The best Handicapping Systems

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Overlay

That's entirely true. (Sorry for my omission in that regard.)

Not being critical. Enjoying the discussion here.

Jake

[jamey1977]

Originally Posted by Overlay

That's entirely true. (Sorry for my omission in that regard.)

The problem is when there are 2 or 3 overlays from our line. Ties. So to say. So the best conclusion was for our overlay to be with the morning line favorite.? Or the favorite from our own line.? I had Compari - at 2 to 1. She should have been 3 to 5. She won the race. And perhaps Bourbon Bay could have been 1 to 2 on our line. My conclusion is to bet our favorite if there are ties. But the damn money switches around and I get so mad. I just bet and leave. I don't need the headaches. I bet a horse once at 5 to 2. He was 8 to 5 when the race was over. These computer hacks again.

[Overlay]

I use my own line in comparison to the public odds as the betting progresses, rather than with any reference to the morning line. I generally go for the greatest degree of overlay, rather than the overlay with the lowest actual or public odds (although it's easier for a horse with lower true odds by my line to offer the greatest degree of overlay). (That is, the public odds don't have to be as high to make the horse a greater proportional overlay than they would for a horse with higher true odds according to my line.)

[Knute Chapman]

So what type of player are you? Decide how you want to attempt to beat the game, then research a few methods or systems that come close to break even, from there you can attempt to develop you own mechanical system of play. I don’t think you can find a book that contains a system that you can play and beat the game, but some systems come close to break even, and with a few thousand races under your belt you can begin to sniff out how you might become a winner. You will find what works at one track fails miserably somewhere else, and what works for some races “never“ works in others. I am a “Class” handicapper using what most other’s would consider antiquated ideas, my horse playing friends tell me I’ve got the patience of Job, and I don’t win every day, or even every week, but the way I play makes me a winner. I recommend that you pursue developing your own method or system from an already existing system that almost breaks even. The guys winning are the guys doing something tweaked to their advantage, at least that’s been my experience.

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by Knute Chapman

I don’t think you can find a book that contains a system that you can play and beat the game, but some systems come close to break even, and with a few thousand races under your belt you can begin to sniff out how you might become a winner. You will find what works at one track fails miserably somewhere else, and what works for some races “never“ works in others. I am a “Class” handicapper using what most other’s would consider antiquated ideas, my horse playing friends tell me I’ve got the patience of Job, and I don’t win every day, or even every week, but the way I play makes me a winner.

Given that there are winners, if one or more of them would choose to market their approach, what would keep other players from using it to beat the game (provided that it had found a way around the usual problem of eventually being overbet into obsolescence/unprofitability as a result of increased public awareness or use)?

[joeyspicks]

Originally Posted by Knute Chapman

So what type of player are you? Decide how you want to attempt to beat the game, then research a few methods or systems that come close to break even, from there you can attempt to develop you own mechanical system of play. I don’t think you can find a book that contains a system that you can play and beat the game, but some systems come close to break even, and with a few thousand races under your belt you can begin to sniff out how you might become a winner. You will find what works at one track fails miserably somewhere else, and what works for some races “never“ works in others. I am a “Class” handicapper using what most other’s would consider antiquated ideas, my horse playing friends tell me I’ve got the patience of Job, and I don’t win every day, or even every week, but the way I play makes me a winner. I recommend that you pursue developing your own method or system from an already existing system that almost breaks even. The guys winning are the guys doing something tweaked to their advantage, at least that’s been my experience.

excellant post....and true in my experience too.

Of the ideas mentioned in you post (several good ones)...PATIENCE is the one that cannot be taught...and the one needed the most..!

[Eddie W]

By waiting it out, you become a winner...Playing everyday and putting there
picks online everyday you will lose, waiting and taking info to the track
is the best, and knowing what bets is best for you.

[jamey1977]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Given that there are winners, if one or more of them would choose to market their approach, what would keep other players from using it to beat the game (provided that it had found a way around the usual problem of eventually being overbet into obsolescence/unprofitability as a result of increased public awareness or use)?

That's why no one says anything. Heck, if we gave away our modus operandi, there goes the odds. Your best bet is to find books written by actual professional horseplayers. People are so lazy they don't even take the time to read books by actual players who are earning a living. They won't go over step by step with what they do so you can copy them but you can find clues and use your intelligence to come up with a profitable method. The ones who make serious profits Bet to Win only. Start with betting to win. Like Dick Mitchell says if you can't profit betting to win, don't even try the exotics. This game is being beaten but no one is saying anything. I believe they keep a low-profile because of the damn I.R.S. And their R.O.I. is way above 10 percent. No one believes that 10 percent crap.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by jamey1977

That's why no one says anything. Heck, if we gave away our modus operandi, there goes the odds. Your best bet is to find books written by actual professional horseplayers. People are so lazy they don't even take the time to read books by actual players who are earning a living. They won't go over step by step with what they do so you can copy them but you can find clues and use your intelligence to come up with a profitable method. The ones who make serious profits Bet to Win only. Start with betting to win. Like Dick Mitchell says if you can't profit betting to win, don't even try the exotics. This game is being beaten but no one is saying anything. I believe they keep a low-profile because of the damn I.R.S. And their R.O.I. is way above 10 percent. No one believes that 10 percent crap.

