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Old 06-11-2018, 12:33 PM   #16
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I'm looking at the 133 TFUS, which I admittedly misread as the 1/2 mile fraction (it's the 3/4 fraction). That simply points out how well he was able to slow down the pace (150 to 133) when allowed to dictate terms comfortably without any pressure.

I'm not sure if anyone was even entered in the Belmont that could push him further beyond the first half mile, but if there were, conceivably, Gronkowski might have made more of a dent in the race.

Of course, some schooling sessions at the gate might have changed circumstances, too.
Yea, I agree

I was looking at the half mile, which I think has a bigger impact on the early part of the race and how hard a horse was used.
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Old 06-11-2018, 03:29 PM   #17
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Hoppertunity's "best days" were nearly 2 years ago. In his last 6 North American starts dating back all the way to February 2017, he has averaged a 98 BSF. The 98 BSF for the Brooklyn also falls in line with the 97 BSF he earned this year in the Tokyo City at Santa Anita which was also at 12 furlongs.

Meanwhile, War Story being razor sharp is a bit dubious. He went from a 75 BSF in a non-effort at Gulfstream to a near-career best 107 before going backwards to 100 BSF in a weak Charles Town Classic. This was followed by a nearly 2 month layoff.

Also, you should be calling into question his 102 BSF from last year's Brooklyn, not using it as evidence that he should have earned a similar figure a year later in defeat. In the 5 races that flanked that 2017 effort (3 before and 2 after), he averaged a 94 BSF. Tapwrit, who won the Belmont later that day, earned a 103 BSF. Tapwrit's Belmont was a full second faster than War Story's Brooklyn.


Not a single horse outside of Justify had ever earned a triple digit Beyer in any previous start. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find one that broke the 90 BSF mark more than twice in their career.


None of those ran good races Saturday. Vino Rosso got no help up front, and was forced to make an early bid at the favorite going into the far turn. Not surprisingly, he was repulsed and hung. Tenfold was bothered on the first turn and didn't stay on despite his pedigree. Hofburg, who has shown to this point that he is nothing more than a plodder who needs a pace meltdown to even make a run, plodded his way into third while no threat.

In addition, Tenfold and Hofburg--like Justify--have been on accelerated programs to make into the Triple Crown race and not surprisingly have come away with little to show for it other than some interesting mid-race moves and a few traffic problems. The talent might be there, but their connections ought to have waited until they were more ripe. Even if Justify smashed these so-called "curses" to smithereens, he's still the exception to the rule...
Well, this is why I always argue that figures should not be taken too literally.

Different people will interpret results differently, the accuracy of prior figures matters, personal biases can impact the analysis etc..

IMO, there's nothing in Hoppy's record to indicate he's not as good now as on his better days. His 97 at 12F was off a layoff in a very big win where he wasn't all out and his last race was too short for him. This was his 3rd race off a layoff and he was probably aimed for this. He was running 101s against BETTER horses late last year even though he's probably at his best going 10F or 12F now.

Even if we split the difference, he's still a 101+ horse.

War Story is a pretty good racehorse with several races to support a triple digit figure and he took the same path into this year's event as last year's win.

Had they finished 3rd and 4th that would be one thing, but when they run 1-2 and look pretty good doing it, I'm not buying that they ran at the lower end of the possibilities.

The 3yos are tougher, BUT the general trend is for them to be getting faster not to be going sideways or backwards. If you don't build in some expected improvement you are bound to underestimate them over time.

12F races are at 2 turns. IMO, you have to at least consider breaking them out from the rest of the day, but if the races come up a little slow and you come into the analysis with a "slow bias", you'll take them at face value and make them slow. From his comments, I believe Beyer believes that US horses can't run 12F anymore. So he probably comes into the analysis with a bias that leads him to the conclusion that these races are slower than they actually are.

I don't think it's an accident that several horses came out of American Pharoah's Belmont and jumped up next time. It would not surprise me if several of these 3yos do also. They aren't world beaters but they aren't as slow as he has them.
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Old 06-11-2018, 05:38 PM   #18
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Well, this is why I always argue that figures should not be taken too literally.

Different people will interpret results differently, the accuracy of prior figures matters, personal biases can impact the analysis etc..

IMO, there's nothing in Hoppy's record to indicate he's not as good now as on his better days. His 97 at 12F was off a layoff in a very big win where he wasn't all out and his last race was too short for him. This was his 3rd race off a layoff and he was probably aimed for this. He was running 101s against BETTER horses late last year even though he's probably at his best going 10F or 12F now.

