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Old 02-16-2020, 09:53 PM   #1
paulbenny
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Saffie Joseph - How Good Is He

I have to ask the general question about S Joseph. It seems to me he is quite statistically good, and at the same time it seems similar to these names:


N. McKnight
J. Navarro
R. Diodoro
K. Broberg


In other words, do you think he operates cleanly? It just appears to me he is too good, too quick with cheaper horses.


Thoughts are appreciated.


Thanks.
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Old 02-17-2020, 02:21 PM   #2
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You're not getting any replies because it's a pointless question to try to answer. Anyone who has a bunch of horses miraculously improve overnight is going to be suspected of cheating. However, we're not actually in the barn and the trainer in question hasn't been suspended, so all we'd be doing is disparaging a trainer with no concrete proof. You just have to take into account the trainer effect and factor it into your betting.
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Old 02-17-2020, 02:31 PM   #3
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You just have to take into account the trainer effect and factor it into your betting.
I would add "ownership" effect as well....Make a list and check it twice, gifts a plenty.
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Old 02-17-2020, 03:31 PM   #4
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Today's 4th at GP was the poster child for a Saffie Joseph horse. They just keep coming even if under a drive for a long time.
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Old 02-17-2020, 04:51 PM   #5
AltonKelsey
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Savvy Joseph ?
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Old 02-17-2020, 06:47 PM   #6
Tom
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Gulfstream Park, why don't I bet you?

Let me count the ways.......

Poor timing,
Unreliable run ups, unknown distances,
And Miracle worker trainers....
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:23 PM   #7
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Gulfstream Park, why don't I bet you?

Let me count the ways.......

Poor timing,
Unreliable run ups, unknown distances,
And Miracle worker trainers....
Obviously I make figures for the track, so I bust my tail learning every little nuance I can about the ovals to do the best I can. But I've also learned enough that I really only bet the stakes races on the big days. I know it is just too tough for me with all the shenanigans going on there on a day to day basis.

Let us not forget the wildly inconsistent stewards there as well.
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Old 02-17-2020, 08:15 PM   #8
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From my spot on the risk/reward tolerance, I'd never bet one serious $1.00 on Horse racing period.

Last year, while beside Saffie's table outside 10palms, one of his crowd came to my table to get a bet in with the 10palms mobile human teller. $1000 ex box, 14-8. Hit it, paid $12.80. I couldn't do that.
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Old 02-17-2020, 11:04 PM   #9
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From my spot on the risk/reward tolerance, I'd never bet one serious $1.00 on Horse racing period.

Last year, while beside Saffie's table outside 10palms, one of his crowd came to my table to get a bet in with the 10palms mobile human teller. $1000 ex box, 14-8. Hit it, paid $12.80. I couldn't do that.

If you knew what they did, maybe you could
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Old 02-18-2020, 02:03 AM   #10
Robert Fischer
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He's a good trainer.
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Old 02-18-2020, 10:39 AM   #11
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If you knew what they did, maybe you could
You're probably right. also maybe 2K is hobby money to them. There was 4 at the table, maybe they pooled $250 each?

I love horses, I love the track, I love horse racing, I play it as a hobby.

I've been gifted the ability to bet in moderation (thank you jesus)

As far as Saffie, If I bet, I'd bet he's ok. I've orbited around him for 2 years. I've spoken to him 2-3 times about buying a horse. He offered to split a horse with me. I really like him. He's genuine, easy going & humble.
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Old 02-18-2020, 11:21 AM   #12
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You're probably right. also maybe 2K is hobby money to them. There was 4 at the table, maybe they pooled $250 each?

.
$500 each. boxed. another reason I shouldn't gamble. Math,
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Old 02-18-2020, 09:37 PM   #13
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CONCLUSION SO FAR

He is a good guy, who is training at a track where there are things going on with suspect configurations. Additionally, he has horses who keep coming at you. Owners play into this too. So then I have to do research on for example Frank Carl Calabrese for example.



My main contention is the really superior trainers win with horses that they are provided out of great breeders, for big money, eventually. The day may come for Saffie and those others to end up like that. However, until that happens, I will question why except for Navarro thus far, they do not seem to break out of the claiming ranks. With Navarro, well he seems to have tailed off a bit, and maybe is post that video that is no longer out there, because of better investment, more or less operating cleaner than ever on a relatvie basis.


I lobby for Dale Baird verbally to people to be in the Hall of Fame. The consensus is no which is too bad, but at the same time fits indirectly into my point about great trainers, and investment.
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Old 02-21-2020, 01:03 PM   #14
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Today's 4th at GP was the poster child for a Saffie Joseph horse. They just keep coming even if under a drive for a long time.
looked like horse was not slowing down as fast as front pair, not that it was speeding up
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Old 02-21-2020, 01:36 PM   #15
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looked like horse was not slowing down as fast as front pair, not that it was speeding up
I didn't say she was speeding up, dirt racing doesn't work like that. But she wasn't tiring near as much as the others despite being under a drive for a long time. That seems to be a thing with most of these guys that win at very high rates.
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