2020 US Presidential election odds

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by hcap

You never riddled me how come the cash strapped Trump, campaign is spending big on seniors?

Maybe they know a secret they have not told you?

Whether cash-strapped or not, maybe one of the strategies to fight potential voter fraud is to make one's advantage so large that any successful cheating fails to make a dent in the final outcome. It also hurts the Dems potential strategy for delaying certification of the election results when the votes are close enough to trigger a mandated re-count.

Some people believe muh Russia, and now muh Polls!

[Marshall Bennett]

Polls are useless anymore...except to leftist suckers like hcap that need some form of hope to cling to.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett

Polls are useless anymore...except to leftist suckers like hcap that need some form of hope to cling to.

THIS

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by bpiets

Hahahahahahahaha...these retired folks want thier tax raised ...?????... Must be because the investments are located in China and thus the folks that over saw thier retirement incomes are for those who no longer invest in American citizens where most got thier riches , even with hard work in some cases, but had out siders invest in off nation shores and thus gave less chance and opportunity for fellow American citizens to have the same chances and opportunities....so when Biden and the sick China investment groups, that are politically voted into office by China investments into our nation , and thier helps, you that are democrats and others will deserve what transpires in the u s of a and the world as it quickly goes into the toilet and China and Russian will flex thier muscles so that the harms predicted , that will be worse than all of the history of mankind will happen ...so enjoy your stolen benefits via those elected and empowered in the world to bring about the disasters if mr trump and company are not elected....sure am glad there were as many golf carts equal to a major commie joe rally .... and so on...wait and see...oh, all that Jesus Christ stated is happening...read it your selves...and those that He did keep from Satans grasp...well, until he left to sit at the right hand of God , his father, and has been working for about two thousand plus years...lol...enjoy the future...cause harm , suffer harms ...lol....just a small view that has merit unlike the swamp commies..selling the u s of a down the tubes because the democrats want to show the commies how communisumm should work in the world....mostly autocratic kings and queens that are on top, living in the wealth , etc, of those underneath, like in China, Russia, etc...lol...like Clinton, Obama,commie joe and family, etc...sad but let's see how the above unravels....a view point...any one else
have one that reflects on the next , out side twenty years...??? ,...plus...

This, is complete gibberish. A four year old could have compose a more intelligible post. If the is an example of Canada’s educational system, I’m glad I’m an American.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by mostpost

This, is complete gibberish. A four year old could have compose a more intelligible post. If the is an example of Canada’s educational system, I’m glad I’m an American.

Gee, he makes more sense than anything YOU have ever posted. Maybe YOU went to a shit school.....

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by mostpost

This, is complete gibberish. A four year old could have compose a more intelligible post. If the is an example of Canada’s educational system, I’m glad I’m an American.

The guy has been frequenting racing forums for years.
Mostly in search of free contests.
Seldom writes anything that can be understood.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

Honestly you don't

Speed figures are used by handicappers more than any angle (too bad for them). Yet that method will pick the winner about 35% of the time

You're ok with following data that's wrong 65% of the time? I'm not

Same with polls. A snapshot here, a snapshot there... Just like speed figures of a past performance you're looking at averages or trends over weeks of time. Totally worthless, esp in a race like this.

JMO.

I don’t want to devolve in to a discussion about speed figures but yes... when you have a lot of them you get a pretty good idea of what a horse can/will do.

Now do the same with polls where there are hundreds of them.

If you've ever been polled you'd know they don't immediately ask you who you like... they ask a bunch of qualifying questions like age, education, race, income, party ID, etc so they know how to weight your answers first.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

I don’t want to devolve in to a discussion about speed figures but yes... when you have a lot of them you get a pretty good idea of what a horse can/will do.

Now do the same with polls where there are hundreds of them.

If you've ever been polled you'd know they don't immediately ask you who you like... they ask a bunch of qualifying questions like age, education, race, income, party ID, etc so they know how to weight your answers first.

Hundreds of polls...stretched out over months...means nothing. Here's a flashback for you. It's called reality

Charlie Cook

@CharlieCookDC
·
Oct 13, 2016


Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER.


https://twitter.com/CharlieCookDC/st...44777173786624

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

Hundreds of polls...stretched out over months...means nothing. Here's a flashback for you. It's called reality

Charlie Cook

@CharlieCookDC
·
Oct 13, 2016


Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER.


https://twitter.com/CharlieCookDC/st...44777173786624

It's already been explained multiple times by myself and the people who do this for a living why the polls were wrong in 2016.

The fact that the polls were wrong in 2016, the pollsters know why they were wrong, and have since corrected that error should do the opposite of fill you with confidence.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

It's already been explained multiple times by myself and the people who do this for a living why the polls were wrong in 2016.