Even if we split the difference, he's still a 101+ horse.

War Story is a pretty good racehorse with several races to support a triple digit figure and he took the same path into this year's event as last year's win.

Had they finished 3rd and 4th that would be one thing, but when they run 1-2 and look pretty good doing it, I'm not buying that they ran at the lower end of the possibilities.

The 3yos are tougher, BUT the general trend is for them to be getting faster not to be going sideways or backwards. If you don't build in some expected improvement you are bound to underestimate them over time.

12F races are at 2 turns. IMO, you have to at least consider breaking them out from the rest of the day, but if the races come up a little slow and you come into the analysis with a "slow bias", you'll take them at face value and make them slow. From his comments, I believe Beyer believes that US horses can't run 12F anymore. So he probably comes into the analysis with a bias that leads him to the conclusion that these races are slower than they actually are.

I don't think it's an accident that several horses came out of American Pharoah's Belmont and jumped up next time. It would not surprise me if several of these 3yos do also. They aren't world beaters but they aren't as slow as he has them.
Another possibility is Hop's BSF is accurate but was earned closing off a crawling pace, which explains why it is low.
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:17 PM   #19
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IMO, there's nothing in Hoppy's record to indicate he's not as good now as on his better days.
It used to take horses like California Chrome, Shared Belief, Gunner Runner, Arrogate, Lea, Beholder, and Effinex to put Hoppertunity in his place.

Now all it takes is horses ascending from the allowance ranks like Top Of The Game, Seeking The Soul, Giant Expectations, and Backyard Haven...

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His 97 at 12F was off a layoff in a very big win where he wasn't all out and his last race was too short for him.
I should hope not. Both the runner up and the show horse are claiming horses. The latter just ran unplaced in a $12.5K on Sunday at Santa Anita (the former was unplaced for $62.5 the same day).

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This was his 3rd race off a layoff and he was probably aimed for this. He was running 101s against BETTER horses late last year even though he's probably at his best going 10F or 12F now.
If he's better now at 12 furlongs than middle distances it is most likely because he gets class relief. He won top races like the Clark, the Rebel, the San Antonio (2x), and the San Pasqual in his earlier days between 8.5-9 furlongs but couldn't make a dent at 10 furlongs until he caught a weak 5-horse field at Belmont.

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War Story is a pretty good racehorse with several races to support a triple digit figure and he took the same path into this year's event as last year's win.
War Story had never put together back to back triple digit Beyers until his last pair, which as I already commented featured a drop off a several points followed by a 7-week layoff. I wouldn't expect 3 straight triple digit Beyers under those conditions.

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Had they finished 3rd and 4th that would be one thing, but when they run 1-2 and look pretty good doing it, I'm not buying that they ran at the lower end of the possibilities.
But it wasn't "lower end", it was their average race...

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The 3yos are tougher, BUT the general trend is for them to be getting faster not to be going sideways or backwards. If you don't build in some expected improvement you are bound to underestimate them over time.
Horses that are rushed into the classics like Hofburg and Tenfold, often come undone and never really progress (see Pavel) afterwards. Hopefully, that won't prove to be the case.

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12F races are at 2 turns. IMO, you have to at least consider breaking them out from the rest of the day, but if the races come up a little slow and you come into the analysis with a "slow bias", you'll take them at face value and make them slow. From his comments, I believe Beyer believes that US horses can't run 12F anymore. So he probably comes into the analysis with a bias that leads him to the conclusion that these races are slower than they actually are.
I don't think there are a lot of adjustments that can be made to speed/performance figures which will make a raw time between 2:28 to 2:30 for 12 furlongs fast...

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I don't think it's an accident that several horses came out of American Pharoah's Belmont and jumped up next time.
A big reason might be because, as Beyer believes, US horses can't run 12 furlongs anymore.

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It would not surprise me if several of these 3yos do also. They aren't world beaters but they aren't as slow as he has them.
Gronkowski certainly has some appeal going forward. The rest are probably fried for one reason or another (e.g, trainer, campaign).

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Old 06-11-2018, 07:10 PM   #20
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...I don't think there are a lot of adjustments that can be made to speed/performance figures which will make a raw time between 2:28 to 2:30 for 12 furlongs fast...


A big reason might be because, as Beyer believes, US horses can't run 12 furlongs anymore.


