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Old 08-24-2019, 10:30 AM   #1201
donmat
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Give examples or instructions on how to manipulate the data inside the spreadsheet.
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Old 08-24-2019, 12:09 PM   #1202
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New version of HandiFast

Thanks Handi and guys for collaborating on a new release of Handifast. I look forward to using it. I'm still very new to the software, but I can tell that it has considerable promise.
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Old 08-24-2019, 12:27 PM   #1203
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What would be a gigantic help to better HandiFast is to suggest factors that can be implemented into the program...

The easy part is to build the interface and develop the code..

The hard part is to develop factors that has value & profitability...

If your saying thats easy...think about it....and hope that it hasnt been already developed in the past 40 years....

In my years of research...Bris Prime Power will trump anything you will develop concerning final figures....

All the other handicapping factors can enhance it...like Class ..Form..Jky/Trn, Pace.....but I just cant get a finger on how...

Just some of my thoughts here....

Mike
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Old 08-24-2019, 01:46 PM   #1204
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Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
The easy part is to build the interface and develop the code..

The hard part is to develop factors that has value & profitability...
If you're an expert coder the first part is easy, I guess. I have used too many programs with poor interfaces. The coding rule is this: the easier it is for the user the harder it is for the programmer. At the very least it is more time consuming.

The second part is hard in the sense that everything has been analyzed 100 ways to Sunday. There are still different ways to look at things, but handicappers need to use their brains and not simply rely on software. Programs are just tools, not black boxes. Our brains can adjust dynamically whereas programs are more-or-less static entities until the code changes. Most people are not willing to put in the time to learn the software, and that's true for free software like Handifast or for something like HTR. Look at HSH with 4000+ factors. Is there some combination of those that might lead to profits? I'm sure, but if one does the math that's a helluva number of possible combinations. Only the dedicated users will make it work for them.

As far as BPP the issues are twofold: one, it correlates highly with the tote. I have no idea what the r is. .65? .75? Higher? Maybe someone has done the research on that broken out by class, track, surface, distance. The second issue is the reliability of the calculations given the recent issues regarding BPP. Is it fixed?
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Old 08-24-2019, 02:04 PM   #1205
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If you're an expert coder the first part is easy, I guess. I have used too many programs with poor interfaces. The coding rule is this: the easier it is for the user the harder it is for the programmer. At the very least it is more time consuming.

The second part is hard in the sense that everything has been analyzed 100 ways to Sunday. There are still different ways to look at things, but handicappers need to use their brains and not simply rely on software. Programs are just tools, not black boxes. Our brains can adjust dynamically whereas programs are more-or-less static entities until the code changes. Most people are not willing to put in the time to learn the software, and that's true for free software like Handifast or for something like HTR. Look at HSH with 4000+ factors. Is there some combination of those that might lead to profits? I'm sure, but if one does the math that's a helluva number of possible combinations. Only the dedicated users will make it work for them.

As far as BPP the issues are twofold: one, it correlates highly with the tote. I have no idea what the r is. .65? .75? Higher? Maybe someone has done the research on that broken out by class, track, surface, distance. The second issue is the reliability of the calculations given the recent issues regarding BPP. Is it fixed?
Well said HH....

and "r" for BBP is closer to 9 or over

But like I said...other handicapping factors can actually effect BBP

For example....

BBP has 4-1-6-3-5

But a Class Factor has 6-8-1-4-5-3

So what this is saying...the 4 has superior figs compared to the rest..BUT.....It was done in less class races...so is that enough to bet against him?

Mike

Last edited by mikesal57; 08-24-2019 at 02:09 PM.
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Old 08-24-2019, 03:20 PM   #1206
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Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
Well said HH....

and "r" for BBP is closer to 9 or over

But like I said...other handicapping factors can actually effect BBP

For example....

BBP has 4-1-6-3-5

But a Class Factor has 6-8-1-4-5-3

So what this is saying...the 4 has superior figs compared to the rest..BUT.....It was done in less class races...so is that enough to bet against him?

Mike
I know you just gave a simple example but I think that it's impossible to tell unless you know how BPP and Bris class are calculated. And I also think that ranks can be misleading as it doesn't take into account score differences (gaps). To expand on your example, what if the BPP gap between the 4 and the 6 is 1.2, but the Class gap between them is only .8? Now what? Is the 1.2 meaningful? The .8? Are both gaps meaningless because they are virtually the same? This is a tough game even if you're smart about it.
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Old 08-24-2019, 03:47 PM   #1207
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Quote:
Look at HSH with 4000+ factors. Is there some combination of those that might lead to profits? I'm sure, but if one does the math that's a helluva number of possible combinations. Only the dedicated users will make it work for them.
I try not to "invade" other software threads and this will be no exception. I will try to offer something useful.

Truth be told, there are absolutely zero factors anywhere in HSH or any other software, for that matter, that by themselves will be profitable.

There once were a few such factors. For example, when I first began with HSH, Jim Cramer's "Best 1st fraction ever" factor was flat-bet profitable to the tune of a whopping 2.5% all by itself! Over the years I watched it deteriorate.

As it gradually went southward, it remained slightly profitable in route races. Now, even that is a slight losing proposition.

Cramer also has a number that is like BRIS' Prime Power: PSR. In fact, he has 2 of them, one being an older version that is still in the downloads. HSH has a 3rd one, a proprietary factor called simple, "RTG."

