HandiFast/Fast/Woods/RC Derby 137 selections

[Hoofless_Wonder]

It's been a while since I've run Handi's and Doug's fine tools, but I've decided for this Derby, I need all the help I can get. Looks like Soldat is the common link:

HandiFast v2.1:

Dialed In - fair odds - 6.4, 100 points
Comma to the Top - fair odds - 6.4, 100 points
Soldat - fair odds - 6.4, 100 points
Master of Hounds - fair odds - 7.4, 100 points
(weighted more for late pace)

Version vX1 of Fast:

Dialed In - fast - 97
Soldat - fast - 96
Master of Hounds - 95
Stay Thirsty - 94
Decisive Moment - 94

Version 1 of Wood's Ratings:

Soldat - 108.4
Dialed In - 104.3
Shackleford - 101.7
Comma to the Top - 98.6

Version 1.0 of Report Card:

Shackleford - 923
Soldat - 745
Midnight Interlude - 717
Comma to the Top - 667

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Oops. One correction. Master of Hounds, , gets 90 points with Handifast......

[douglasw32]

COOL!

Here is my newest mess that I have been using.


Race #11 for 3 Year Olds , KyDerby-G1, going 10.0f, on Dirt @ (6:24)/5:24/4:24/3:24
================================================== ============================
124 (01) ARCHARCHARCH , P 4 , FIRES WILLIAM H 16% , COURT J K 40% , 10-1 (21)
119 (02) BRILLIANT SPEED , P 2 , ALBERTRANI THOMAS 21% , ROSARIO JOEL 24% , 30-1 (21)
110 (03) TWICE THE APPEAL , P 2 , BONDE JEFF 28% , BOREL C H 17% , 20-1 (41)
127 (04) STAY THIRSTY , E/P 2 , PLETCHER TODD A 26% , DOMINGUEZ R A 29% , 20-1 (34)
120 (05) DECISIVE MOMENT , E 8 , ARIAS JUAN D 10% , CLARK K D 15% , 30-1 (42)
125 (06) COMMA TO THE TOP , E 7 , MILLER PETER 17% , VALENZUELA P A 28% , 30-1 (28)
120 (07) PANTS ON FIRE , E/P 5 , BREEN KELLY J 22% , NAPRAVNIK ANNA R 21% , 20-1 (42)
127 (08) DIALED IN , S 2 , ZITO NICHOLAS P 27% , LEPAROUX JULIEN R 23% , 4-1 (34)
118 (09) DERBY KITTEN , P 2 , MAKER MICHAEL J 27% , CASTELLANO J J 20% , 30-1 (14)
119 (10) TWINSPIRED , P 2 , MAKER MICHAEL J 25% , SMITH M E 17% , 30-1 (21)
076 (11) MASTER OF HOUNDS , S 1 , O'BRIEN AIDAN P 8% , GOMEZ G K 20% , 30-1 (42)
118 (12) SANTIVA , E/P 4 , KENNEALLY EDDIE 25% , BRIDGMOHAN S X 22% , 30-1 (21)
125 (13) MUCHO MACHO MAN , E/P 6 , RITVO KATHY P 9% , MARAGH RAJIV 13% , 12-1 (42)
129 (14) SHACKLEFORD , E 6 , ROMANS DALE 14% , CASTANON J L 20% , 12-1 (34)
125 (15) MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE , E/P 6 , BAFFERT BOB 32% , ESPINOZA V 14% , 10-1 (28)
122 (16) ANIMAL KINGDOM , P 3 , MOTION H GRAHAM 22% , VELAZQUEZ J R 45% , 30-1 (42)
134 (17) SOLDAT , E/P 5 , MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P 33% , GARCIA A 22% , 12-1 (34)
133 (18) UNCLE MO , E/P 7 , PLETCHER TODD A 28% , VELAZQUEZ J R 28% , 4.5-1 (28)
123 (19) NEHRO , S 3 , ASMUSSEN STEVEN M 23% , NAKATANI C S 31% , 6-1 (21)
119 (20) WATCH ME GO , E/P 3 , O'CONNELL KATHLEEN 21% , BEJARANO R 24% , 50-1 (28)

[douglasw32]

Combined With ALLDATA's Black Box Rank....

14 SHACKLEFORD = 149
8 DIALED IN = 143
17 SOLDAT = 142
15 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE = 132

19 NEHRO

[douglasw32]

And with HHX ver 2.1
But using the export from TRC

8-Dialed In
6-Comma to the top
17-Soldat
2-Brilliant Speed

[douglasw32]

8-17-14-6 (15)

In no particular order looks like the consensus.

And 11-Mater of hounds since the programs would never rank that one correctly is an unknown.

[BIG HIT]

Find all very interesting if had better computer skill's would have down loaded all-Data but rather spend more time hdcping.I have hhv7.1 and hhv2.1 you guys are great thanks agian

[BIG HIT]

Have handifast7.1 this is why i stay with simple programs like yours samle learning curve big fun.

[raybo]

I didn't download the Derby file until Saturday morning and didn't start looking at it until around noon, but could see right away that the race was unplayable, IMO.

There were just too many E/Ps in the race. I figured Shackleford would take the early lead, but had no idea how many of the E/Ps would contest him.

The PPG, of course, pointed "late", but there were several late horses that could have been there at the end.

My pre-race grade order, using a consensus of just basic middle and late velocity CPRs, was:

2,9,10,19,1,15,20/6

Animal Kingdom was basically a non-contender, for the win.

Needless to say, I didn't play the race, just too many variables, and too many horses that could have won the race. I had no strong feeling for any horse, to win, therefore, a play was not even considered.

[Kelso]

Originally Posted by raybo

My pre-race grade order, using a consensus of just basic middle and late velocity CPRs, was:

2,9,10,19,1,15,20/6

Raybo,
Is "grade order" an output of your automated system? I ask because, by hand, my rank order was 2,9,19,6. (Of course, only the #9 did his job. )

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Kelso

Raybo,
Is "grade order" an output of your automated system? I ask because, by hand, my rank order was 2,9,19,6. (Of course, only the #9 did his job. )

No, the order was done manually. I used the same factors that got "Mine That Bird" in the Derby. Just basic Sartin type compound pace ratings, SP, AP, and total. All using AllData's Summary Pace Ratings view.