There is no evidence whatsoever that the successful bettors avoid the exotics. And as far as ROI is concerned, if a player could consistently maintain a ROI of 10%, with all the races currently available, and assuming he has a strong work ethic...he can end up with a great deal of money in very short order...

[shouldacoulda]

Originally Posted by Pace Cap'n

Bottom line, there is no "system", and you must develop you own method.

Were I to make a single recommendation, it would be "Calibration Handicapping", by Jim Lehane. It is definitely not a system, nor a methodolgy,
but a reasoned approach to the challenges of the game. Google him.

I agree and have his book. It was intuitive and helped a lot. That and James Quinns book The Handicappers Condition Book. Neither are clear cut systems but will open open your eyes. I never looked at a race the same after those two books.

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by jamey1977

That's why no one says anything. Heck, if we gave away our modus operandi, there goes the odds.

With elimination-type, "pick-the-winner" systems, I would agree with you, but my point was that if a player could develop a method that would not get bet into unprofitability as it became more widely known, the usual obstacle to marketing such a method would have been eliminated, which would address/remedy Knute Chapman's original statement ("I don’t think you can find a book that contains a system that you can play and beat the game....").

[citygoat]

Learn little track quirks.Remember when Keeneland was gold inside.Equipment changes win more at certain tracks.Borel on the rail,Samyn on the green.

This game is all about blood and breath, not numbers.

[podonne]

Originally Posted by Overlay

With elimination-type, "pick-the-winner" systems, I would agree with you, but my point was that if a player could develop a method that would not get bet into unprofitability as it became more widely known, the usual obstacle to marketing such a method would have been eliminated, which would address/remedy Knute Chapman's original statement ("I don’t think you can find a book that contains a system that you can play and beat the game....").

I'm just going to throw this out there because I've heard that this is possible, to develop a system that doesn't suffer from being publically available. Any profitable system that provides selections or odds lines with no input from the user will become unprofitable once it is widely known. It has to.

No one would say that I can bet an infinte amount into a pool and not effect my odds. But people who claim this imply that an infinite number of people can bet into a pool without affecting the odds. Even when the system only provides an odds line, any deviation from that odds line will be eliminated by people using the system. Odds in racing aren't fixed, so an overlay at 5mtp wil be gone at 0mtp from everyone using the system.

An "edge" in horse racing is due to an imbalance of information (one system has better information that the general public). Ergo, once that information is MADE public, the edge is eliminated.

[speculus]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

talent and hard work

Hard work is OPTIONAL.

[jamey1977]

Originally Posted by podonne

I'm just going to throw this out there because I've heard that this is possible, to develop a system that doesn't suffer from being publically available. Any profitable system that provides selections or odds lines with no input from the user will become unprofitable once it is widely known. It has to.

No one would say that I can bet an infinte amount into a pool and not effect my odds. But people who claim this imply that an infinite number of people can bet into a pool without affecting the odds. Even when the system only provides an odds line, any deviation from that odds line will be eliminated by people using the system. Odds in racing aren't fixed, so an overlay at 5mtp wil be gone at 0mtp from everyone using the system.

An "edge" in horse racing is due to an imbalance of information (one system has better information that the general public). Ergo, once that information is MADE public, the edge is eliminated.

That's why no one says anything. I will not divulge my secrets. And I read many books. Jim Quinn still won't tell you how he gets his odds lines and what they even are, no one says anything. All I can say is this game can be beaten and Bet To Win. Andy Beyer says at 10 percent we can say we are king of the world. Yeah, if we bet exactas. He can get there but it takes him 2 months to get that big score to get him to 10 percent. The Win betters, we can all say we are king of the world with a 40 percent R.O.I. And please don't think it's not possible. It is being done and there are players achieving more than that. Look at what the Steelers owner Art Rooney accomplished. He made "Let It Ride " reality, winning 160,000 dollars in one day. That's like 900 thousand dollars in today's money. And I have pro friends who see a sure thing at 5 to 2 and put up 1000 dollars to win. 10 times their usual bets. The odds fall to 2 to 1, sometimes That's 3000 dollars in 2 minutes. Does any computer program tell you to go for it and bet 10 times your usual bet if you feel right about one of your selections. 10 percent R.O.I. Yeah for them. These guys laugh at my 38 percent, they laugh at me. I will just say no one is here to get a damn 10 percent R.O.I, we want way more than that.