Inflation question

[lamboguy]

this thing is a complete mess no matter who's fault it is. i really did not fall in love with the way the dollar fell out of bed today with the interest rates being raised yesterday.

i think this is exactly what the rotten politicians want us to do, search for who to blame and blind us from the real problems we have here, incompetent leaders from every side. i really hope and pray that the next president does not come from either the Democrat or Republican party next time.

now the Federal Reserve Board comes in and votes us in this stupid 3/4 of a point interest rate increase with more promised in the future. according to this article below, the author believes it will cause more inflation. i agree with the author on this, but one thing i know for sure is that these rate hikes are going to accomplish less growth in the economy. if you have less growth, you will have less tax revenues coming in that the government has to waste more money on.

https://monetary-metals.com/will-int...fix-inflation/

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious

Do the economic policies during the Trump presidency have anything to do with the rise of inflation under Biden?

I’d say some of Trump’s stimulus checks and large budget deficits contributed to it, but Biden continued that and added even to more spending.

Some of the problem is also supply related.

When you are openly hostile to oil and gas as an energy source, exploration and investment will at a minimum be put on hold because you can’t be sure to profit. That will ultimately cause higher prices. Trump was openly friendly. Biden is openly hostile. Those higher oil and gas prices feed into almost everything else. The left caused that. We were energy independent and still investing heavily in both oil/gas and green. Now we are begging Saudis and others to up their production. It’s not a on and off switch.

[Tom]

He's using facts on Captain Obvious....

YouTube

[CaptainObvious]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

this thing is a complete mess no matter who's fault it is. i really did not fall in love with the way the dollar fell out of bed today with the interest rates being raised yesterday.

i think this is exactly what the rotten politicians want us to do, search for who to blame and blind us from the real problems we have here, incompetent leaders from every side. i really hope and pray that the next president does not come from either the Democrat or Republican party next time.

now the Federal Reserve Board comes in and votes us in this stupid 3/4 of a point interest rate increase with more promised in the future. according to this article below, the author believes it will cause more inflation. i agree with the author on this, but one thing i know for sure is that these rate hikes are going to accomplish less growth in the economy. if you have less growth, you will have less tax revenues coming in that the government has to waste more money on.

https://monetary-metals.com/will-int...fix-inflation/

I agree with a lot of what you say here, esp. about our next president and the fed. They held interest rates historically low for way too long.

[vegasone]

Policies by the fed under Obama, Trump, Biden and before them all contributed to inflation. Also, crazy spending by congress helped cause the situation. The market benefitted in the most observable way, as did real estate because of all the mostly “free” money floating around. The hidden inflation for consumers was there till the geniuses in the media and government figured out that shrinking product containers, etc is also inflation.
Somebody had to be around when the s*** hit the fan. Under Trump it probably wouldn’t have been as drastic since it seems as thing were going well and the economy would have expanded enough if lockdowns weren’t implemented.

Can’t test theories about economics since you can’t go back and do things differently. Economists just throw stuff against the wall and hope something sticks.

Going forward, Biden’s policies are sure to make things worse for everybody.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by vegasone

Economists just throw stuff against the wall and hope something sticks.

That simply isn't true. Basic economic principles don't change. You can't change gravity any more than you can change basic supply and demand equations. Likewise, we have plenty of history to show that certain actions can and often do lead to certain results. The supply chain issues from covid lockdowns were and are easily predictable. Throwing trillions of dollars into an economy WILL cause it to overheat and was predicted in advance. While more along the lines of human nature, giving people free anything will cause them to make less efficient decisions (sit at home on the couch) that will NOT favor long term economic growth all things being equal. Likewise, jamming the cogs of oil production and refining through regulatory dampers will cause a supply side effect that increases prices. All predictable without any shit throwing against the wall.

Everything you see happening is a direct result of a series of policies (lockdowns, regulations, spending, etc), all of which had outcomes easily predicted two years ago. To say otherwise is to have your head in the sand.

