Solids Picks? Tweak your Wagering...

[VigorsTheGrey]

As the new year sallies forth, I've found that my Picks are solid and frequently right there...trouble is, I don't know how to wager.

I'm happy with my methodology for selections, but still struggling to get my wagering under control and rational...any suggestions along these lines would be greatly appreciated...thanks.

[VigorsTheGrey]

In other words, I want to begin my new yer of betting by tweaking how I wager because what I do now is currently not working...My picks come in but my wagering patterns do not make any sense...I play a lot of exotics, but the payouts lately have been quite small...I am probably not alone by any means.

[thaskalos]

The only way we can possibly offer you any useful advice on exotics wagering is if you go into some detail about your current wagering methods. Telling us that your current wagering patterns "don't make any sense" isn't saying anything concrete.

[lamboguy]

i wish someone here could post the formula for breakage in exotic wagering. i have the feeling if we knew exactly what those numbers are no one would ever bet an exotic.

[Robert Fischer]

1. determine your bankroll
2. make a low estimate of hit percentage
3. run these numbers through kelly or similar bet-sizing formula

While each wager is somewhat unique, you should be able to find 'wager types' that represent some of your typical wagers.


Now you have some constraints to work with.


From there, you want to balance things like efficiency vs. hit% (are you going to play only overlays, or do you need to box horses to stay sane between dry spells?), boxcar vs. consistency (want to depend on a rare big score, or do you want to go slow and steady?) etc...

[Mulerider]

If your picks are solid, you might profit from online tournament play. The wagering decision is made for you.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

If your picks are solid, you might profit from online tournament play. The wagering decision is made for you.

Its been pretty liberating playing in tourneys, I can free roll creative ideas with little economic consequence when I am wrong.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I tend to see that there are 2 sides to this...the handicapping, and the wagering. If a person doesn't wager correctly, then the handicapping, no matter how good, won't be enough to gain any traction. That said, I have resolved to focus for a time on the wagering aspects...

...And then I stall out, what next...? What are the important questions to ask yourself...?

WPS
Horizontal
Vertical

My bankroll is $300 per race day....What amount of profit should I be aiming for on a consistent basis...?

I guess I need to make a decision to be a grinder or swing for the fences and absorb short terms losses...at $300 a day bankroll, how much loss should I be prepared to absorb/ withstand before it turns around...

Is a bankroll of $300 a daylarge enough to make any headway...?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I tend to see that there are 2 sides to this...the handicapping, and the wagering. If a person doesn't wager correctly, then the handicapping, no matter how good, won't be enough to gain any traction. That said, I have resolved to focus for a time on the wagering aspects...

...And then I stall out, what next...? What are the important questions to ask yourself...?

WPS
Horizontal
Vertical

My bankroll is $300 per race day....What amount of profit should I be aiming for on a consistent basis...?

I guess I need to make a decision to be a grinder or swing for the fences and absorb short terms losses...at $300 a day bankroll, how much loss should I be prepared to absorb/ withstand before it turns around...

Is a bankroll of $300 a daylarge enough to make any headway...?

I just think people need to look at it differently. If you need to make money, or feel like you need to for the effort than I would shoot for 15% profit after all expenses. So that would be about 20% for me. Thats no easy task with the takeout.

I broke even last year.

I feel like I won big though. Racing provided me I estimated over 2000 hours of entertainment for a net cost of 0 cents, thats pretty dang good. My wife owns, trains, boards horses, she spent about 7k net losses after everything for roughly an equivialnt amount of hours, by my account my business venture kicked her butt.

Not everyone will see it like that.

I have a buddy, he bets very aggressively, losses on a lot of days....then he hits that big day and makes a lot of money, he is still down for sure but he says, lets go party I made a killing....see he only looks at it what happened today, he financially accounted for the money yesterday so its all profits today. If that makes sense.

So set a goal and figure out what works for you, I dont bet 300 per day anymore, more like 100, I am more than happy at the end of the year to be even.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I just think people need to look at it differently. If you need to make money, or feel like you need to for the effort than I would shoot for 15% profit after all expenses. So that would be about 20% for me. Thats no easy task with the takeout.

I broke even last year.

I feel like I won big though. Racing provided me I estimated over 2000 hours of entertainment for a net cost of 0 cents, thats pretty dang good. My wife owns, trains, boards horses, she spent about 7k net losses after everything for roughly an equivialnt amount of hours, by my account my business venture kicked her butt.

Not everyone will see it like that.

