*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[TJC]

Hey Greg,

Just downloaded the Saturday file for Los Al TB. You gotta check out the ability rating for C Chrome and how much it is compared to the rest of the field.

TJC

[NorCalGreg]

Nothing in my tip jar yet.....I said I need a new roof dammit! I thought horseplayers helped each other out in time of need? Huh?

I probably have that mixed up with cops or something.....Horseplayers rip each other OFF in times of need---THEIR NEED! That's what it was.

I'll get my roof if I have to get up there myself and do it. (think that's what my wife is expecting anyway) It looks easy enough. I figure I'll just tear off what's there now---see what was underneath everything...take samples down to the roofing supply and ask for enough to cover my roof. Good ol' yankee ingenuity.

First I'll do some research on you tube, etc---really those tutorials are a godsend. I once lost my cellphone charger...looked up on the 'net what to do about it---found a you tube vid of some 9 yr old kid demonstrating how to charge your cell phone--if you lost your charger! In about 5 minutes my cellie was charged and I was on the phone.

There is one channel I watch that is so funny called Superwoman
https://www.youtube.com/user/IISuperwomanII

I happened to see some weird "Last Supper" pics. This one doesn't have a name I just called it "Heroin Last Supper"...it has dead rock stars. I circled a few I didn't recognize--but later on I realized one is just a bad rendition of Kurt Cobain.

The more I read about Kurt Cobain--the less impressed I am with him. Sorry, just the way it is. Reverse the roles--he would say the same about me, I'm sure.
The other people circled still don't know who they are...that one guy in the front I'm positive is Buddy Holly...but tell me he isn't a dead ringer for Elvis Costello? Speaking of Elvis--Why is the King way on the end, and the so-called Lizard King in the middle?
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[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

... I circled a few I didn't recognize--but later on I realized one is just a bad rendition of Kurt Cobain.

...

I had a hard time deciding if it was Keith Richards, Mick Jones, Bob Dylan, or the winning answer, which I realized when it dawned on me that they are all dead - but between Marley and Morrison has to be Sid Vicious.

[Racetrack Playa]

Big Pun behind Buddy Holly
And Brian Jones on the cigtree

GL Yall

NCG spend that Money, Get A Experienced ROOFER, its safer,and cheaper(long Run)

"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."
Hunter S Thompson

[NorCalGreg]

LOL...Keith Richards has been mistaken for dead before. That "artist" is pretty bad...Tupac looks like the old black man from "The Shining"

TJC....I just took a look at the Cali Chrome race @ Los Al Sat...I haven't seen a mismatch like that, at least on paper---in a long time wow!

hrome qualifies for the 1-92 angle, EARLY/LATE, LONE SPEED, ABILITY GAP, and don't forget---LONE CLASS DROPPER ANGLE with all that he'll probably lose...some will bet him just for the commemorative ticket. Hey someone bet two bucks on him and mail me the ticket--I'll pay ya back
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[NorCalGreg]

I mentioned we have a brand spankin' new EXOTIC program. It's cool and most of all it's fun. I played it this way today---$1 three horse tri boxes--based on prime power. I could have used top power....or T/J%...or Ability. I could have played pick-4's or whatever.

Anyway here goes:

AQUEDUCT if in fact they run today

All $1 boxes= $6 apiece

1ST

2ND

3RD

4TH

5TH

6TH

7TH

8TH

9TH

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Racetrack Playa

Big Pun behind Buddy Holly
And Brian Jones on the cigtree

GL Yall

NCG spend that Money, Get A Experienced ROOFER, its safer,and cheaper(long Run)

"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."
Hunter S Thompson

I hear you, Playa.....I told my wife I was gonna go get that stuff they show on the TV commercial--the turn a boat on it's side and shoot a shotgun through the bottom. Then they spray this black rubbery sh*t all over it and magically the boat now floats with no leaks--THAT'S what I told my wife I was gonna fix the roof with--about 40 cans of that.

Really, this Vietnamese guy came over and told me what all needed to be done. Those are really good people--the Vietnamese. They came here to this country with the clothes on their back and a bag of rice...and now they have nice homes and businesses, they don't cause anyone any trouble....and the hardest working people you'll ever meet..

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

LOL....Tupac looks like the old black man from "The Shining"

...

I was going to ask if Marvin Hagler was really dead and what he had to do with any of this so thanks for heading that off.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I was going to ask if Marvin Hagler was really dead and what he had to do with any of this so thanks for heading that off.

haha Marvelous Marvin Haglerrrrrrrrrrrrr

Only found two Lone Class Droppers today (besides Chrome)--both @ Hawthorne

5TH THUNDER DOWN UNDER 15-1

8TH PLAINS WARRIOR 5-1

--and three speed plays @ the speediest track in America--Los Alamitos, although I'm not sure about today since Cali got a bunch of rain up and down the coast.

Just checked--no rain down by Long Beach, not raining here either.

All bets are back on for LRC.

1ST BROTHER SOLDIER 8-1

5TH PRIVATE TERRACE 12-1

7TH ATASCADERAN 7-2

Later doods--NCG

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

FYI We are asshole buddies,NCG knows I'm kidding We talk everyday outside this forum
At least he was a paid advertiser

Did you not notice the at the end of my post? It was a joke Francis...lighten up

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Gets left in a tangle and last throughout, swings about 445 wide, and finishes about a length and a half short of second place. Fifth at the end. You never saw him again after the top of the turn until the wire since he was in the outer third of the track apparently passing most everyone and galloping out past all but the winner. Getting closer.

