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Old 05-03-2022, 09:17 PM   #16
Bennie
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I have him covered in pool 3 boxed with the field from that pool which includes Messier, Taiba, Crown Pride and Tiz the Bomb. And a straight Messier/Smile Happy exacta from pool 5. That's enough action for me on him.
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Old 05-03-2022, 09:37 PM   #17
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Don't let me change your mind because I've changed mine 3 times since yesterday.

I'm searching for flawed short priced horses to key against and long priced horses that are better than they look to use in the verticals, but there's no one I really hate among the major contenders and no longshots I think are clearly better than people think. It's a tough race for me to take any strong stands. I'm still at the thinking out loud stage.
Ok along these lines, what do you think of Tawny Port and Tiz the Bomb.
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Old 05-03-2022, 10:03 PM   #18
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Ok along these lines, what do you think of Tawny Port and Tiz the Bomb.
I played Tawny Port last out. I think he’s below the best horses but should get a good pace setup. So I guess he could get a minor piece. IMO, he’d have to move forward quite a bit to win.

Tiz The Bomb looks more like a synthetic and grass horse to me.
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Old 05-03-2022, 11:25 PM   #19
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Tiz The Bomb looks more like a synthetic and grass horse to me.
Yeah, the connections seem to think so too. However, Paddy O Prado comes to mind. He was a turf horse, still hit the board. Improving BRIS figs and CR last 3 races as he stretched out in distance and the races got tougher. Can he move forward one more time off the Jeff Ruby win? I might use him in the bottom of my trifectas. But then again, I'm not sure what happened in the Holy Bull.
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Old 05-04-2022, 08:56 AM   #20
metro
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IMO Zandon was better than Smile Happy in the Risen Star, beat him in the subsequent Blue Grass, and seems to be ready for a peak for Chad Brown. So it's obvious why Zandon is a shorter price than Smile Happy.

However, imo they might be a "little" closer than it looks.

IMO the track was not particularly kind to up close horses Blue Grass day at KEE. It was similar the next day. Smile Happy may have actually been at a disadvantage being closer up and moving first that day. But we know he'll have no trouble being further back and closing if the Derby pace requires it and may get first run on Zandon again.

I'm not saying he will turn the tables, but I'm not sure one deserves to be 3-1 and the other 20-1.
Thought Bluegrass day was a rough day to get a handle on how the dirt races played, especially the routes. Sloppy early, good by the BG. Thought speed in the route race after the BG did well fwiw.

Agree that the m/l shouldn't be that wide apart and think 20-1 is more logical on Smile Happy. Zandon just seems to have another gear and while I like Lanerie as a jockey, and would love to see him get a Derby win, he's just not on the level of Prat.

Last edited by metro; 05-04-2022 at 08:58 AM.
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Old 05-04-2022, 02:40 PM   #21
boys at tosconova
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20-1 is another bad ML for smile happy. horse should still get ignored at the windows but here are some things to like should you use in exotics.

it wouldn't be a bad ML if most of the non fig horses were made over 40/50-1

tawny and tiz are two very easy tosses in the race

Last edited by boys at tosconova; 05-04-2022 at 02:51 PM.
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