speed figures analysis ?

[formula_2002]

Hey boys, I not trying to get people po'd here.
I'm giving my opion and attempting to support it with facts.


I'm more then willing to read anyone's position on winning or losing. Meaningful numbers always get my attention.

The concept of the web page has not changed, and I always welcome your comments.

If anyone is making steady profits in a game that has a win pool take-out of 15 to 18% and where we all have basically the same information, there is more meaningfull work for them.

Wall street, the cia, the bio-sciences, the federal reserve, and medicine can all benefit by engaging such minds.

Joe M

[PaceAdvantage]

I've known Joe M. since the old Prodigy Horse Racing Bulletin board days. Go a little easier on him....he's a good guy....

Debate the hell out of the topic with him, but there is no need to drag it down to a lower level.....

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Lefty
I can't do a heart transplant. So, obviously, it can't be done.

I'm not an expert at heart transplants either, and I dont try to be, else you know I'd be the very best...

[Lefty]

Formula, you say there's more meaningful work for anyone that can beat the takeout...
Sometimes, it's not always about the money, but knowing you've done something that most of society says can't be done.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by dav4463
Trifectas have the highest takeout, but if played right, can definitely make a profit.

Care to give us one of your examples of playing it right.

[dav4463]

I have had success with trifectas when I am able to play races with a chance of a big hit. I rank the horses from 1-6 and pick a key horse. For me to play a trifecta, I want to concentrate on those races where at least 2 of my top 6 ranked are 10-1 or higher at about 3 MTP, or at least one at 20-1 or higher. Then structure tickets involving those big odds horses. For example top choice at 5-2, 2nd pick at 4-1, 3rd at 11-1 , 4th at 22-1 , 5th at 5-1, 6th at 4-1.........................I would key my top choice on top with 3,4 with 3,4,2,5,6 and then another tri with top pick with 3,4,2,5,6 with 3,4...........I always try to cut down the bet size by keying the longer odds horses for the place and show spots....even better when a longer odds horse is my top pick. I also try not to play the favorite in the show spot, because the boxers hurt the price. Many times the exacta is a much better bet if the favorite finishes third. Demanding at least two horses at 10-1 or higher insures the chance of the big payoffs while eliminating those plays where the trifecta doesn't pay much. Due to such a low hit rate...might as well go for the payoffs. On the tickets where the favorite is not your top pick but is in the top 6 ranked, replace with a longshot bomb in the show spot who may stagger home for third.

[Fastracehorse]

I've told you that for months.

I'll say it again: You believe quantity speaks volumes. That is, your 1 million horse database based on a thousand factors gives it ultimate credibility.

When in reality, you really don't understand handicapping or else you would take the quality approach - ie, understanding what a horse really needs to win and, what a trainer does to point horses to run well.

You in fact, take a less intellectual approach and because of it, recieve, a very ineffective result.

Such is the shagrin of a #'s cruncher.

PA said your a nice guy and I feel an allegiance to any fellow horse player, but your methods will give you handicapping colic.

fffastt

[SAL]

fffastt,

I agree with you here. Though tbred racing is a game where you can pump thousands of stats through a database, the bottom line is you still have to HANDICAP to be successful.

The reality is:

You can't bet every race.
You can't bet every track.
You can't like the same stats that everybody else likes.

Sometimes, you just have to go with your "gut feeling' about a horse or a race.

I know the game can be beaten, because I know someone that is making a living doing exactly that. I'm sure there are a lot of players on this board who make money at this game every year.

Joe, good luck in your continued research, may you find the magic formula to beat the takeout.

SAL

[hurrikane]

Joe,
At first you are a bit insulting. After thinking about it you may be my biggest asset.

You have ballyhooed the need to compare everything to the odds. That you have all the data for this or for that. Your 'global data' decisions are the only way you can invest in this business. That if you want to win you have to do things your way. And, oh, by the way, your way is a loser. Go figure.

As I see it you're thinking and acting like every other lemming in this game. You try to select the best horse and like a friggin zombie off you go to make the bet.

IMHO this game isn't about picking horses. It's about waiting for the public to make a mistake. There are many many ways to do that and not one involves one friggin 'global' pick.

In every walk of life there are winners and losers. Every winner I've ever met has sat by and laughed at every damn loser that says authoritatively, "it can't be done, it can't be done".

At first I was insulted. But actually I embrace you. I understand that without people like you saying 'it can't be done', and trying to convince other losers that "it can't be done", there could be no winners.

The fact is without losers ..there can be no winners.

hmmm...maybe I'll start telling everyone to go to your website. lol

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Lefty
Formula, you say there's more meaningful work for anyone that can beat the takeout...
Sometimes, it's not always about the money, but knowing you've done something that most of society says can't be done.

My point was helping society, because it NEEDED to be done.

[formula_2002]

OK so far its 11 of you guys against me when I say "no one can beat the take-out"

How many of you can I whittle away if I say only up to 1% of the bettors can beat the take-out?



Joe M

[formula_2002]

hurrikane@HTR


You just gave me an idea how I can market all of my data.

I'm going to send letters to all the race tracks and tell them, unless they give me 1 million dollars (a month), I'm going to turn my "non-commercial" web page into an activist web site promoting anti-horse race betting.

Membership is free, and all monies collected from the track will be distributed to web site members and other needy.


Joe M

[cj]

Originally posted by formula_2002
OK so far its 11 of you guys against me when I say "no one can beat the take-out"

How many of you can I whittle away if I say only up to 1% of the bettors can beat the take-out?

Joe M

I would think the percentage is higher than 1% overall. Many people who lose have a gambling problem, and they lose big, just like the craps players .

As for this board, I'd say the % of winners is higher than the overall % in the general population. Just my opinion.

CJ

[karlskorner]

All those months of wonderful "stats" and now this. Here I thought I was in the land of "high flying" Eagles" and me just a Kiwi bird walking around on the ground, depressing.

I am heading out early to the track, find Dr. Feelgood with a Boston Creme doughnout and coffee, find a bench in the paddock and try to understand what is happening.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by formula_2002
I'm going to turn my "non-commercial" web page into an activist web site promoting anti-horse race betting.

Joe M

Before you do that you might think about changing the name of your web site.

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