The old soon-to-be eleven-year-old gray My T Quick is back in today and though seems to me to be sitting on a big effort off his last, he comes back not only pretty quickly, but in a ridiculous spot. Granted he has four wins (in stakes on the fairs) in 2016, but he still has a couple of good conditions to run in and they fire right back in an open claimer and skip all that condition silliness. I really don't get it but they're making it really hard on me to sit here and not drive down and oblige them of their offer of a horse sitting on a win in the right spot on a day when he's almost guaranteed to retain those conditions.

[NorCalGreg]

I didn't even get to bet or handicap or anything today, so missed out on the festivities at Turf Paradise, Los Al, AQ etc.

Been hearing whispers that Steve W was onto something with his 35 day return on those LONGSHOT-2 plays. I've been seeing them scoring back even quicker---like within 24 DAYS! Greenie is doing some research on those--I've been looking at SINGLE CLASS DROPPERS and LONE-SPEED 2 plays.

I like to sort out a track afterwards---give me an idea of what's going on. Was a Longshot-2 play.....WAR STORY He got a little "help" at the windows from "knowledgeable" folks.

And NO I don't think I could possibly be the only one in the world that could see War Story was a standout, even though the ML maker generously made him 10-1. His last two--in which he did nothing--his odds totaled about 150-1..so naturally he goes off here @ 3-1 in a dist and track he's never won at, and wins....and no one bats an eye. Even with the perennially overbet money burner UNBRIDLED JUAN in the mix.
All part of the game, my friends.

Like I said though---I usually make my bets in the AM, but didn't get a chance to do anything and missed out on even that one .

One thing that really ticks me off...is from well...I'll be polite here and just call them losing pricks....who just think it's the most ridiculous thing they've ever heard of---that I would handicap ---and base a software program mainly on--a horse's LAST PACELINE.

Granted, this program was begun with low-level claimers in mind...but I've developed and tweaked it--so it would be a useful tool at any track. I'm more comfortable at Turf Paradise than Churchill Downs...but can hold my own.
I've shown this before...here's a way to look at a track BEFORE and AFTER. Even those naysaying closed-minded clowns could see what a standout WAR STORY was...and most of the other winners @ Aqueduct---with their last paceline and the included basic handicapping tools.

Any "experts" going back 4-5 pacelines have any comments---let's hear them.
CLICK TOP-2 POWER--THEN SORT BY ABILITY. I had 15 contenders--the 15th was scratched. Don't bother looking further, it's distorted after that. Notice how many winners are back in less than 30? Also, the absolute necessity for early-speed is simply a reflection of this track. So...you actually can learn quite a bit from just the last paceline
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[ReplayRandall]

Very entertaining post, Greg......Losing pricks, experts, knowledgeable folks, etc.....All in a day's work, just win baby...

[NorCalGreg]

Hey Randall. Why, I say, I declare...I do regret not following proper decorum sometimes---with the vulgar language and name calling - but what the heck.

I just noticed you're from Charlotte, NC. Interesting...I think I've been there briefly if you have an Air Base there. I went on leave for a couple weeks, before deploying to Germany--proceeded to go on about a 13 day righteous drunk.
I remember very little until I came out of a blackout in a c-41, or a Huey, or whatever they called those big ass planes---over some body of water. Only reason I remember that much is because they don't serve any liquor on military flights....(as you know) and I just then began to sober up. In the haze I think someone said we flew from Charlotte....or maybe his wife's name was Charlotte. Or his name was Huey. Remember-- I wasn't a real gun totin' fighting man--I was a cook. A drunk cook.

Did learn to fire an M-16 and night fired an M-60 w/tracers....blow you and your car up in 3 seconds (in between sips). Everyone in the military does that..cooks, medics, clerks....even Infantrymen

There was a cook at Pearl Harbor...happened to be a black cook, his ship was under attack--he ran on deck and jumped on one of those big guns and shot down a bunch of enemy planes. He learned to shoot that thing in boot camp, and won a medal of honor. THAT'S why everyone in the military learns to shoot that sh*t. Also why they learn the discipline to do something like that.

Anyway...The reason I began to post this, before Randall interrupted me

-was to show my "artist's rendition" of PACE VIEW EXOTIC This software is very cool (the artist is myself, BTW) ..It's about 80% complete--a few buttons to add and such. It did nail the late pick-4 TWICE in two separate "modes" @ Aqueduct yesterday. The modes were ABILITY & T/J%.

You have to know ABILITY is gonna be big. Like I said previously, we're a couple weeks out or less on this...it will be $35 digital download, $40 CD Hard disk-shipped US Mail...uses the same $1 files you already use with PLATINUM. No recurring fees. This is what it will sort of look like ---I took what we have now--added some goodies and sent it back to Steve
It won't look EXACTLY like this---but you get the idea:

[NorCalGreg]

I imagine the ABILITY and T/J will be better for the later races at most tracks--due to those usually being the higher-class feature races. You'll have to experiment at your tracks and find out your preference.

Especially simu players--I can see this being popular. Look for plays with a price or two wedged in there. Keep an eye on the ol' bankroll.

Here are the late p-4 winners from AQ yesterday late: