Don't like most of the chalk, except the
. Ran well in last two, rated solidly higher than this one, also with fast paces. Has the right running style for this. He's my top choice and I'll pay the price for him.
The other chalks have hair on them. Biggest threat is the
, but he didn't do much at this level going longer and I don't see him preferring shorter. Maybe this is a prep for him. Brown will take money.
Just not digging the outside post, pace profile, and first of the layoff for
. He projects to be running back with others that have more late.
Also dubious at the distance is
. I think he needs a U.S. race. And his TFUS figs don't measure up. Brown will take money in the meantime.
My second choice is
. Like the late pace profile and he's projected well up from the back. Trainer angles good for the time off and route to sprint. Probably will be overlooked a little. Seems as well bred for this as anything.
A little weak on first turf, but trainer patterns otherwise look good for
. Seems likely enough to take to the grass. Not in my top tier and I prefer the other 10/1, but a shot to hit the board that I might use accordingly.
My third choice is
. Good trainer patterns and should excel at the distance. Lack of sprint form should buoy the price. This is the one I want from the back running late.
A sketchier proposition I'm willing to play is
. Third and fourth races back put it right in the mix, but that was more than a year ago and last two were less inspiring. Second off the layoff might be the catalyst for this one to score.
I think I'll have to leave the
off my tickets. I know he's sprinted on the grass but doesn't really seem like his strong suit. He scratched out of the dirt stakes yesterday for this; maybe he should have taken his chances there. He'll get more pace here for a late run but others seem more likely to prevail from the back.
Hard to see 8-year-old
wiring or stalk-and-pouncing these, pass.
Also hard to see
holding off the closers. Back class on dirt, but highly dubious that transfers to turf—solo try at that does not inspire confidence. Nor the layoff period. Pass.
won some lesser turf sprints on this circuit last year but others with the pace profile look stronger and there's no trainer angle to go on. Toss.
Probably box my top three
in the exacta and try to include the
in deeper verticals.
Jakarta, at first glance looks way outclassed here especially being a girl facing the boys, but wondering if she can get a lead here from the inside post and hold on for a slice.
