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05-21-2017, 07:49 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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what is your fav handicapping angle
Mine- go with two horses (key), that has run over the track and same distance( or close to it), then start to put them at the top 2 spots and take 4 other horses..horse must have run over the track last 30 days.
1-2/1-2-3-4-5-6( exacta)
1-2/1-2-3-4-5-6/1-2-3-4-5-6 tri(.50 cent)
1-2/1-2-3-4-5-6/1-2-7-8-9/1-2-3-4-5-6(.10 super)
1-2/1-2-7-8-9/1-2-3-4-5-6/all(.10 cent super)
then bring down the 1-2
3-4-5-6/1-2 exacta
3-4-5-6/1-2/3-4-5-6 tri
3-4-5-6/1-2/7-8-9/all .10 super
7-8-9 have no shot to win and they will not beat both 1-2
1-2 at the top, i use them in the next 3 spots, thinking that race is going the way i handicapped, since 1 or 2 won the race
if 1-2 comes in second, i usually do not put 1-2 at the 3rd spot, since chances of my horse coming in 2 and 3rd is low and race is not going the way i am thinking
today Belmont race 6 msw..Number 10 and 8
if both horses miss the top 2 spots, you get wiped out
Last edited by n.c; 05-21-2017 at 07:51 PM.
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05-21-2017, 08:07 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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3 out of the money finishes, class drop, track switch, 6-1 or better.
Works miracles.
Allan
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05-21-2017, 08:19 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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i use class drop
if horse has early speed
last week, msw to mcl , churchill downs
Eddie Kenneally and Donnie Von Hemel both had early speed fade msw droppers
while both around ml 5-1
Kenneally horse went out at 7/2 while Von Hemel goes out at 11-1
Kenneally horse won and VonHemel came 2nd...Was able to zero in on the Keneally horse at the top due to the shift in line.
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05-21-2017, 08:37 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Here's a retired friend's only angle at my OTB:
Horse was ITM 3rd race back, last two races out of the money. Odds 9-1 minimum, preferably last race finished within 8 beaten lengths, preferably both last two races. He wants last race to have been in a month more or less.
He sits likes a sphinx until he gets his odds. Seen him cash prices in the 60-100+ range. Will play wps if odds warrant it. He's a patient guy and has all his possible plays written in a notebook along with his Daily program.
He also uses this play for simulcast at Chile.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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05-21-2017, 08:43 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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that angle
could work, towards the end of the meet.. last 2-3 days of the meet..most of the good trainers dumping horses and majority of the horses tired...so you have a horse that looks bad on the form, but is not a tired horse.
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05-21-2017, 08:48 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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woodbine had this scenario
last day of the meet, top 4 horses all bombs, paid .20cent superfecta 76,000 dollars last year.
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05-21-2017, 09:02 PM
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#7
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Here's a retired friend's only angle at my OTB:
Horse was ITM 3rd race back, last two races out of the money. Odds 9-1 minimum, preferably last race finished within 8 beaten lengths, preferably both last two races. He wants last race to have been in a month more or less.
He sits likes a sphinx until he gets his odds. Seen him cash prices in the 60-100+ range. Will play wps if odds warrant it. He's a patient guy and has all his possible plays written in a notebook along with his Daily program.
He also uses this play for simulcast at Chile.
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Trace:
I like your friend's angle (naturally, being a horseplayer I'd need to "fix" it before playing it )
I'd guess any success he has ---has as much to do with his money discipline and record-keeping--as the angle.
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05-21-2017, 09:56 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
3 out of the money finishes, class drop, track switch, 6-1 or better.
Works miracles.
Allan
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Along that same line, for a horse coming back off a long layoff, I had an angle called the Big three to be a possible play in order of preference: Class Drop, Distance change(1 f. min.), and Jockey change with min. 4-1 odds. If not a win bet, I usually included in exactas with my top play. A 4th angle on layoffs along with the Big Three was a Track change, but it didn't have as high a correlation as the other three. If none of them existed, it was a red flag to me. Preferred to have at least two of three, but all three or even four catches my interest.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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05-21-2017, 10:06 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,477
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Got this one from Andy Beyers Picking Winners:
Change of pace, especially with maidens.
Race 1 Showed early speed and quit.
Race 2 closed.
This can be reversed.
I've made some nice scores with this.
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05-22-2017, 08:03 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Here's a retired friend's only angle at my OTB:
Horse was ITM 3rd race back, last two races out of the money. Odds 9-1 minimum, preferably last race finished within 8 beaten lengths, preferably both last two races. He wants last race to have been in a month more or less.
He sits likes a sphinx until he gets his odds. Seen him cash prices in the 60-100+ range. Will play wps if odds warrant it. He's a patient guy and has all his possible plays written in a notebook along with his Daily program.
He also uses this play for simulcast at Chile.
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Any idea how much he wagers on his picks?
__________________
Live to play another day.
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05-22-2017, 09:49 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Any idea how much he wagers on his picks?
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Enough that he was able to retire.
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05-22-2017, 09:53 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
Enough that he was able to retire.
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The $2-bettors DON'T retire?
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Live to play another day.
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05-22-2017, 03:17 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Favorite angle. I have 2 horses in a race of which I think are roughly equals in ability, everybody else looks mediocre at best. One horse is 9/5, the other one is 5-1. I bet the 5-1 and double key both in exotics. That's it.
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05-22-2017, 04:35 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Any idea how much he wagers on his picks?
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From what I've seen it's usually in the $5-10 range with an occasional $20 bet. Retired, disabled at 66 with a bad leg and now back living off his pension, IRA and SS. The OTB gets him out of the house, where he can nurse one or two beers and smoke while watching a few races. He tells me some days he doesn't bet, and passes at 8-1. In spite of his one way of playing, he's pretty knowledgeable about handicapping. Many of the guys at the OTB don't have PP's or programs, they just play $.10 supers all day looking at ML's. One guy told me, it beats sitting at home alone all day(widower).
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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05-22-2017, 04:43 PM
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#15
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,269
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Horse showed speed in a sprint and now drops in class and stretches out to a route.
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