Solid field of 11 going 10 panels for $700K.
Name Changer: An obvious class jumper in here that has tried Graded Stakes competition in the past without much success. Best career race to date is likely when he beat fellow peer in here Discreet Lover. Complete toss as it is tough to see even in the Super without a career best effort and others falling well short.
War Story: Always seems to run a nice race, but never good enough. His two lone victories over the last two years were at Tampa in a much lesser field than this and in a 12 panel short field Brooklyn last summer. Had things pretty much his way in this year's Brooklyn last out, and still couldn't get it done. Exotics bound.
Zanotti: Had a monster 2017 campaign, and the connections have ramped up the stakes and competition. 4 for 4 in the Exacta in '18, yet zero wins. Not sure he has ever ran a race that can beat this field.
Tapwrit: Likely the biggest question mark in the field after his not so great '18 beau. However, he hit the gate in that effort and didn't get the greatest of trips. And that was after a lengthy layoff with that race assuredly not being any kind of goal. Now the goal is in front of him, and we'll likely get this guys best effort. A horse I'm sure that there will be many differing opinions.
Dr. Dorr: Was cross entered at Prairie Meadows last night, but sticks here. This Baffert entry is having a dream 2018 season as he is 3 for 4 which includes his fairly solid runner up to Accelerate in the Santa Anita Gold Cup. Lightly raced 5YO that they toiled with sprints for a while before he really broke through this year getting back to 2 turns. His last 2 races have made this late developing 5YO the ML favorite. Little doubt of the strategy, as he'll get to the front and try to wall everybody off.
Discreet Lover: Has had a rather dismal 2018 campaign and the lowest odds of his last three races has been 20/1. Likely needs to get back to the Parx, Laurel, Chucktown stakes circuit. Unless you're a major player of the 'vanned off' angle, this is a tough one to play.
Take Your Guns: Lightly raced 4YO ran a pretty solid race in the Brooklyn as he was beaten by a couple of solid rivals in here. He is undoubtedly getting better, and could be at that stage to crank out a monster. My pick at 6/1 or better.
Hoppertunity: This money making machine could become a $5 million dollar earner with a win today. That is pretty rare air. The old Baffert war horse just bangs along and runs his race just about every time out. Has to be considered as a major contender in here. His 2 for 2 record at Belmont can't be overlooked.
Sorry Erik: Really interesting ship from the Desormeaux brothers. Will be his first time at 10 panels, and could get a pace set up for him to pass many others late. Almost impossible to see on top, but could be a bottom end exotics booster.
Diversify: Loves Belmont, but a number of those races are against much lesser competition and/or state-bred only races. However, his lone venture at 10 furlongs was a victory in a G1 at this very track in last October's Jockey Club Gold Cup. Will undoubtedly need to be on or near the lead in here, and this post may be too much to overcome. Really nice horse in what I see as a tough spot.
The Lieutenant: Has really never beaten the likes of these, much less from the 11 hole. The
has spanked him twice in two of his last three races. Can't see it.
SUMMARY: Looking to get the
at something near his ML of 8/1 and will need to likely include
in horizontals
to hit the P3 a bunch of time. But, when you're as cold as I am it's hard to have any confidence.