The fact that the polls were wrong in 2016, the pollsters know why they were wrong, and have since corrected that error should do the opposite of fill you with confidence.

Tell em to attand a rally or two. Get some reality, ya kno wha I'm sayin...

There's a real world out there. Be a part of it. See what's going on

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

The fact that the polls were wrong in 2016, the pollsters know why they were wrong, and have since corrected that error should do the opposite of fill you with confidence.

Where I think you are wrong is in the implied premise that most pollsters want to accurately gauge the level of support of each presidential candidate.

Under today's political climate, most polls are conducted for the purpose of "shaping" public opinion. Just like in the media business, most pollsters know their career paths are best served by successfully pushing the narratives of their paymasters. Pollsters therefore have no desire to correct why they got the election results wrong, but will focus on why they weren't successful in selling the desired narrative. As evidenced by the various presidential rallies, their corrections don't seem to be working very well.

From my vantage point, it looks like Trump win with an even larger margin of victory than in 2016.

Should this happen, it will be very interesting to see how long it takes after 11/03 to certify the 2020 election results.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

Whether cash-strapped or not, maybe one of the strategies to fight potential voter fraud is to make one's advantage so large that any successful cheating fails to make a dent in the final outcome. It also hurts the Dems potential strategy for delaying certification of the election results when the votes are close enough to trigger a mandated re-count.

Some people believe muh Russia, and now muh Polls!

Voter fraud is nonsense. As id your argument.

Biden outraised Trump 3-1 in August, erasing Trump’s cash advantage
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/202...mp-3-1-august/

n a matter of months, Democratic nominee Joe Biden erased President Donald Trump’s once-massive financial advantage that he’d been building up since the early days of his presidency.

Some Democratic strategists called Trump’s mountain of campaign cash “insurmountable.” But record-smashing fundraising by the Biden campaign — and free spending from the Trump camp — helped Democrats catch up and actually surpass the Republican reelection effort.

Biden’s campaign raised $210 million in August, more than tripling the Trump campaign’s $62 million haul, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Biden banked $80 million while Trump only saved $8 million, allowing Biden to report more cash on hand for the first time this cycle.

[hcap]

And....

Trump campaign broke, withdraws ads in critical states
https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2020/1...itical-states/

US President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign has been struggling with its budget so much that it’s been forced to pull TV ads in a bunch of the states most key to his chances of winning in November.

But, according to Trump, it’s all part of an ingenious plan that’s too complex for Americans to understand.

In a series of late-night tweets, Trump denied that his campaign is in dire straits, despite documents showing otherwise.

“I keep reading Fake News stories that my campaign is running low on money,” he wrote.
..........................................

Snap out of it Trumpites. He is full of it and lying to you.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

Where I think you are wrong is in the implied premise that most pollsters want to accurately gauge the level of support of each presidential candidate.

Under today's political climate, most polls are conducted for the purpose of "shaping" public opinion. Just like in the media business, most pollsters know their career paths are best served by successfully pushing the narratives of their paymasters. Pollsters therefore have no desire to correct why they got the election results wrong, but will focus on why they weren't successful in selling the desired narrative. As evidenced by the various presidential rallies, their corrections don't seem to be working very well.

From my vantage point, it looks like Trump win with an even larger margin of victory than in 2016.

Should this happen, it will be very interesting to see how long it takes after 11/03 to certify the 2020 election results.

No, pollsters are best served by being accurate.

They make their money by demonstrating the ability to accurately being able to compile data.

There is a reason pollsters who are trying to shape "public opinion" are quickly herding with others a la Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and IBD.

If you want to sell this theory you need to explain why Trump friendly outlier polls are the ones with the largest moves in Biden's direction lately.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by hcap

Voter fraud is nonsense. As id your argument.

Biden outraised Trump 3-1 in August, erasing Trump’s cash advantage
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/202...mp-3-1-august/

n a matter of months, Democratic nominee Joe Biden erased President Donald Trump’s once-massive financial advantage that he’d been building up since the early days of his presidency.

Some Democratic strategists called Trump’s mountain of campaign cash “insurmountable.” But record-smashing fundraising by the Biden campaign — and free spending from the Trump camp — helped Democrats catch up and actually surpass the Republican reelection effort.

Biden’s campaign raised $210 million in August, more than tripling the Trump campaign’s $62 million haul, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Biden banked $80 million while Trump only saved $8 million, allowing Biden to report more cash on hand for the first time this cycle.

Cash advantage sometimes MEANS NOTHING....M. Bloomberg & T. Steyer proved THAT point excellently ALREADY....