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

My fuel surcharge for our weekly truck delivery just went from 80 bucks the last 6 months to $120 going forward. Btw, he charges the store 25 miles from me the same charge. I’m sure it’s not costing the distributor $120 to drive that 25 miles but everybody is paying more

A friend local had two locations with his brand seemed to be doing well until one location closed. Then I came along with questions. Long story short was keeping both restaurant locations was not viable, closing one enabled survival of the other. Being able to draw fron two to make the one stronger was his only option. And if he only had the one turning the key would have been what would be next. I do not know the business, and was told that his regular customers were often seen at both locations. Also pointing out the carnage of other closed restuants local was because others could not pull from another location to do it right. Reading between the lines sounds like things are really not good and not improving.

[lamboguy]

a report came out that the refineries are at 94% capacity now in the US, there are plenty of tankers sitting 200 miles off shore with nowhere to drop their oil off. demand for oil is way down from the same time last year.

prior to the war in Ukraine, the prices had been going up. Putin and the oil companies all knew ahead of time there was going to be a war, so they upped their prices and created a panic. so today, after 10 weeks of oil prices going up up and away, they are finally getting hit. so now what's happening is the gasoline prices which had been $5 per gallon will go down to $4 and our government will tell you how great a job they did lowering prices during world conflict.

[CaptainObvious]

Originally Posted by Tom

He's using facts on Captain Obvious....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDqsgbtpDLk

Sorry, for some reason I don’t get videos on this site.

[CaptainObvious]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I’d say some of Trump’s stimulus checks and large budget deficits contributed to it, but Biden continued that and added even to more spending.

Some of the problem is also supply related.

When you are openly hostile to oil and gas as an energy source, exploration and investment will at a minimum be put on hold because you can’t be sure to profit. That will ultimately cause higher prices. Trump was openly friendly. Biden is openly hostile. Those higher oil and gas prices feed into almost everything else. The left caused that. We were energy independent and still investing heavily in both oil/gas and green. Now we are begging Saudis and others to up their production. It’s not a on and off switch.

I don’t disagree with any of this, I’ve worked in O&G for 20 years and most dems have been adversarial the whole time.

The Saudis cut their output during the Covid slowdown and refuse to go back to pre Covid production and domestic producers refuse to increase production also. It’s a great way to make record profits when demand rebounded.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by fast4522

A friend local had two locations with his brand seemed to be doing well until one location closed. Then I came along with questions. Long story short was keeping both restaurant locations was not viable, closing one enabled survival of the other. Being able to draw fron two to make the one stronger was his only option. And if he only had the one turning the key would have been what would be next. I do not know the business, and was told that his regular customers were often seen at both locations. Also pointing out the carnage of other closed restuants local was because others could not pull from another location to do it right. Reading between the lines sounds like things are really not good and not improving.

I turned down an offer to purchase another location just this last week. It’s on the other side of Houston. About 1.5 hour drive from my new home (which is 15 min from my current location)

The current owner has run it into the ground over the last 2 yrs. Now he wants out because it makes not a damn dime. We talked about transferring some of our key people to the new store but it would just kill the good thing we have going now.

They are practically looking to give it away. But I figure 300k to fix everything he has not repaired etc. I would have to fire 90% of his staff and I would probably have to rent an apt nearby for the 2 yrs or so it would take to turn it around.

No thanks

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I turned down an offer to purchase another location just this last week. It’s on the other side of Houston. About 1.5 hour drive from my new home (which is 15 min from my current location)

The current owner has run it into the ground over the last 2 yrs. Now he wants out because it makes not a damn dime. We talked about transferring some of our key people to the new store but it would just kill the good thing we have going now.

They are practically looking to give it away. But I figure 300k to fix everything he has not repaired etc. I would have to fire 90% of his staff and I would probably have to rent an apt nearby for the 2 yrs or so it would take to turn it around.

No thanks

Wow. There doesn't seem to be anything good in this deal for you, Ralph.

Ralph

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Elkchester Road

Wow. There doesn't seem to be anything good in this deal for you, Ralph.

Ralph

We would be profitable in 6 months or less, but how much? In this economy would we make? Hard to tell. How long to break even?

In 3yrs or more I might have a nice place that I bought very cheaply……but do we want a rehab project ? Nope…..not with 5-10 yrs to go until retirement

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious

Sorry, for some reason I don’t get videos on this site.

See this thread for a possible solution:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=170831

I assume you are having trouble on some sort of iOS product....

[CaptainObvious]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

See this thread for a possible solution:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=170831

I assume you are having trouble on some sort of iOS product....

Thanks, saw that thread but hadn’t had a chance to look at it. You assume correct.