And down we go

[ultracapper]

Been handicapping SoCal for about 17 years now. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses go from $10K to $8K, and then to $6,250. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses on the turf go from $40k to $25K. I've seen the lowest maiden claiming price for older horses go from $25K to $20K, and now Sunday, January 21, 2018, 6th race, go to $16K.

I hope I'm dead before the $5K maiden claimer comes to Santa Anita.

Edit: Seriously, I had to read the conditions 3 times to make sure I was reading it right.

[oughtoh]

I remember when the lowest claiming was $12,500. So it has been cut in half. Can't wait till it gets cut in half again. That is like Thursday, 5 mdn races out of 8 races. It is a waste of my time to even a form on those days.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Been handicapping SoCal for about 17 years now. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses go from $10K to $8K, and then to $6,250. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses on the turf go from $40k to $25K. I've seen the lowest maiden claiming price for older horses go from $25K to $20K, and now Sunday, January 21, 2018, 6th race, go to $16K.

I hope I'm dead before the $5K maiden claimer comes to Santa Anita.

Edit: Seriously, I had to read the conditions 3 times to make sure I was reading it right.

its a good time to switch to OP-much better product w/bigger fields

[VigorsTheGrey]

I wonder if we are now going to see the "LosAlamitoization" of Santa Anita over the next several years where the majority of the racehorse ownership undergoes an "identity transformation"...?

[Tom]

Those $5K maiden claimers are running there now .....for $16K.

[upthecreek]

http://www.drf.com/news/handle-sharp...s=mcnewsletter

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

Those $5K maiden claimers are running there now .....for $16K.

The truth to this statement is scary.

[cj]

They have so few horses they can't afford to lose the bad ones to GG, TuP, and wherever else they might look for a win.

[GMB@BP]

Handle may be up do to a really good cards and a bunch of cancellations but this weeks cards are abysmal.

I may try some Sat but Fri and Sun are so bad I didnt even bother downloading the PP.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

http://www.drf.com/news/handle-sharp...s=mcnewsletter

Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything. It's coincidental that I'm doing a study on my 2017 bets and race conditions that I handicap. I'll share it when I'm done. But preliminary results show field size trumps quality when generating handle and ultimate win/place prices. That's probably not a surprise to anybody, but I think the results of what I'm looking at will show a pronounced appreciation for larger fields. Another thing that is coming to light is reduced racing days, with more races on those days. The 3 day race weeks Santa Anita had last year, with the 10 and 11 race cards, blew away the 8 race, Thursday-Sunday schedule in relation to win prices, per-race handle and on-track per gambler handle. A number of those 8 race cards saw handle as low as $80 per attendant. Some of those 11 race cards were as high as $300 per on-track patron. Los Al, even with it's quality/size of fields, which are both comparatively poor, had Santa Anita-like on-track per-patron betting numbers on days with 2 or 3 additional races. On week days, there are usually less than 1000 on site at Los Al, but they are there to bet, as they had days of over $400 bet per patron on-track. When the weekend came and they would add a race or 2, the attendance would go up, which is a sign of the more casual gambler attending, but the handle would still be nearly $300 per person on-track, right in line with a 10 race card at Santa Anita. DelMar can't compete with either on a per-patron basis, as a lot of DelMar's attendants are there for the experience rather than to hard-core gamble. Still, DelMar is regularly over $100 per head.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything. It's coincidental that I'm doing a study on my 2017 bets and race conditions that I handicap. I'll share it when I'm done. But preliminary results show field size trumps quality when generating handle and ultimate win/place prices. That's probably not a surprise to anybody, but I think the results of what I'm looking at will show a pronounced appreciation for larger fields. Another thing that is coming to light is reduced racing days, with more races on those days. The 3 day race weeks Santa Anita had last year, with the 10 and 11 race cards, blew away the 8 race, Thursday-Sunday schedule in relation to win prices, per-race handle and on-track per gambler handle. A number of those 8 race cards saw handle as low as $80 per attendant. Some of those 11 race cards were as high as $300 per on-track patron. Los Al, even with it's quality/size of fields, which are both comparatively poor, had Santa Anita-like on-track per-patron betting numbers on days with 2 or 3 additional races. On week days, there are usually less than 1000 on site at Los Al, but they are there to bet, as they had days of over $400 bet per patron on-track. When the weekend came and they would add a race or 2, the attendance would go up, which is a sign of the more casual gambler attending, but the handle would still be nearly $300 per person on-track, right in line with a 10 race card at Santa Anita. DelMar can't compete with either on a per-patron basis, as a lot of DelMar's attendants are there for the experience rather than to hard-core gamble. Still, DelMar is regularly over $100 per head.

If I am going to bet cheaper races I would likely take my money somewhere else other then SA, would imagine it would be easier to find inefficiencies elsewhere.

[ultracapper]

I think you'll be surprised. Casual gamblers are attracted to the marquis meets. They are the ones that bet the less informed money. DelMar is a literal gold mine if you're betting on horses. When Santa Anita fills the fields and offers an extended card, it allows the more casual player the opportunity to "make a day of it", and it shows in the win prices.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything.

Field size is important, but it certainly isn't everything for bettors. If it was EvD and DeD would be the kings of racing I'd guess. There is a balance between field size and quality.

[ultracapper]

Agree. It has to be admitted that quality cards, with a marquis race, or a menu of multiple stake races, are very attractive to the general betting public. Even if those particular races aren't overly competitive.

Nothing beats a popular horse and/or race.

[oughtoh]

If I am going to bet cheap races it will not be at SA. There are plenty of cheap tracks around.