt that there was a lone speed horse in a race? How strongly did you feel about your selection? Use a scale of 1-10. If your feel ratings match up with good results (high ROI) then you know you are on the right path. You may find that you are real good at maiden claiming route races and poor at turf stake races.



Betting recreational money where winning or losing really has no consequences is nothing like betting for your livelihood. The pressure of making large wagers over an extended period of time should not be understated. The level of play, however, should not diminish any satisfaction derived from ending up on the plus side of a very difficult game.

Andy, do you think my fundamental premise (see below) is correct that the profit amount for each level of Yearly $ Play is at least satisfactory and more or less what winning players in the real world are actually bringing home year-end-wise on average...?

ROI = 1.15
Profit Margin

$1,000 = $150
$5,000 = $750
$10,000= $1,500
$20,000= $3000
$50,000= $7,500
$100,000= $15,000
$1,000,000= $150,000

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Andy, do you think my fundamental premise (see below) is correct that the profit amount for each level of Yearly $ Play is at least satisfactory and more or less what players in the real world are actually bringing home year-end-wise on average...?

ROI = 1.15
Profit Margin

$1,000 = $150
$5,000 = $750
$10,000= $1,500
$20,000= $3000
$50,000= $7,500
$100,000= $15,000
$1,000,000= $150,000

I have no way of knowing what players bring home on average. I am also not sure what relevance that information provides even if known.

[oughtoh]

There is no way of knowing what you will win without keeping track year after year. Everyone is different. Some need money to live on or travel and some build their bankroll up.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I have no way of knowing what players bring home on average. I am also not sure what relevance that information provides even if known.

I understand, but it is such a fundamental question...somebody here with lots of experience simply MUST know...

Stated another way...

How ______(much) can I expect to push through the windows on a yearly basis in order to expect a _______ Amount of Profit if I have a ROI rate of _______...?

Like I say, I guess I should feel pretty satisfied with myself and my competence as a horseplayer if at years' end I can net a $1500 profit, having pushed $10,000 thru the window in order to do it...

meanwhile, I would have made the track somewhere between $1500 and $2500 based on TAKEOUT alone...So the track is in a WIN/ WIN position: They empty the pockets of the losing players while turning the winning players into their "employee/ partners" who make it all possible...this is the real reason why the tracks cater to sharks and whales giving them perks and rebates....the sharks and whales make the "system" operational for the tracks...

[jay68802]

The Double probable's to the 1 in the next race are at 18-1. This is about where they should be. No strange wagering or payouts. If the odds were at 25-1 or higher I would cancel the bet. Am adding the 11 in this race to the double and pick 3.

Now it is up to the horses.

[JohnGalt1]

After I have done my handicapping I decide how each race and bet should be placed.

I believe not every race should be played the same way.

1) I pass a race if every or most horses are equally likely to win or not win, or I like a horse under 5-2.

2 WIN BETS --If I like one horse I usually bet 1 unit/2 units win/place. If I like a horse for an exacta I box with my win bet, or 2 with my win bet.

OR if I like two horses to win, bet each 50/50 or if I like one more, 60%-40%, maybe add another in an exacta.

3) I seldom play trifectas, but when I do, I structure them as needed---A/BCD/all, or AB/ABCD/ABCDEF, or any other combination.

4)Same with supers.

5)Pick 3's, 4', etc. I use as many horse as needed in each leg.

IMPORTANT--if the ticket is too expensive, I don't play. I've learned cutting horses out of a ticket usually leaves me with 3 of 4 too many times to count.

I never bet every race the same. If you always bet win and a 3 horse exacta box every race, or 3/3/3 every time you play pick 3's when the pick 3 for that sequence should be 1/5/3 if that's what your handicapping reveals.

What helps me determine the way to play a race is from a quarter horse pamphlet I picked up years ago.

The author assigns his top horse(s) an A, next get B's, then C's.

My win bets are A's, exacta horses are B's, etc.

If no horse stands out, no letters given and pass the race.

If I land on an even money horse, I give it a B, which means not to bet to win, but may single in a pick 4 or 5.

In summary, let the race dictate the bets you make. Or don't make.

[jay68802]

Win Bet canceled because of odds.