I have a buddy, he bets very aggressively, losses on a lot of days....then he hits that big day and makes a lot of money, he is still down for sure but he says, lets go party I made a killing....see he only looks at it what happened today, he financially accounted for the money yesterday so its all profits today. If that makes sense.

So set a goal and figure out what works for you, I dont bet 300 per day anymore, more like 100, I am more than happy at the end of the year to be even.

So if I bet 48 Saturdays a year, for example, at $100 bankroll per day equals $4800 and profit 15%...I net $720 that year...now subtract $528 for Daily Racing Forms ($11 x 48)...leaves me $192 net profit for the year....Hmm....sure I got a lot of entertainment and satisfaction out of it...but that's it...? That's why I'm doing all this so I can make $200 a year...??? But I see what you mean about looking at it another way....I'm already doing that and losing money on top of it...But I enjoy the game and I suppose someday I'll walk away from it like so many others have, or just not go as much....nobody understands horseplayers...no, not even themselves...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I tend to see that there are 2 sides to this...the handicapping, and the wagering. If a person doesn't wager correctly, then the handicapping, no matter how good, won't be enough to gain any traction. That said, I have resolved to focus for a time on the wagering aspects...

...And then I stall out, what next...? What are the important questions to ask yourself...?

WPS
Horizontal
Vertical

My bankroll is $300 per race day....What amount of profit should I be aiming for on a consistent basis...?

I guess I need to make a decision to be a grinder or swing for the fences and absorb short terms losses...at $300 a day bankroll, how much loss should I be prepared to absorb/ withstand before it turns around...

Is a bankroll of $300 a daylarge enough to make any headway...?

You are tying your own hands when you assign a "daily bankroll", instead of a TOTAL bankroll. Why tell yourself that you have $300 to bet for the day...when you know that all the days are not the same? In my own play, there are days when I bet more than $5,000...and other days when I bet less than $500. How could I function properly if I tell myself beforehand that I have a pre-set bankroll for every day's play?

The main purpose of an adequate bankroll is to stave off "desperation"...so we could be as "unemotional" as possible during the (long?) strings of losses that are sure to occur from time to time. The only way the player can retain his composure and wager the "right way" under pressure is if his TOTAL bankroll is adequate for the task. A $300 daily bankroll tells us nothing about whether or not you are adequately capitalized...unless we know how many $300 daily bankrolls you hold in reserve for your horseplaying venture.

If you are a competent player, and have confidence in your gambling ability, then forget about these "daily bankrolls"..IMO. Raise a total bankroll that you don't need to rely on for your immediate needs...and decide on a proper bet-size in accordance to the size of the bankroll, and the inherent risk of the wagers that you plan to make. If you are unsure about the initial bet-size of your wagers...then err on the side of caution, and make the bet-size even smaller that you think it should be. Underbetting your bankroll in the early stages of your player-development is a lot better than overbetting it.

At the track, every day is different, so...why should all the "daily bankrolls" be the same? Bet more on the days when you find more bets...and less on the days when the good bets are scarce.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You are tying your own hands when you assign a "daily bankroll", instead of a TOTAL bankroll. Why tell yourself that you have $300 to bet for the day...when you know that all the days are not the same? In my own play, there are days when I bet more than $5,000...and other days when I bet less than $500. How could I function properly if I tell myself beforehand that I have a pre-set bankroll for every day's play?

The main purpose of an adequate bankroll is to stave off "desperation"...so we could be as "unemotional" as possible during the (long?) strings of losses that are sure to occur from time to time. The only way the player can retain his composure and wager the "right way" under pressure is if his TOTAL bankroll is adequate for the task. A $300 daily bankroll tells us nothing about whether or not you are adequately capitalized...unless we know how many $300 daily bankrolls you hold in reserve for your horseplaying venture.

If you are a competent player, and have confidence in your gambling ability, then forget about these "daily bankrolls"..IMO. Raise a total bankroll that you don't need to rely on for your immediate needs...and decide on a proper bet-size in accordance to the size of the bankroll, and the inherent risk of the wagers that you plan to make. If you are unsure about the initial bet-size of your wagers...then err on the side of caution, and make the bet-size even smaller that you think it should be. Underbetting your bankroll in the early stages of your player-development is a lot better than overbetting it. At the track, every day is different, so...why should all the "daily bankrolls" be the same? Bet more on the days when you find more bets...and less on the days when the good bets are scarce.

