Pedigree

[PMR]

Can anybody out there suggest a good book on pedigree's? I'm looking for info on sires, and the ability of their offspring for grass, distance, first time start, etc. If possible, I would also be looking for the same info on broodmares. Any assistance would be appreciated.

[Overlay]

A quick perusal of the Gambler's Book Club site yielded the following titles with statistical or text treatments of pedigree:

Dan Serra's Off-Track and Turf Sire Ratings
Dosage: Pedigree and Performance by Steven A. Roman
Exploring Pedigree by Mike Helm
Maiden Stats by Bloodstock Research Services
Pedigree Handicapping by Lauren Stich
Racehorse Breeding Theories by Frank Mitchell
Sire Ratings by Mike Helm
Sire Stats 2005 by TSN

[GaryG]

The best book I have seen on breeding theories is Breeding the Racehorse by Federico Tesio. Tesio bred and also trained Nearco and Ribot at his Donatello Stud in Italy and is probably the most influential breeder of the 20th century.

[GameTheory]

If you're looking for ratings that you can use for handicapping, get Mike Helm's book (Exploring Pedigree) and the latest update of his ratings. They are excellent, and I've found them quite useful beyond even what he recommends them for.

[kitts]

I like the Maiden Stats from BRIS, Helms book and Lauren Stitch's book.

[Valuist]

Remember how popular the dosage angle was not too long ago? Then it seemed like it got shattered a number of times, which is interesting since it seemed like the majority of runners qualified on dosage. Now, I heard somewhere there's an angle that no horse who's dam has the Raise A Native line has ever won the Derby. And both Barbaro and AP Warrior's dams trace to Raise A Native. So considering what happened to the "dosage throw outs" maybe Barbaro and AP Warrior become extra dangerous.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Remember how popular the dosage angle was not too long ago? Then it seemed like it got shattered a number of times, which is interesting since it seemed like the majority of runners qualified on dosage.

Kind of off topic but in the 80's early 90's this was not the case when very few derby runners qualified, in contrast to the last 10 years or so when most all Derby entrants qualify. Remember '82 I think Gato Del Sol was the only qualifer or maybe dual with one or two other dosage wise and he paid 23-1. One of the best years was '90 when the only dosage qualifiers finished 1-2-3 Unbridled-Summer Squal-Pleasant Tap for an over $4000 trifecta if I remember correctly. Possibly there are other pedigree angles out there that equate to dosage success if someone dug deep enough - like your mention of the Raise a Native dam line negative angle.

Always a complaint on dosage is that it does not take into account the dam line in the influence on offspring speed and stamina, only the sire line, tough given someone posted awhile back that in a recent pedigree study (don't remember by whom - Stitch maybe?) that the stamina influence on offspring comes mainly from the dam line. With that said Roman's work is a good read and a nice attempt to quantify pedigree influence on performance and it's hard to argue with the dosage's angle success rate up till the mid 90's or so.

[Valuist]

The changing the numbers after the fact was something I didn't care for. Going back to the early 90s, Strike the Gold didn't qualify on dosage, but they eventually (couple years later) made Alydar a chef de race, so then Strike the Gold became a qualifier. But that didn't help those that tossed Strike the Gold due to dosage, and back then quite a few did as well. In the Belmont, Conquistador Cielo and Creme Fraiche didn't qualify either but after the fact we heard it didn't really count because they were run on off tracks .

BTW, that tri w/Unbridled was a little over $1000 (for $1). I had it but dosage wasn't the reason I hit it.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by Valuist

The changing the numbers after the fact was something I didn't care for. Going back to the early 90s, Strike the Gold didn't qualify on dosage, but they eventually (couple years later) made Alydar a chef de race, so then Strike the Gold became a qualifier. But that didn't help those that tossed Strike the Gold due to dosage, and back then quite a few did as well. In the Belmont, Conquistador Cielo and Creme Fraiche didn't qualify either but after the fact we heard it didn't really count because they were run on off tracks .

BTW, that tri w/Unbridled was a little over $1000 (for $1). I had it but dosage wasn't the reason I hit it.

Valid points on retro fitting numbers and off tracks, never meant to say blindly playing this one angle is the way to go but at one time it was a tool to consider.
The '90 tri was over $4000 at the Jefferson Downs simulcast where I played precomingled pools but thinking about it the minimum play was $3 so more in line with your payout. Sorry to highjack your thread with dosage talk PMR.

[The Judge]

From your post you seem interested in a set of numbers to use in certain situations where normal handicapping might not work. There are lots of
products out there many have already been mentioned here. Nothing wrong with that, but if you dig deeper and study pedigree/breeding /racing history, I think it would be better and more fun you would know why one horses off spring isn't worth a bet until he goes a route of ground or in entered on the turf you would know about the 1st thoroughbreds, what about Stockwell, St. Simon,Galopin,Teddy etc.

I have notice that books on pedigree tend to cost more than other handicapping books but I think its worth the price. A couple of books, A Bred Apart by Mike Helm, The Book A Bible (updating Bruce Lowe) What Makes A Classic Winner? Compiled by Robert H. Murphy, The Bloodstock Breeders Review, Compiled by Leon Rasmussen and Miles Napier,The Faber Book of THE TURF edited by John Hislop and David Swannell.

[Tom]

Changing breeding numbers is not only OK, it is necessary. Breeding numbers are based on real time numbers and as such, as new data comes in, the ratings have to be changed. Situations like Strike the Gold will inevitably occurr, and as a handicapper, there is nothing you can do about it - except understand that any number is only an indicator.

Beyer sometimes makes mass adjustments to his numbers up or down as future results clarify a track to track picture.

[headhawg]

PMR,

To follow up on what Tom mentioned about dynamic breeding numbers, Mike Helm is providing his rankings online through Progressive Handicapping. It's a bit pricey -- I think about $300 for an annual subscription -- but it would be a way to keep on top of the ever-changing ratings for sires, especially new ones.

For info, go to http://www.proghandicap.com/

HH

[andicap]

I would avoid Lauren Stich's -- it's mainly a list of sires she thinks she will good ones or are good ones -- not much on how to actually handicap via breeding which I was lookiing for.
Also, in her book she opines that the dam side mainly determines class. But recent research I've seen suggests the dam side has a lot more influence than that, perhaps over stamina the study I read a few weeks ago suggests.

[46zilzal]

everytime someone tries to tell me about the study of breeding (other than making general statements) I simply point to a filly Bold Ruler-Somethingroyal by Princequillo. Never won a race.

[The Judge]

I think I know what you are trying to say but I'm not sure. I can go you one better "Sea Bird" was 5 for 5 in 1965 including the Epson Derby and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe his dam Sicalade was sold for dog food before he ran.

But what you say would only means something to those that believe in that old saw "breed the best to the best and hope for the best". Most pedigree people know that a horse that never ran on the turf may produce mainly turf winners Stage Door Johnny comes to mind and there are some horses that never made it to the races that produce winners, a confirmed sprinter may produce routers or the other way around. That's the beauty of it you know early others know late.