Gronkowski certainly has some appeal going forward. The rest are probably fried for one reason or another (e.g, trainer, campaign).
There is conundrum here. Speed figures are supposed to, and this directly from Beyer's books, equate performances at different distances. IF top horses can't run twelve furlongs as well as they did 20 years ago, shouldn't the speed charts be adjusted to achieve the desired goal?

If the speed figures are supposed to be a historical reference, that is something different and means the goalposts have moved.

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Old 06-11-2018, 07:57 PM   #21
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Using Beyer figures to compare horses from across anything from say about 2009 is a giant waste of time, this was covered extensively in another thread.

I dont believe for a second Justify would have trouble keeping up with Grade 3 horses of the 80's and 90's, but if you believe the figures he would not have.
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Old 06-11-2018, 09:03 PM   #22
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There is conundrum here. Speed figures are supposed to, and this directly from Beyer's books, equate performances at different distances. IF top horses can't run twelve furlongs as well as they did 20 years ago, shouldn't the speed charts be adjusted to achieve the desired goal?
The thing that confounds Beyer's notion that top horses can no longer run 12 furlongs is that there are precious few stakes races run at 12 furlongs and furthermore there are precious few top horses that even bother to contest them.

I'm going to give a blanket dismissal of races like the Brooklyn, BC/Las Vegas Marathon, Tokyo City Cup, Cougar II, etc. They're jokes of top class races at best.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup hasn't been 12 furlongs for decades now.

Meanwhile, even the Belmont Stakes has often failed to draw winners of the Derby and Preakness in recent years, never mind some of the best of the respective crops.

Another thing that confounds the issue is the presumption that the same top class horses at middle distances ought to be the top class horses at longer (or shorter) distances. That's what Classhandicapper does when pointing out that the also-rans from American Pharoah's Belmont all came back and improved their BSFs next out. None of them ran 12 furlongs in those starts, in fact, most cut back to 9 furlongs.

If the NA Thoroughbred racing industry was truly thriving, you'd have distinctly delineated divisions by distance (sprint, mile, middle distance, classic distance, staying distance) as you do in Europe. It ought to be a rare feat for a top horse from one division to bust out and beat the best from another division, especially when moving up in distance.

That's one of the main reasons why the Triple Crown is so hard to win regardless of the variation in fields between the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont. Only two types of horses ought to be able to win all 3:

(1) a "jack of all trades" type that is comfortable, but average, at both classic (10f) and marathon (12f) distances

(2) a worldbeater/freak/superhorse that breaks all the rules governing their contemporaries.

I'm pretty certain that all the Triple Crown winners since Secretariat fit the latter category (and many of the near misses fit the former category)--though I think the two most recent ones couldn't hold a candle to the others. Even if the breed as a whole is on the decline in terms of racetrack performance, one ought to still expect the odd runner to separate itself from the pack and dominate with what would be considered historically "lesser" performances.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:55 AM   #23
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It used to take horses like California Chrome, Shared Belief, Gunner Runner, Arrogate, Lea, Beholder, and Effinex to put Hoppertunity in his place.

Now all it takes is horses ascending from the allowance ranks like Top Of The Game, Seeking The Soul, Giant Expectations, and Backyard Haven...


I should hope not. Both the runner up and the show horse are claiming horses. The latter just ran unplaced in a $12.5K on Sunday at Santa Anita (the former was unplaced for $62.5 the same day).


If he's better now at 12 furlongs than middle distances it is most likely because he gets class relief. He won top races like the Clark, the Rebel, the San Antonio (2x), and the San Pasqual in his earlier days between 8.5-9 furlongs but couldn't make a dent at 10 furlongs until he caught a weak 5-horse field at Belmont.


War Story had never put together back to back triple digit Beyers until his last pair, which as I already commented featured a drop off a several points followed by a 7-week layoff. I wouldn't expect 3 straight triple digit Beyers under those conditions.


But it wasn't "lower end", it was their average race...


Horses that are rushed into the classics like Hofburg and Tenfold, often come undone and never really progress (see Pavel) afterwards. Hopefully, that won't prove to be the case.


I don't think there are a lot of adjustments that can be made to speed/performance figures which will make a raw time between 2:28 to 2:30 for 12 furlongs fast...


A big reason might be because, as Beyer believes, US horses can't run 12 furlongs anymore.

