To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

[jimmyb]

Originally Posted by Light

In both PA and jimmyb's case, have your experiments revealed a key handicapping factor or factors (besides odds) that must be present for a bet? Or is this just "conventional" handicapping?

I don't know what you mean by conventional but here is what I did. I assign a score to each horse based on a 30% pace value (most geared to early), 30 % to speed (most geared to it's highest speed figure), and 40% to fitness. The animal with the highest score gets a couple of more tests.

1: It has to have the highest or second highest it's last or next to last race, specific to that race

2: It must be 6-1 or higher morning line.

Pretty simple. A good information source is invaluable, don't scimp on this.

[Light]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

I don't know what you mean by conventional...

I meant is what you did in your experiment different than the way you normally handicap.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Light

In both PA and jimmyb's case, have your experiments revealed a key handicapping factor or factors (besides odds) that must be present for a bet? Or is this just "conventional" handicapping?

Yes, TFUS numbers...and a much fiddled with oddsline generator...I've been trying to get this to work for a couple of years now...

[jimmyb]

Originally Posted by Light

I meant is what you did in your experiment different than the way you normally handicap.

Slightly different, yes. Just rearranging the percentages and adding the last two steps.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Another new high after today...12%

Top pick went 3 for 8 and returned $27.90

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (47 Days):

99 for 457 | $914 Wagered | $1024.90 Returned | $1.12 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

All plays went 5 for 28 and returned $50.10

ALL PICKS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (47 Days):

159 for 1099 | $2198 Wagered | $1993.50 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Congrats ! Care to comment on what a %.04 decrease in take out would mean to your ROI?

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow, how the mighty have fallen...

My posting of picks has ended as I have reached the 500+ mark, but I ended up LOSING THE LAST 33 RACES IN A ROW...and my ROI plummeted to only 4%

Here are the final numbers:

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (54 Days):

108 for 528 | $1056 Wagered | $1093.80 Returned | $1.04 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

All plays went 0 for 39 and returned $0

ALL PICKS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (54 Days):

173 for 1261 | $2522 Wagered | $2120.80 returned | $0.84 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Not a good way to finish up...

[pandy]

Mike, on your top pick overlays, do you know what the average odds was?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by pandy

Mike, on your top pick overlays, do you know what the average odds was?

I don't actually have that info...my record keeping wasn't much beyond recording wins and losses....

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I don't actually have that info...my record keeping wasn't much beyond recording wins and losses....

First off, I congratulate you on a fine showing, using a simplified method for betting your top pick overlays. In this day and age, I doubt that few have accomplished a +ROI over 500 plays using such a basic approach.

Now, as far as the "other" plays, this should convince anyone how difficult it is to make a profit betting only for overlay value on anything other than your own best play in a race. The solution of course is to pass, pass, pass when the value's not there in the win or exacta pools, on your specific play in the race. Does it get boring? Sure it does, but that's part of the "normalcy" of the game when playing for profit and not just for fun.

As far as your 33 race losing streak, you know that this is normal as you've stated, and you're far away from setting any kind of losing streak record of futility, in comparison to my own negative streaks. It looks to me like you're close to having something of real value long-term, with better record keeping and analyzation of odds layering just for starters, you will improve on what foundation you've already laid.....The rest is up to you, good luck.

[PaceAdvantage]

Who you calling "simplified?"

Just kidding...thanks for your thoughts...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Now, as far as the "other" plays, this should convince anyone how difficult it is to make a profit betting only for overlay value on anything other than your own best play in a race.

It also shows that it's pretty difficult to maintain a lofty ROI in this game...in spite of the grandiose ROI claims that we sometimes see on this board.

[lamboguy]

some of the best results that i have ever seen in this game are from the smaller players.

the job our leader did was no doubt remarkable. but in the real world no one is going to put in the time and hard work to bet $10 and $20 per race. had he have been betting a semi normal amount of money into the parimutuel pools like say $100-$200 he would not have had a positive roi. as good as his system is, its still a tough way to make a living.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

some of the best results that i have ever seen in this game are from the smaller players.

the job our leader did was no doubt remarkable. but in the real world no one is going to put in the time and hard work to bet $10 and $20 per race. had he have been betting a semi normal amount of money into the parimutuel pools like say $100-$200 he would not have had a positive roi. as good as his system is, its still a tough way to make a living.

With rebates he would have...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by menifee

With rebates he would have...

true but you don't get the breakage back which is the hidden croaker.

no 2 ways about it, his results were amazing and might be able to be fine tuned a bit to produce slightly better results.

i watched them because i knew there is plenty of merit to pace handicapping, i just didn't know if it was enough to show a profit, which it did and a good one at that 4%. not only that he was sitting at 9% with 2 days to go which is basically unheard of.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

First off, I congratulate you on a fine showing, using a simplified method for betting your top pick overlays. In this day and age, I doubt that few have accomplished a +ROI over 500 plays using such a basic approach.

Now, as far as the "other" plays, this should convince anyone how difficult it is to make a profit betting only for overlay value on anything other than your own best play in a race. The solution of course is to pass, pass, pass when the value's not there in the win or exacta pools, on your specific play in the race. Does it get boring? Sure it does, but that's part of the "normalcy" of the game when playing for profit and not just for fun.

As far as your 33 race losing streak, you know that this is normal as you've stated, and you're far away from setting any kind of losing streak record of futility, in comparison to my own negative streaks. It looks to me like you're close to having something of real value long-term, with better record keeping and analyzation of odds layering just for starters, you will improve on what foundation you've already laid.....The rest is up to you, good luck.

First, let me commend Mike for his noteworthy achievement.

My concern for future sustainability (at the 1.04 ROI level, or even any positive ROI) is that at the current rate, the projected number of Win bet plays would come in around 3000 per year, and with all the sophisticated sharpies playing this game, I have doubt that significant-enough value can be reliably identified in this many plays per year. Based on the total number of races last year, this would result in a play of about 1 out of every 14 races. A significant number of races have field sizes of 7 or less, making the process of finding sufficient-enough value in those races after overcoming the takeout rate extremely hard.

My suggestion would be the bolded red words for the TOP picks. IMO you need to tighten/refine your methodology in such a way that it reduces the current level of yearly plays by at least 50%, and 60-70% will probably be even better. These refinements will involve increasing the value return of each play, and may also have the benefit of lessening the length of the associated losing streaks. As ReplayRandall noted, it can become quite boring, but it is about winning, which means doing the things others are not willing to do. By increasing your Selectivity, you will give your methodology the opportunity to yield even better results, which are hopefully both profitable and sustainable.

Should you decide to make any revisions/modifications, it would be interesting to continue to track today's current method as well just to see how is does going foward.

Wishing you well with these challenges!