PSR was once profitable at 8/1 and above. That is, if you watched every race, at every track, and bet all the #1 PSR horses that went off at 8/1 or above, you would find yourself making money. As I recall, this occurred about 4 times on a typical Saturday in the summer.

Personally, I find this to be completely impractical. I mean, who is going to actually WATCH 400 races to see which horses fit the criteria?

But then it began to be assimilated into the public's handicapping and the lowest odds began to go up. It went to 10/1, then 12/1. Last I saw it was at around 15/1.

This rise in odds has changed those 4 plays per day to about 3 now.

Sorry, but the news is bad.
There are no single factors that will make you profitable.

The news gets worse.
Because of the influence of the whales, all of the really important factors are pretty much normalized to "flat." That is, the top 3 ranks for EVERYTHING comes in around $1.75.


And even more bad news.
Those who think that you will "lay in the weeds" for that $160 horse that will "make your year" are going to be disappointed. Besides... you can't bet much on them anyway.



BUT WAIT! All is not hopeless!
There is a ray of sunshine. In fact, the news is so good that there is a way to way.

No, this is not one of those $79-get-rich-quick systems... The ones that start with, "I've made so much money and now I just want to share with the world..." blah-blah-.

Not that. The thing is that it can be done but not the way you think. Maybe not even a way you're going to enjoy.


Here's what it is...
You need to become an expert at telling the difference between a good low-odds horse and a bad one.

If you can actually do that, you will be be able to at least break even throwing darts.

But, you don't get to say, "ALL favorites are bad bets." That has to stop.

You have to train yourself to get good at this. Every race needs to begin with this step. If there is an honest-to-goodness BET AGAINST horse, then the race is playable.

How do you train yourself? By tracking how well you do.

Oh, I've done it now. I've assigned homework. Yup. It will take work.

But it is worth it.

This comes with my money-back guarantee... oh wait. I didn't charge anything.

Seriously, if you do this, you will become really hard to beat.

"Your mission, Mr. Phelps, should you decide to accept it," (cue MI music) "... is to only play races where you have a low-odds horse that will, in the long run, lose 40 cents per wagered dollar."

Hope this helps.
Have a good time.


Dave
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Old 08-24-2019, 08:23 PM   #1208
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Introduce factors

I think tracks can have considerable lane bias', I don't know if that is addressed in Handifast. GulfStream had an inside lane bias going yesterday and for much of the summer. I'm going to explore biases such as lanes and run styles. (Closers, Stalkers, and speed - although I think HF can probably find what run styles are working.)
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Old 08-25-2019, 01:22 AM   #1209
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I highly recommend using Handisearch to construct analysts specifically for different tracks, distances, surfaces, classes.

But in the meantime, try this:

Thank you.
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Old 08-25-2019, 01:26 AM   #1210
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Thank you.
You're welcome. Glad I could be of assistance.
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Old 08-25-2019, 08:57 AM   #1211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElmerJFudd View Post
I think tracks can have considerable lane bias', I don't know if that is addressed in Handifast. GulfStream had an inside lane bias going yesterday and for much of the summer. I'm going to explore biases such as lanes and run styles. (Closers, Stalkers, and speed - although I think HF can probably find what run styles are working.)
Lanes?....No

Maybe Post Positions

That is something YOU need to be aware of before placing your bets
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Old 08-25-2019, 09:19 AM   #1212
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Idea for new HF version

I mentioned this last year but it never came to fruition; workouts. Maybe the addition of the new HF having a weight for the number of workouts in the last 30 days or something.

We really don't need the actual times, but rather the quantity of them in a certain time period. For example, if a horse has 3 or 4 workouts in the last 30 days, it gets additional points on his score to reflect sharp fitness. If it has none or one, then maybe subtract some points.
Well done Handi...

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Old 08-25-2019, 09:27 AM   #1213
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I mentioned this last year but it never came to fruition; workouts. Maybe the addition of the new HF having a weight for the number of workouts in the last 30 days or something.

We really don't need the actual times, but rather the quantity of them in a certain time period. For example, if a horse has 3 or 4 workouts in the last 30 days, it gets additional points on his score to reflect sharp fitness. If it has none or one, then maybe subtract some points.
Well done Handi...
this can be done...but in my experience its more helpful with young horse..Maidens
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Old 08-27-2019, 07:01 PM   #1214
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Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
I agree Fast....

A programs ability to produce files for research is essential to its worth....like Handisearch was to Handifast

and from what I believe your saying is to have a file produced before the days races to use in other capacities.....like loading it into Excel and devise "other" ways to use it..



Mike
My other ways to use it is longhand, I have two modules I generate with Handifast that are part of a formulation that I won't talk about that gets me some real nice superfectas. Having tried everything under the sun to get the same four consistently from Handifast alone I reside to the longhand method. While I am sharp enough to only bet one or two primo bets a day I find the Superfecta is what I really what I want to expand into but longhand limits me.
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Old 08-31-2019, 09:18 PM   #1215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longshot6977 View Post
I mentioned this last year but it never came to fruition; workouts. Maybe the addition of the new HF having a weight for the number of workouts in the last 30 days or something.

We really don't need the actual times, but rather the quantity of them in a certain time period. For example, if a horse has 3 or 4 workouts in the last 30 days, it gets additional points on his score to reflect sharp fitness. If it has none or one, then maybe subtract some points.
Well done Handi...



I think some kind of rating based on workouts would be valuable not only for maidens but other races also.
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