1. I think it's very likely Hoppertunity will run a triple digit Beyer against better horses going shorter (which is not optimal) before the year is out just like he did to end his campaign in December (just 3 races and a few months ago) and show that on his good days he's still the same Hoppy.

2. I think it's very likely War Story will do the same (possibly even next time out) because he was prepped for the Brooklyn this year exactly as he was last year and looked good both times.

3. I think Beyer is biased towards making lower figures for 12F because of his belief that modern horses can't run 12F. I think he is right in "general", but I saw nothing in the way that American Pharoah finished to lead me to believe he couldn't handle 12F. And to be honest, I didn't see anything in the way Justify, Gronk, Hofburg or VR finished that makes me think that about them either. I don't think this group is as good as Pharoah's group, but I don't think they are trash mid 90s allowance horses either.

I keep saying it's crazy to take these numbers at face value because it's clear that prior figures matter in the interpretation of future results and handicapping biases matter also.

Right now, Beyer has this crop as dreadful. CJ has them as strong. Thorograph hasn't published their Belmont figure yet, but in general they have them somewhere in between.

You and I aren't going to agree about a few Beyer points one way or the other.
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:08 AM   #24
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Another thing that confounds the issue is the presumption that the same top class horses at middle distances ought to be the top class horses at longer (or shorter) distances. That's what Classhandicapper does when pointing out that the also-rans from American Pharoah's Belmont all came back and improved their BSFs next out. None of them ran 12 furlongs in those starts, in fact, most cut back to 9 furlongs.
I am aware of that being a complicating issue, but assuming these horses can't get 12F is just as biased as assuming they can.

I suspect that Beyer starts from the position that they CAN'T run as fast going 12F when he's interpreting results and making figures. Then when they jump up later he assumes they only ran faster because it was a shorter distance that they liked it better.

That COULD be true, but it could also be false.

It could be that his chart is off a few points at 12F on these deeper modern surfaces or that the 2 turn races should have been broken out by a few points on a specific day.

3 horses in the Pharoah Belmont came home in under 25 seconds. It was fast track and all, but that was no stagger fest. Maybe they were just a few points faster than given credit for.
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:18 AM   #25
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Using Beyer figures to compare horses from across anything from say about 2009 is a giant waste of time, this was covered extensively in another thread.

I dont believe for a second Justify would have trouble keeping up with Grade 3 horses of the 80's and 90's, but if you believe the figures he would not have.
There's no question that in general the figures have declined at the very top of the scale. I think I estimated it at about 6 points since the early 90s among the top males and a little less among females. I looked at the data and may even still have it somewhere. Now, in the last couple of years we've had a few 120 figures again (hmmmn).

There could be a lot of reasons for all this, but I'm not buying that horses are getting slower anymore than I'm buying that there are Grade 3 horses now that could beat Secretariat based on Thorograph.

Figures are a great tool in general terms, but they are not a good way to compare horses across years when we are talking about a few 1/5ths of a second, new surfaces, and all the problems with keeping them in line.
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:07 AM   #26
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1. I think it's very likely Hoppertunity will run a triple digit Beyer against better horses going shorter (which is not optimal) before the year is out just like he did to end his campaign in December (just 3 races and a few months ago) and show that on his good days he's still the same Hoppy.
You're changing the goalposts now. You claimed originally that he was a 104-105 BSF horse and I simply pointed out that he's averaged a 98 BSF for the past 16 months. So if he happens to reach 100, your original assessment will be correct?

At any rate, if his performance in that San Antonio--4th in a 5-horse field behind runaway NY-bred allowance horse Giant Expectations--is indicative of the "real" Hoppertunity, I'm probably in good shape.

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2. I think it's very likely War Story will do the same (possibly even next time out) because he was prepped for the Brooklyn this year exactly as he was last year and looked good both times.
War Story did not look good in the final 3/8s. He had to fight hard to wrest the lead from Outplay (someone ought to ask Repole why that horse coming out of 7f races was even in the race) on the far turn, swapped to his right lead on the turn--never a good sign, and then had his head bent towards the rail through the stretch (probably was trying to lug out like Hard Study).

Besides, not sure a horse targets a $400K race by "prepping" in a $12 million race and a $1.2 million dollar race. Less a progression and more like a digression.

