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Old 08-07-2016, 01:14 PM   #61
reckless
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Originally Posted by Waquoit
I don't know about that. A linemaker is like an umpire; if you don't notice them, they're doing a good job. I'm noticing something everyday. What about Lady Lara in the last on Saturday? 8-1 morning line, goes off at 3-1 2nd choice and wins pretty easily.
Would you feel the same if Lady Lara went off at her 3-1 odds yesterday and then ran up the track? And would that affect your opinion at all if you knew that Lady Lara was in foal yesterday? She is.

The good MLO makers just might make it a point to ignore any and all racetrack info and gossip. Just sayin'.
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Old 08-07-2016, 01:50 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisVOX
I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!
It shows a LOT OF CLASS for you to come on here and post Travis.

You are doing a Blanken great job and you know I am not a brown noser.

Keep up the GREAT job and have fun doing it. You are an ASSET!
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Old 08-07-2016, 02:30 PM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisVOX
I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!
you made a great line on Motts horse today, Pletcher is going to be less than even money to the race.
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Old 08-07-2016, 02:43 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
you made a great line on Motts horse today, Pletcher is going to be less than even money to the race.
Interestingly, that's what I've heard today too. We'll see.
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Old 08-07-2016, 02:58 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisVOX
I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!
You're a class act. I hope your career continues to go well.
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Old 08-07-2016, 03:23 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisVOX
I'm going to end up missing one today too... Mott's 2yo MSW I made 4-1 and I'm told we're looking at something-to-5. I went the wrong direction on the horse, it happens. Lady Lara's was probably too high to begin with but with three scratches in the race (worth 17.2 points on the line, her drop was worth 13) a lot can change.

That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds!

It's been fun though. If anyone is on Twitter, I'm constantly having back/forth conversations with folks about it. There are some awful people in cyberspace, but for the most part the discourse is civil and fun, so if you're on there throughout the day, join in!
Hey Travis, I was with you and Nick Tammaro on the original NY boards. So proud of what you guys are doing, keep up the good work, all your past hard work is coming to fruition!
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Old 08-07-2016, 03:47 PM   #67
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Travis,

You did a good job with the ML. 4 is the FAV as you thought.

9 is NOT something to 5....

EMD4ME

P.S. was bet to 9/5 after my post (from 5/2)

Last edited by EMD4ME; 08-07-2016 at 03:52 PM.
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Old 08-07-2016, 03:51 PM   #68
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And for gravy and justification, the 4 wins! Way to go Travis!
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Old 08-07-2016, 04:23 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by TravisVOX
... That aside, I appreciate all the kind words from everyone. It's an extremely challenging gig. Yesterday's Test is an example. Off the Tracks was, in my opinion, the deserving ML favorite. She was quite ignored in the betting. In fact, given how she ran, her 5-2 off odds were a serious overlay. There was nothing out there that would have lead me to believe she would drift so high. As a result, the money went from her to Lightstream who I made 8-1. Their swing in odds (in terms of points) is nearly identical.

And for every Lady Lara or Lighstream, there are the six horses in the Whitney who went off at, virtually, their ML odds! ...
I never understood the complaints but, I do appreciate your above comment even though it's after which is just fine with me. It's nice to see some reasons why you did what you did. And, I realize it may lose some value if done every day but I can see some value and interest to me in how one analyzes or viewed the race before it happens given the info available at the time. Which is one reason I enjoy encouraging people to discuss how they would bet a race. Everyone has their opinion and it's interesting to compare.
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Old 08-07-2016, 05:41 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
you made a great line on Motts horse today, Pletcher is going to be less than even money to the race.
obviously i don't know anything either. i thought the Pletcher horse was going to be 3/5, the race that AMAPOLA came out of in Gulfstream was on the weak side yet the horse did run lights out today.

this game does have a way of making of fool out of you!
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Old 08-07-2016, 06:03 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer
Jon White has been making the morning line at Santa Anita for many years. Before him it was Jeff Tufts.

Don't know when the switch was made. Both excellent IMO.
I thought Russell Hudak was the morning line guy for the Cal circuit. Is he still around?
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Old 08-07-2016, 10:01 PM   #72
Robes
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Originally Posted by the little guy
Really, dude, was this necessary?
Bush league tracks where the hot dog sellers usually double as morning line makers have better morning lines than SAR Travis should stick to race calling

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/re...695#msg-103695

Last edited by Robes; 08-07-2016 at 10:04 PM.
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Old 08-07-2016, 10:31 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Robes
Bush league tracks where the hot dog sellers usually double as morning line makers have better morning lines than SAR Travis should stick to race calling

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/re...695#msg-103695

Thanks for that ridiculous contribution.
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Old 08-07-2016, 10:37 PM   #74
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Travis is doing a stellar job, not easy to make a ML when many fields come up with 6+ contenders.

Z
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Old 08-08-2016, 12:09 AM   #75
Robes
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Thanks for that ridiculous contribution.
You're welcome anytime.
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