Thanks Thask, what you say here makes tons of sense, and I now realized that my thinking about a "bankroll" was totally wrong....One thing I do know is that I am NOT adequately capitalized. I have no large BANKROLL at all that I have dedicated for horseplaying purposes...to have a BANKROLL would mean that I tacitly accept that I will not rely upon these funds for other purposes and acknowledge the very real possibility that this BANKROLL will be lost through gambling on horses...this is a truth that I tend not to look at directly (like staring at the Sun) although if you add up my losses for the year it might shock me how much the total loss actually was

That is probably the reason I don't keep records, the truth can be quite, well, ugly...But I do have some ideas for next year that I would like to share with you....

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Thanks Thask, what you say here makes tons of sense, and I now realized that my thinking about a "bankroll" was totally wrong....One thing I do know is that I am NOT adequately capitalized. I have no large BANKROLL at all that I have dedicated for horseplaying purposes... to have a BANKROLL would mean that I tacitly accept that I will not rely upon these funds for other purposes and acknowledge the very real possibility that this BANKROLL will be lost through gambling on horses...this is a truth that I tend not to look at directly (like staring at the Sun) although if you add up my losses for the year it might shock me how much the total loss actually was

That is probably the reason I don't keep records, the truth can be quite, well, ugly...But I do have some ideas for next year that I would like to share with you....

Your starting bankroll needn't be "large"; the vital thing is that it must really be SEPARATE from any other money that you need for your daily existence. I know more than a few horseplayers who carry THOUSANDS of dollars in their pocket every day...but they play like paupers because they really need this money for other things...in spite of what they publicly say.

This being the era of the $1 exacta...you can play this game the "right way", even with a "small" starting bankroll. It's just that, what you lack in initial funds...you will need to make up in PATIENCE. Don't fall into the trap of harboring large expectations when your bankroll is small. The game isn't going anywhere...and there is really no need to "hurry". Bring your game up to acceptable standards...set up a small starting bankroll...and build it up over time. And the self-confidence that you will gain as a result will be worth even more than the bankroll that you will eventually grow. Take my word for it.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I tend to see that there are 2 sides to this...the handicapping, and the wagering. If a person doesn't wager correctly, then the handicapping, no matter how good, won't be enough to gain any traction. That said, I have resolved to focus for a time on the wagering aspects...

...And then I stall out, what next...? What are the important questions to ask yourself...?

WPS
Horizontal
Vertical

My bankroll is $300 per race day....What amount of profit should I be aiming for on a consistent basis...?

I guess I need to make a decision to be a grinder or swing for the fences and absorb short terms losses...at $300 a day bankroll, how much loss should I be prepared to absorb/ withstand before it turns around...

Is a bankroll of $300 a daylarge enough to make any headway...?

VTG,

I have moved toward P3, P4 and P5. I only play the big mutual tracks on both coasts and rarely make straight bets anymore. I have a few friends that play the tri's and supers but I am terrible at it.

I have learned after many years of wagering ineffectively to be patient as Robert states. Play those races you really feel strongly about and only watch the others to gather any purposeful information.

My example is today. I thought the 8th at SA was a lock which would mean a straight bet. I had set out to make a large wager for me, $300 to win, yet thought I might also make a string wager for a higher return. I still made a healthy win bet but I thought the 9th may be a single so instead of playing a $.50 P4 I raised it to a $1 P4 singling the last 2. In this case it won and I got back over $1300.00 on a $20 bet.

My point is that I was patient which I could not do 10 years ago and it paid off today in a nice way. Doesn't always but I am seeing better results sticking to these ideals.

GL

[jay68802]

At this moment, I have found 2 horses that I want to play at Laurel on Monday. They are in the 7th and 8th races. Right now I know I am going to spend any where from $20.00 to $400.00 on those races. I am going to watch the races before that and try to get a feel for how the track is playing. Track conditions are going to be a part of how I play those races. The horse in the 7th is a horse that from experience, can be used vertically in that race. The horse in the 8th should be played as a win bet or a key in doubles or pick 3's. If speed is dying, the horse in the 8th should be ignored. I have already figured out the other horses in each race that I will also use. It's a large list, scratches and track conditions will help in shortening it. Right now this is all I can do. Another part of this is going to be the Double will pays from the 6th to 7th race. They will give me a idea of what I can expect in the 7th race. So as it sits now, I have a general plan of attack.

In the 7th race, the other horses I am thinking of using are listed by running style and morning line odds. If I am lucky and see a bias, then the horses that will be helped by the bias and have the highest odds become the focus of the bets. If it is a fair track, I have more work to do.

Only half the work is done but the basis is in place.

Select your horse.
Figure out what type of bets your selection fits.
Make a plan now, not a 3 min till post.
Narrow your bets down by track conditions, running style, then by odds.
Pray you can spot a bias track