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3. I think Beyer is biased against making bigger figures for 12F because of his belief that modern horses can't run 12F. I think he is right in "general", but I saw nothing in the way that American Pharoah finished to lead me to believe he couldn't handle 12F. And to be honest, I didn't see anything in the way Justify, Gronk, Hofburg or VR finished that makes me think that about them either. I don't think this group is as good as Pharoah's group, but I don't think they are trash mid 90s allowance horses either.
When you look at the rest of the days BSFs, the Brooklyn was not out of sorts. Met Mile winner Bee Jersey registered a 109 BSF going 8 furlongs and missing the NA record by 4/5s of a second; Phipps winner Abel Tasman earned a 100 BSF going 8.5 furlongs and missing the track mark by a little over 1 second; Hoppertunity got a 98 BSF going 12 furlongs while 4 seconds slower than the NA record.

The American Pharoah also-rans were inconsistent, if talented, to say the least. Frosted, Keen Ice, and Mubtaahij were essentially one-hit wonders in terms of Grade 1 performances thereafter, disappointing more often than not. Ironically, Made From Lucky, who was well beaten in the Belmont, matured into a decent stayer with multiple victories beyond 11 furlongs.

The Justify also-ran brigade seems loaded with talent, but I would question their longevity, especially if they aren't afforded an opportunity to progress with some time off and some class relief.

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Right now, Beyer has this crop as dreadful. CJ has them as strong. Thorograph hasn't published their Belmont figure yet, but in general they have them somewhere in between.
The crop clearly had some talent going into the Triple Crown, the problem is that most of it has gone by the wayside in the past 5 weeks. On TFUS, Justify had separated himself in the SA Derby with only Bolt D'Oro and Audible and perhaps Good Magic in range to threaten him in the Classics.

Anyways, several key horses that hit the 120 TFUS mark in winning efforts have disappeared or have been deep fried: Bolt D'Oro, Solomini, Audible, McKenzie, and Promises Fulfilled. None of those--mercifully as it turns out-were in the Belmont, leaving Justify to take on some promising, but relatively unaccomplished, horses for his Triple Crown title.

Hopefully some on the sidelines return in full force, or others like Good Magic, Gronkowski, Ax Man, and Mendelssohn pick up the mantle.
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Old 06-12-2018, 12:03 PM   #27
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You're changing the goalposts now. You claimed originally that he was a 104-105 BSF horse and I simply pointed out that he's averaged a 98 BSF for the past 16 months. So if he happens to reach 100, your original assessment will be correct?

At any rate, if his performance in that San Antonio--4th in a 5-horse field behind runaway NY-bred allowance horse Giant Expectations--is indicative of the "real" Hoppertunity, I'm probably in good shape.


War Story did not look good in the final 3/8s. He had to fight hard to wrest the lead from Outplay (someone ought to ask Repole why that horse coming out of 7f races was even in the race) on the far turn, swapped to his right lead on the turn--never a good sign, and then had his head bent towards the rail through the stretch (probably was trying to lug out like Hard Study).

Besides, not sure a horse targets a $400K race by "prepping" in a $12 million race and a $1.2 million dollar race. Less a progression and more like a digression.


When you look at the rest of the days BSFs, the Brooklyn was not out of sorts. Met Mile winner Bee Jersey registered a 109 BSF going 8 furlongs and missing the NA record by 4/5s of a second; Phipps winner Abel Tasman earned a 100 BSF going 8.5 furlongs and missing the track mark by a little over 1 second; Hoppertunity got a 98 BSF going 12 furlongs while 4 seconds slower than the NA record.
Um, Secretariat's 2:24 flat is a lot different than those other records.
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Old 06-12-2018, 12:33 PM   #28
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Um, Secretariat's 2:24 flat is a lot different than those other records.
Now that we've dispensed with the snobbish preliminaries...?
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Old 06-12-2018, 12:46 PM   #29
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Now that we've dispensed with the snobbish preliminaries...?
I am not trying to be snobbish. I am saying you are comparing apples to oranges.
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Old 06-12-2018, 01:07 PM   #30
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When you look at the rest of the days BSFs, the Brooklyn was not out of sorts. Met Mile winner Bee Jersey registered a 109 BSF going 8 furlongs and missing the NA record by 4/5s of a second; Phipps winner Abel Tasman earned a 100 BSF going 8.5 furlongs and missing the track mark by a little over 1 second; Hoppertunity got a 98 BSF going 12 furlongs while 4 seconds slower than the NA record..
This post says it all, not a single horse who ran on June 9th could compete historically in these same races based on these figures, and that I do not believe accurate at all.
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